Generational Dynamics World View News

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Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

John wrote:11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey


Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey

Contents:
Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
Russia will finally be forced to choose sides -- between al-Assad and Turkey
It will be interesting since the US and Europe aren't going to make any effort to support Turkey. Erdogan has burned too many bridges so now Turkey is dangling it's dangly bits over the fire all alone.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: If Russia backs out
Warren Dew wrote: > I don't think Russia has to take a side. They can just refrain
> from intervening on either side, and let Turkey and Syria fight it
> out.
When Russia entered the war on the side of al-Assad in 2015, it was
after al-Assad said that he was losing the war. Russia and Iran
(through Hezbollah) intervened and saved al-Assad from defeat.

Syria is in a generational Awakening era. Al-Assad's Alawite army had
little will to fight, and was beset by a continuing stream of
desertions. Al-Assad was saved by Russia and Hezbollah.

Today, of course, Hezbollah has problems of its own, since Trump
imposed sanctions on Hezbollah's puppetmaster, Iran, so that Iran has
had to substantially cut funding. At the same time, Lebanon itself is
dealing with street riots and a government near collapse.

So what would happen if Russia simply pulled out, and left Turkey and
al-Assad to fight each other? My guess is that the most likely
scenario is that al-Assad's government would collapse, and that
Erdogan would go through Idlib and keep going until he reached
Damascus.

That would be a disastrous loss of face for both Russia and Iran.

So I don't believe that Russia could simply walk away.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Erdogan's threat
Xeraphim1 wrote: > It will be interesting since the US and Europe aren't going to
> make any effort to support Turkey. Erdogan has burned too many
> bridges so now Turkey is dangling it's dangly bits over the fire
> all alone.
Well, maybe. But Erdogan still retains a big threat over Europe. If
Erdogan is forced to open the border to a million Syrian refugees
from Idlib, then a lot of them would go on to Europe -- which is where
they really want to go. That's potentially a political disaster for
the EU. So the EU has plenty at stake in the Idlib war.

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Erdogan's threat
Xeraphim1 wrote: > It will be interesting since the US and Europe aren't going to
> make any effort to support Turkey. Erdogan has burned too many
> bridges so now Turkey is dangling it's dangly bits over the fire
> all alone.
Well, maybe. But Erdogan still retains a big threat over Europe. If
Erdogan is forced to open the border to a million Syrian refugees
from Idlib, then a lot of them would go on to Europe -- which is where
they really want to go. That's potentially a political disaster for
the EU. So the EU has plenty at stake in the Idlib war.
I was reminded the other day why one doesn't fry bacon while naked by frying bacon while naked.

There seems to be quite A LOT of dangly bits exposed and hanging over fires in the world right now, doesn't there?

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

I find it interesting how we are reacting to this with panic, compared to how we reacted to earlier outbreaks and epidemics.
Even Ebola did not create such draconian measures.
Maybe because we are deeper in a Crisis Era?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Tom Mazanec wrote:I find it interesting how we are reacting to this with panic, compared to how we reacted to earlier outbreaks and epidemics.
Even Ebola did not create such draconian measures.
Maybe because we are deeper in a Crisis Era?
And.... Bingo was 'is name, oh...!!

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I find it more quite telling that the WHO goes out of its to explain that it won't call this virus the 'Chinese flu' or the 'Wuhan virus' (which is what Taiwanese call it) and yet MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) is alright with them. I'm calling BS on this. China once again flexes its muscles and the UN jumps, just like it did in 2003 when the CCP criminally hid the SARS epidemic for 3 or 4 months.

And yes, this could easily bring down Beijing. Barring that, regional civil war. This crisis has confirmed what we have always known: THE CCP DOESN"T CARE WHAT HAPPENS TO ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.

#Free China!

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus Covid-19
Guest wrote: > I find it more quite telling that the WHO goes out of its to
> explain that it won't call this virus the 'Chinese flu' or the
> 'Wuhan virus' (which is what Taiwanese call it) and yet MERS
> (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) is alright with them. I'm
> calling BS on this. China once again flexes its muscles and the UN
> jumps, just like it did in 2003 when the CCP criminally hid the
> SARS epidemic for 3 or 4 months.

> And yes, this could easily bring down Beijing. Barring that,
> regional civil war. This crisis has confirmed what we have always
> known: THE CCP DOESN"T CARE WHAT HAPPENS TO ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.

> #Free China!
You're right that the WHO has been sucking up to the Chinese. The
American CDC doesn't suck up to the Chinese, so they weren't allowed
to go to Wuhan, but WHO has been allowed, probably under strict
supervision by Chinese "minders." (The WHO delegation supposed will
contain some CDC scientists.)

And you make a good point that it was OK to use the name MERS for the
Middle Eastern virus, but not OK to use Wuhan in the name of the Wuhan
virus, which is now officially called Coronavirus Covid-19.

