Generational Dynamics World View News

[Trevor]

I've been hearing some people make comparisons between the coronavirus and Chernobyl. It could end up having a similar effect on the CCP. I think most people realize they're doing everything they can to downplay what's going on, but the open question is by how much are they underreporting the effects. It's already worse than SARS and is impacting their economy.

From what I read, the rate of increase is supposedly slowing, but I'm not about to take that at face value.

[John]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View:Turkey, Russia, Syria accusations over Idlib seem to be spiraling out of control


Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that they
will no longer honor their Astana and Sochi agreements with Russia,
and will strike at the regime forces of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad anywhere, unless the regime forces are pulled back.

> "The [Syria] regime, backed by Russian forces and
> Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians,
> committing massacres and shedding blood.

> I hereby declare that we will strike regime forces everywhere from
> now on regardless of the Sochi deal if any tiny bit of harm comes
> to our soldiers at observation posts or elsewhere. ...

> Turkey is determined to push back Syrian regime forces from
> Turkey’s observation posts in Idlib by the end of February.

> [To push back the Syrian forces, Turkey] will do what is necessary
> via land and air without hesitation. ...

> Nobody is safe where the blood of Turkish soldiers is shed. ...
> Turkey will use its full force. ...

> At this point, we will not shut our eyes to excess, radicalism,
> treason and provocation of someone [in Syria]."

Russia's spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded:

> "At the moment, we consider the most important thing
> is the implementation of ... agreements (between Russia and
> Turkey) ... and of course the suppression of any terrorist
> activity directed against the Syrian armed forces and Russian
> military facilities. We consider such sorties from Idlib
> unacceptable."

"Terrorist" is a weasel-word used by the Russians. In public
statements, they demand that Turkey somehow separate out the
"terrorists" from the civilians, so that al-Assad can kill the
"terrorists" and leave the civilians alone. But al-Assad considers
all 3.5 million Arab Sunni men, women and children in Idlib to be
"terrorists," all cockroaches to be exterminated in any way possible.

The Russian defence ministry used these weasel words on Wednesday,
blaming the crisis in Idlib on "failure by Turkish colleagues to
fulfil their obligations on separating fighters from the moderate
opposition from terrorists."

Syria's foreign ministry in Damascus issued a statement:

> "The head of the Turkish regime comes with
> empty... statements only issued by a person disconnected from
> reality."

Turkey and Russia have been in a "marriage of convenience" with
regards to Syria policy at least since 2015, when Russia entered the
war in Syria. This marriage has been extremely difficult, which is
not surprising, since Turks and Russians have shared many centuries of
mutual hatred and generational crisis wars:

** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151125


Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a "divorce of
inconvenience," and a new generational crisis war between the Sunni
Muslim Turks and the Orthodox Christian Russians.

Turkish media are saying hopefully that the marriage of convenience
will continue, in view of relationships in many areas, including
"trade, tourism, Black Sea, Balkans, Middle East, especially Syria,
Libya, defense industry (S-400s), energy (nuclear Akkuyu and energy
transmission lines) etc. It is possible to extend the list."

Nonetheless, Russia is clearly siding with the Syrian regime against
Turkey, and positions on all sides seem to be hardening. The
situation in Idlib seems to be spinning out of control.



---- Sources:

-- Erdogan / 'Turkey to hit regime anywhere if troops harmed again'
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/tu ... in/1731665
(Anadolu, Ankara, 12-Feb-2020)

-- End of proxy war: Turkey-Russia tensions rise over Syria
https://middle-east-online.com/en/end-p ... over-syria
(Middle East Online, 12-Feb-2020)

---- Related Posts and Articles:

*** 11-Feb-2020 World View: Tensions grow between Turkey and Russia over Idlib
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 957#p49957

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200209

[John]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View: Huge jump in Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) cases and deaths

In the last couple of hours, China's Hubei province, which contains
the city of Wuhan, has just reported a huge jump in the number of
confirmed cases of Wuhan Coronavirus, now officially named Covid-19.

The number of reported cases had been leveling off, giving hope that
the virus cases might have peaked. On Wednesday, for example, the
number of new cases in Hubei was reported to be 1,310, and in all of
China's mainland as 2,015.

But on Thursday, Hubei reported 14,840 new cases, a huge jump.

The big jump is being blamed on a new methodology for identifying
confirmed cases. But it's not clear how the new methodology affected
the results.

However, another number has taken a big jump, and counting for this
number is being done the old fashioned way.

