Generational Dynamics World View News

[Jeepdinger]

Does Trump need congressional approval for the funds when he's about to get paid to store all the oil in the strategic reserve? He should jump on that deal.

[John]

** 20-Apr-2020 World View: Strategic reserve

> Does Trump need congressional approval for the funds when he's
> about to get paid to store all the oil in the strategic reserve?
> He should jump on that deal.

Several weeks ago, when oil prices started falling, Trump said that he
would take advantage of the falling prices to fill the strategic
reserve.

[Jeepdinger]

Agreed. However, he would most likely need congressional approval on the funds normally needed to fill the strategic reserve. Currently, while futures are negative seems to be the best time to agree to pay/take delivery of oil. While I don't completely understand the relationship between oil futures and prices, it would seem to be a good deal.

[John]

** 20-Apr-2020 World View: Filling the strategic oil reserve

> Agreed. However, he would most likely need congressional approval
> on the funds normally needed to fill the strategic reserve.
> Currently, while futures are negative seems to be the best time to
> agree to pay/take delivery of oil. While I don't completely
> understand the relationship between oil futures and prices, it
> would seem to be a good deal.

*** Trump could make crashing oil prices a win for American taxpayers. Here’s how.
*** https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... heres-how/

Update 5:42pm ET: Trump just said they're filling up the strategic oil
reserve, and hope to store 75 million barrels.

Update 6:42pm ET: Trump just said that he doesn't need funds to fill
the strategic oil reserve, since the oil at current prices is free.

[Jeepdinger]

** 20-Apr-2020 World View: Filling the strategic oil reserve

> Agreed. However, he would most likely need congressional approval
> on the funds normally needed to fill the strategic reserve.
> Currently, while futures are negative seems to be the best time to
> agree to pay/take delivery of oil. While I don't completely
> understand the relationship between oil futures and prices, it
> would seem to be a good deal.

*** Trump could make crashing oil prices a win for American taxpayers. Here’s how.
*** https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... heres-how/

Update 5:42pm ET: Trump just said they're filling up the strategic oil
reserve, and hope to store 75 million barrels.

Update 6:42pm ET: Trump just said that he doesn't need funds to fill
the strategic oil reserve, since the oil at current prices is free.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/2 ... zed-196473

Yes, apparently the oil is effectively free, as traders are paying people to take futures off their hands. Congress has already rejected a DOE request for money to fill the reserve. This situation provides a nice way to bypass Congress. Trump should be able to just direct the DOE to make the transactions as long as it requires no money from Congress. It's an odd situation, but could be turned into a win. One thing to consider is whether you make Saudi Arabia pay us to offload ships, or if we take money from US corps...

[John]

** 20-Apr-2020 World View: North Korea's Kim Jong-un may be critically ill after heart surgery

• Child dictator Kim Jong-un in 2016

There are reports from North Korea that the child dictator underwent a
"cardiovascular procedure" early this month, and that he's been
receiving continuing treatment since then. Kim went to the hospital
on April 11 after a party meeting, and hasn't been seen publicly since
then. His absence from events last week marking the birthday of his
grandfather Kim Il-sung was unprecedented.

In 2016, reports indicated that North Korean officials were concerned
about the child dictator's weight gain, which has grown from 198
pounds in 2012 to 286. Reports indicated that Kim Jong-un is
consuming high-quality cheeses, Big Macs, vodka, steak, and sushi, and
that he's suffering from gout, diabetes, high blood pressure, high
uric acid, and high cholesterol.

---- Sources:

-- North Korea's Kim getting treatment after cardiovascular procedure:
report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... SKBN223011
(Reuters, 21-Apr-2020)

-- Kim Jong Un Surgery Report Fuels Speculation About Leader’s Health
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ean-leader
(Bloomberg, 20-Apr-2020)

-- Kim Yo-jong: the sister of Kim Jong-un, fast 'becoming his alter
ego'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -alter-ego
(Guardian, London, 19-Apr-2020)

---- Related:

** 4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160804

[Xeraphim1]

"There are mitigating circumstances to these insane numbers. The prices for WTI reflect the contract for May, which expires this week. The collapse is a reflection of traders abandoning the May contract, and moving on to June. The thinly-traded May contract loses some relevance, and analysts say that the June contract – trading at $20 per barrel as of Monday – now becomes the important number to watch."

It's a weird thing, but doesn't mean as much as you might think.

[John]

** 21-Apr-2020 World View: Price of oil

> "There are mitigating circumstances to these insane numbers. The
> prices for WTI reflect the contract for May, which expires this
> week. The collapse is a reflection of traders abandoning the May
> contract, and moving on to June. The thinly-traded May contract
> loses some relevance, and analysts say that the June contract –
> trading at $20 per barrel as of Monday – now becomes the important
> number to watch."

> It's a weird thing, but doesn't mean as much as you might
> think.

I just heard that the price of oil is $10 per barrel in the June
contract. Even at $20, there will be lots of bankruptcies among oil
producers, and lots of losses among banks and hedge funds. Tens of
thousands of people will lose their jobs.

I just heard a news report that the prices of used cars are
plummeting. This is all because of the economic shutdown. Even if
some of the lockdowns end, these price collapses will continue for
many months. This is a classic deflationary spiral, like the 1930s.

[Guest]

I read that WTI is now trading at $1 a barrel. How is that even possible, even with a lock down? My father was an oil engineer; I doubt he ever expected a day like this would come. It's as if the world is coming to an end.

I expect Iraq and the KSA to witness violent rebellions within the next two weeks. Russians, being sheep, will simply die in poverty as they always have.

[John]

** 21-Apr-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Germany and Singapore

Here are a couple of news items that I just heard on CNN.

In Germany, Angela Merkel has canceled Octoberfest. This is not
surprising, but it does provide a shock to those who were hoping that
everything would return to normal by the end of the summer.

In Singapore, strict lockdown laws are being extended for additional
weeks. Singapore had been held up internationally as a model for how
to deal with the virus successfully, but now the number of cases is
exploding, especially among guest workers.

A couple of additional notes about Singapore:

Donald Trump announced he would sign an executive order stopping even
legal immigration. The details have yet to be announced, and there
are sure to be a lot of exceptions. People on the left and right have
expressed puzzlement about why this is being done, but it's possible
that the Singapore experience is one of the reasons.

The current temperature in Singapore is around 90 degees F. I wrote
several months ago that since Singapore is right on the equator, it
would provide a test case for whether the virus would die out during
the summer. If Singapore is seeing an explosion in cases, this would
suggest that the virus will continue to spread during the summer.
Even worse, it may mutate during the summer into something more
virulent, as happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic in summer 1918.

> "The climate in Singapore is equatorial, ie hot,
> humid, and rainy throughout the year. The country, which is at the
> same time an island, a city, and a state, is actually at the
> Equator, in an area where there are always the conditions for the
> formation of showers and thunderstorms.

> Although the climate is fairly uniform, there are some variations
> in the course of the year due to the two monsoons: the north-east
> monsoon, which occurs from November to early March and is more
> rainy, especially in the first part, and the south-west monsoon,
> which occurs from June to September. The first period between the
> two monsoon, from March to early June, is the hottest and the most
> unpleasant of the year.

> Temperatures in Singapore are quite uniform, since they only vary
> by a few degrees between the coolest and the warmest months. The
> minimum temperature ranges from 23 °C (73 °F) in December and
> January to 25 °C (77 °F) in May and June, while the maximum ranges
> from 30 °C (86 °F) in December and January to 32 °C (90 °F) in
> April and May."

> https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/singapore