News reports on Tuesday have been extremely schizophrenic, flipping
back and forth between calling it a major international crisis on the
one hand versus a peaking crisis on the other hand. Nobody really
knows.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Tensions grow between Turkey and Russia over Idlib

Image
  • Syrians fleeing with their belongings head northwards toward
    the border with Turkey


Anti-Assad rebels in Syria's Idlib province on Tuesday shot down shot
down a military helicopter belonging to the army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. All crew members were killed in a fiery crash. The
anti-Assad rebels claimed that the helicopter had been dropping barrel
bombs on civilian neighborhoods.

This comes as al-Assad's ground forces, backed by Russia and Iran,
continued to advance in Idlib towards the Turkish forces in
"observation posts," whose job is to assure that previous
"de-escalation zone" agreement in Idlib honored. In the past, Russia
and Syria have honored these agreements, but have used them as cover
to continue attacking al-Assad's Sunni Arab political enemies.

Turkish forces have retaliated and killed over 100 Syrian forces
during the last week.

Russia is siding with al-Assad, and is demanding that Turkey stop
attacking Syrian forces.

Turkey's politicians are becoming increasingly nationalistic, and some
political opponents of Recep Tayyip Erdogan are demanding that Turkish
forces keep fighting through Idlib, all the way to Damascus.

According to some Turkish press reports, there have been meetings
between American and Turkish officials, leading the Russians to worry
that, after years of estrangement, Turkey and America are reconciling,
and America will provide some sort of support to Turkey in Idlib.
This possibility is said to be worrying the Russians, who for years
have been doing everything possible to pull Turkey away from America,
Nato and the EU.

The situation remains chaotic and in flux.

---- Sources:

-- Russia wary of Turkey turning to U.S. over Idlib - columnist
https://ahvalnews.com/russia-turkey/rus ... -columnist
(Ahval News, Ankara, 5-Feb-2020)

-- Rebels shoot down Syrian helicopter as fighting intensifies
https://www.theledger.com/news/20200211 ... ntensifies
(AP, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Idlib / Erdogan Threatens Military Escalation in Syria
https://www.voanews.com/europe/erdogan- ... tion-syria
(VOA, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Intel: Turkish demands on Idlib complicate Russia’s pursuit of
compromise
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... -deal.html
(Al-Monitor, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey's options dry up in Syria as Russia backs Assad push
https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-options-d ... a-52344299
(Deutsche-Welle, 11-Feb-2020)

-- Kremlin to Turkey: Help Stop Attacks on Syrian and Russian Forces
in Idlib
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/ ... lib-a69238
(Reuters, 11-Feb-2020)

---- Related articles:

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200211



** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200209

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 12-Feb-2020 World View: WHO investigation team in China
David Horn wrote: > WHO has a mandate to address potential global pandemics, so
> anything they can do is better than nothing. But yes, the Chinese
> are unwilling to look bad, so what can be done is less than what
> should be done. More to the point, the global panic is starting
> to get serious. There is a Holland-America cruise ship (The
> Westerdam) bobbing around in the Pacific with zero infected
> passengers and no authorized port to dock until Cambodia finally
> agreed to let them in. It was their third try. Japan said no,
> and so did Thailand.
WHO is a political organization, controlled by the UN politicians.
For investigations, it depends on working with the CDC and other
similar organizations in the West.

Starting from mid-January, the US offered to send a team of CDC
scientists to Wuhan to investigate and offer what help they could.
The Chinese blocked, and continue to block, the CDC team and, at the
same time, China's Foreign Ministry accused the US for refusing to
help China. This is typical of the CCP asshole thugs speaking out of
both sides of their mouths, and suggests that it's very likely that
the Chinese are hiding something that they don't want anyone to know
about the source of the outbreak.

Whether this goes beyond simply "not willing to look bad" remains to
be seen. The fact that they're blocking investigations, censoring
media, and letting whistleblowers die already makes them look bad.
What more are they hiding?

The WHO team has not yet arrived in China. I've been listening to a
WHO press conference, and in the last few minutes I was surprised to
hear that WHO and the Chinese are "negotiating the composition of the
team" to be sent to China. That team, including CDC scientists,
should have been there weeks ago, even if it makes the CCP thugs "look
bad." In other words, the CCP thugs are going to do everything they
can to prevent the WHO team from doing any real investigation.

There still remains the question of what the CCP thugs are hiding.

Update: The WHO leader has said, "Now is not the time for
recriminations." In response to a question, the WHO leader just said:
"Now is not the time to do forensics. Now is the time to fight this
virus." Presumably, "forensics" refers to investigations that the CCP
will do everything possible to hide.

WHO is emphasizing that this outbreak can go in any direction, and
that all countries must be prepared. This is a message to the whole
world, and is also a message to the CCP thugs to tell them to stop
screwing around.

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