Health officials in Hubei province said 242 people had died from the
virus on Wednesday, compared to 97 on Tuesday, and 103 on Monday. The
big jump in the number of confirmed cases might be explained by a new
methodology for counting cases, but you can't explain the jump in
deaths by a new methodology for counting dead people.

As usual, we have no idea whether the CCP thugs are lying or hiding
something or are totally incompetent -- and it's probably that they're
totally incompetent, since they're pretty incompetent about everything
else as well. And we note again the fact that for weeks the CCP thugs
have been refusing to allow the American CDC scientists come to Hubei
province to investigate.

Still, 14,840 new cases in one day, however explained, is very
concerning. We're beginning to see larger outbreaks elsewhere,
including Singapore with 50 cases.

---- Sources:

-- Coronavirus death toll leaps in China's Hubei province
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN207025
(Reuters, 12-Feb-2020)

-- 18,480 new cases / Virus deaths in China's Hubei rises by 242
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/l ... 6159a8f568
(AP, 13-Feb-2020)

-- Coronavirus latest updates: deaths in China pass 1,300 with huge
jump in cases – live news
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news
(Guardian, London, 12-Feb-2020)

[John]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View: Lung imaging

> Previously they were counting only cases that were confirmed by
> test and hospitalized, so they weren't counting even confirmed
> cases that were turned away from the hospital. That was obviously
> a suspect method, and maybe they're now counting all confirmed
> cases.

> Perhaps they've started counting deaths that occur outside the
> hospital as well.

AFP: "This means officials can use lung imaging on suspected cases to
diagnose the virus, rather than the standard nucleic acid tests."

-- China’s virus death toll surges to over 240 in a day
https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/02/artic ... -in-a-day/
(AFP, 13-Feb-2020)

[Guest]

Three days ago, I would have laughed if someone had told me this was a bio-weapon leak. Now, after what I have read, I think it was. If the Chinese CCP are innocent, then why do they act so guilty? If this disease has been weaponized, the whole world is in real trouble. The CCP won't release a lot of genetic profile information to the CDC or WHO. Speculation is that it would point to the virus being man made and weaponized.

One other aspect of these types of disease is the 'double-hit'. I listened to medical experts saying that SARS was usually in two phases. The first infection was a bad flu, but when the patient was infected for a second time, SARS killed him. This might happen again, which would mean the patients being released could still die if infected a second time.

[John]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus bioweapon rumor

> Three days ago, I would have laughed if someone had told me this
> was a bio-weapon leak. Now, after what I have read, I think it
> was. If the Chinese CCP are innocent, then why do they act so
> guilty? If this disease has been weaponized, the whole world is
> in real trouble. The CCP won't release a lot of genetic profile
> information to the CDC or WHO. Speculation is that it would point
> to the virus being man made and weaponized.

> One other aspect of these types of disease is the 'double-hit'. I
> listened to medical experts saying that SARS was usually in two
> phases. The first infection was a bad flu, but when the patient
> was infected for a second time, SARS killed him. This might happen
> again, which would mean the patients being released could still
> die if infected a second time.

This biowar rumor keeps popping up, but it's still in the category of
alarmist and totally lacking in evidence.

The only "evidence" that people point to is the extremely paranoid
behavior of the CCP.

The problem is that "extremely paranoid behavior" is normal for the
CCP thugs. They view Christianity as a Western social movement to
overthrow the CCP. They view "democracy" as a Western ideology whose
only purpose is to undermine the CCP.

What the CCP thugs would really like to do is figure out a way to
claim that the coronavirus is a biowar weapon -- launched by the US to
attack China. They haven't figured out a way to do that yet, but
they're doing the second-best thing -- keep the CDC out.

Just as nutcases in America blame the weather on Trump, there are
plenty of nutcases in the CCP who either blame the US for causing the
virus, or who blame the US for taking advantage of the virus to attack
the CCP.

Remember that the CCP thugs make one incredibly stupid decision after
another, since they don't care about the people, but only care about
staying in power. They would gladly let half of China die if they
thought it meant that they would be in charge of the other half. So
the fact that they're making stupid, paranoid decisions is not
evidence of anything except their own stupidity and paranoia.

Incidentally, I understand that the WHO team has finally arrived in
China, but they're still being blocked from visiting Wuhan.

[Guest]

In 2003, a CCP official told the BBC that China had half billion people it didn't need...

[Xeraphim1]

** 12-Feb-2020 World View:Turkey, Russia, Syria accusations over Idlib seem to be spiraling out of control


Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that they
will no longer honor their Astana and Sochi agreements with Russia,
and will strike at the regime forces of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad anywhere, unless the regime forces are pulled back.



Turkey and Russia have been in a "marriage of convenience" with
regards to Syria policy at least since 2015, when Russia entered the
war in Syria. This marriage has been extremely difficult, which is
not surprising, since Turks and Russians have shared many centuries of
mutual hatred and generational crisis wars:

I find myself quite torn here. I intensely dislike Putin and the thugocracy he runs, but I also despise Erdogan and the Islamist dictatorship he's created in Turkey. If there would be no ramifications elsewhere I might support the "let's you and him fight" idea.

I think the most important step for the US is to remove all the B61's at Incirlik if that hasn't already been done. Then maybe line up US and European ships in the Aegean to stop the forthcoming boat flotillas. However I doubt any European country has the stones to do that.

[John]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Liking and disliking

> I find myself quite torn here. I intensely dislike Putin and the
> thugocracy he runs, but I also despise Erdogan and the Islamist
> dictatorship he's created in Turkey. If there would be no
> ramifications elsewhere I might support the "let's you and him
> fight" idea.

> I think the most important step for the US is to remove all the
> B61's at Incirlik if that hasn't already been done. Then maybe
> line up US and European ships in the Aegean to stop the
> forthcoming boat flotillas. However I doubt any European country
> has the stones to do that.

This is an interesting observation.

Of course I can't apply the Generational Dynamics analysis methodology
if I worry about whom I like or dislike. Still, it's a personally
interesting question whom I like or dislike, so your post made me
think about it.

I guess it's not surprising that I tend to like politicians who do
well in Generational Dynamics analyses, and dislike the others.
That's the opposite of finding that a politician does well in an
analysis because I like him. In fact, likeablity is an extremely
misleading criterion, since it's affected by ethnic or religious
biases. For example, I try as much as possible to stay neutral
between Jews and Arabs, even though almost everyone else hates one and
loves the other.

Hitler was greatly beloved by his German constituents. He won
elections, and he was very popular. But still, he was a genocidal
monster and so I pretty much dislike him.

Bashar al-Assad is an interesting example today. He is also a
sociopathic monster and war criminal, and gets personal pleasure out
of seeing tens of thousands of his political enemies suffer grotesque
torture and atrocities in his Saydnaya Prison in Damascus. But my
articles kept getting comments from Russian and Syrian trolls telling
me what a nice guy he is. I remember one guy explaining that he's a
great, wonderful opthamologist who is trying to lead his nation in the
best way. I advised him not to seek al-Assad for medical treatment, or
he might have his eyes removed.

I particularly remember one Syrian troll named Jan Fearing. She would
tell about her visits to Damascus and particularly her interviews with
mothers living in Damascus. These mothers thought al-Assad was
wonderful and generous to his people, with policies that particularly
benefited children. Jan Fearing apparently thought that by telling me
these stories, and by being semi-flirtatious with me, I would come to
love al-Assad too. Good luck with that! Finally she said, "Well, at
least you aren't calling me a troll anymore." And I wrote back once
again listing some of al-Assad's atrocities, concluding with "And yes,
you are definitely a troll."

Several trolls talked about how much Syrians loved al-Assad, and how
he won elections. So if I were to give in to these trolls and to Jan
Fearing's flirtations, I suppose I would like al-Assad too. But I
don't. I intensely despise him because of his actions, his genocide,
his ethnic cleansing, and his atrocities.

A lot of people seem to like Vladimir Putin, and there have been
plenty of paid Russian trolls making comments on my articles. I
started writing about the paid Russian trolls as early as 2014. I've
always considered complaints that Russia interfered with 2016 election
to be somewhat ridiculous, since Russian trolls are total idiots.

Anyway, Putin is well beloved, but Putin lies about everything. These
include lying about Russian soldiers in Ukraine, lying after Russians
shot down a passenger plane with a Buk missile, lying about not
invading Crimea, lying about whether Russia is going to annex Crimea,
and then annexing Crimea. He poisoned people in Britain with nerve
agent Novichok and lied about it. There are lots more lies related to
Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas and chlorine gas. And the entire
Astana and Sochi "peace process" with Erdogan was complete joke. So,
as you can guess, I really dislike Putin.

In America, Trump has made some remarkable achievements for which the
country is better off, contrasted to Adam Schiff, who lied repeatedly
and manufactured evidence, and was a total sleazebag deserving to live
in a sewer. Schiff is loved by the Democrats and the media because he
hates Trump and the 63 million Trump supporters.

This shows why it would be dangerous for me to base my analyses on
"liking" or "disliking." People who are "liked" are held to a very
low standard, so they can lie and commit atrocities with impunity.
Hitler was loved, so he could kill the Jews with impunity; al-Assad is
loved, so he can slaughter the Sunni Arabs with impunity; and Adam
Schiff is loved, so he can lie, manufacture evidence, or commit any
crime he wants with impunity. Trump, on the other hand, is hated, so
he's held to a much higher standard of honesty and behavior than any
Democrat, as a result of which he's forced to be extremely honest.
Another example is Bill Clinton, who is beloved by the Democrats and
media, even though he violently raped close to a dozen women with
impunity.

So now let's turn to Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He is widely hated in
America and Europe, but I have to consider that to be irrelevant, and
look at his behavior.

Here are some things about Erdogan to dislike:
- He's taken control of the press.
- He's jailed over 100,000 political enemies.
- He's defied Nato and bought Russian S-400s.
- He hates Kurds.

However, all of those things are offset by some real issues:
- Kurds have been conducting terrorist attacks since the 1980s.
- There was a major military coup attempt in 2016.
- He's hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees as a humanitarian gesture.
- The EU has frequently broken promises to him and humiliated him.

So there is some balance between the reasons to like or dislike
Erdogan.

But what I actually like about Erdogan is that he doesn't lie, at
least not more than a typical politician. If you take a look at those
four criticisms above, he admits them and defends them. That makes
him different from the sleazebags like Putin, Khamenei, al-Assad and
Schiff, who simply lie through their teeth, and deny what is obviously
true. There's a certain honesty to Erdogan that I like, and while his
behavior is bad, it's not as bad as the others' behavior. And as in
the case of Trump, he's forced to be as honest as possible because
he's more "disliked" than the others, and so is held to a much higher
honesty standard.

However, I have to add again, I can't let "liking" or "disliking"
influence my analyses, and I point out, as I always do, that my web
site contains about thousands or articles, analyses and predictions on
hundreds of countries and societies, and they've all turned out to be
true or trending true. None has been wrong. By contrast, analysts
and journalists who allow themselves to be led by what they like or
dislike are usually wrong about 50% of the time.

When I was in college specializing in Mathematical Logic, I always
liked to recall something by Bertrand Russell:

> "Now in the beginning everything is self-evident, and
> it is hard to see whether one self-evident proposition follows
> from another or not. Obviousness is always the enemy to
> correctness. Hence we must invent a new and difficult symbolism in
> which nothing is obvious."

Russell's advice is very useful when you're trying to prove something
like the Gödel Incompleteness Theorem, which takes "new and difficult
symbolism" to an extreme, but for Generational Dynamics I don't have
the luxury of inventing new symbolism so that nothing will be obvious,
since the stuff I write is meant to be read by the general public, not
by mathematicians. But the problem is the same in Mathematics or in
Generational Dynamics -- if you "like" something, or if something is
"obvious," that doesn't mean that it's true, and might sometimes mean
that it's false.

As for withdrawing from Incirlik, that's a bad idea because we're
going to need Erdogan as an ally as long as possible, whether we like
him or not.

[John]

** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Hubei province: 4,823 new coronavirus cases

• High Fashion: A passenger at a Beijing railway station covers
  her head and body with plastic bags for added protection against the
  coronavirus. (SCMP)

Yesterday's huge jump in Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) cases -- 18,840
new cases, 242 deaths in Hubei province -- turned out to be a one-day
phenomenon, caused by a change in diagnostic criteria.

Friday's report is of 4,823 new cases and 116 more deaths.

These new case figures are lower than yesterday's big surge, but still
higher than the preceding trend.

Unconfirmed reports on tv said that concerns have been raised that the
virus cannot be contained in either Singapore or Japan. North Korea
says that they have no cases, but of course they won't know until
people start dying.

The CDC still has not been permitted to visit Wuhan city. This gives
the very strong impression that the Chinese are hiding something very
serious.

International anger is growing that the Chinese apparently knew about
the virus as early as October, but ignored it and censored reports
about it until January. China is being blamed for the spread of the
virus both inside and outside of China.

Xi Jinping has rarely appeared in public since mid-January, since he
doesn't want to be blamed for the unfolding disaster. However,
several local officials in Wuhan city have been fired.

---- Source:

-- Coronavirus: Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases and 116 more
deaths
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... d-116-more
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 14-Feb-2020)