Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
This is very poor analysis. KSA does not sponsor the Chechens. They don't. Prince Bandar was talking shit with Putin. I honestly wonder if that conversation cooked up by them. The (very) few Saudis in the Chechen army disliked the Saudi Monarchy. Jihadis generally do. There are wealthy Saudis that do donate money to Islamic causes, the way rich Jews in America support Israel, but it doesn't mean that the governments sign off on it. It's not that simple.

The Saudi government was not behind 9/11. Bin Laden was an outcast. He had been for a long time. Da kardii doesn't understand Jihadi politcs. It's not monolithic; it never has been. Jihadists want islamic Republics, not kings or Shahs. The Saudi government is trying to keep a lid on homegrown Jihadis. The KSA are generally good at dealing with Jihadist blowback. Saudi society has deep levels of corruption and political patronage and tribal issues to deal with than stirring up wars.

Iran has caused far more trouble in the Middle East than the Saudis.

Tribalism ihas a much stronger pull in the Middle East than religion (when all involved are Sunni). It does. Tribal connections matter more. It is very nuanced and complex. Arab tribalism is difficult for outsiders to understand.

The USSR was an atheist Communist hellhole. The deeply religious and merchantile Saudis had no interest in dealing with godless communists. And the USSR had nothing to offer the Saudis. Nothing. I don't think KSA had relations with a lot of countries in the past, it wasn't bad blood but lack of interest that guided it.

You think like Rambo. You should have stayed at the monastery in Thailand...
Dakardii wrote:
The KSA very much does support the Chechen militias. Many of those militias are affiliated with Salafi/Wahhabi organizations which receive material support from KSA government-sponsored charities such as the Muslim World League. The KSA does not care whether or not these people support or oppose the monarchy. To the KSA, they are pseudo-indispensable tools that can be manipulated into achieving its foreign policy goals. From the very beginning, the KSA has been playing both sides of the so-called "War on Terror" (btw since you like pop culture references, think about Palpatine's modus operandi in the Star Wars prequel trilogy). It is a sick double game that has the potential to start World War III.
No, the KSA does not. The Chechens do look to the House of Saud for anything. The Chechens were fighting the Russians bfore Saudi Arabia even existed and they did it without foreign help. (Not even the from the Ottoman Empire.) You don't know whaqt you are talking about. You are posting Moscow's or some other anti-Muslim groups talking points. You have no clue as to what really happens in the Muslim world. You study propagaqnda as if it were fact. That is why your analysis is absolutely wrong.

Dakardii wrote:
It is precisely for this reason that I (and millions upon millions of others) consider the KSA itself to be responsible for 9/11, and consider the KSA to be (much) worse than Iran.
The ignorant people who watched Fox News back in 2001 and used to refer to Qatar as "gutter". I remember that. So do millions of people... Only the unsophisticated and ignorant sincerely believe that the KSA was behind 9/11. You have zero under understanding of what goes on in the Arab or Muslim world.
It is also precisely for this reason that the Russia will never fully trust the KSA with anything, ever. If those countries ever patch up their diplomatic relations, it will only be for a temporary period and consist of a fragile "cooperative détente" (similar to the current Sino-Russian relationship).
It's Russia who faked the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 and blamed the Chechens. Ask Moscovites what they think. They will tell you. Well, maybe not you. You obvious hatred of Muslims and Arabs is far too apparent. Also, that you believe Putin and the Kremlin is a sign of stupidity to the average Russian.

I had hoped that twenty years of losing wars and bankrupting yourselves would have led more Americans to a better understanding of their folly. Some Americans do understand; you don't.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:05 pm
** 07-Feb-2021 World View: Arab tribalism
Guest wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:23 pm
> Tribalism ihas a much stronger pull in the Middle East than
> religion (when all involved are Sunni). It does. Tribal
> connections matter more. It is very nuanced and complex. Arab
> tribalism is difficult for outsiders to understand.
I agree. I've been trying to understand more about Arab tribalism
for years, without a great deal of success.

As a major example, I've been trying to understand the tribal issues
related to the June 5, 2017, land, sea and air blockade of Qatar by
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt.
I've read and written articles about the issues with Iran, about
the Saudi's 13 demands, and so forth, but the massive blockade has been
going on for four years and the explanations have never measured up
to the size and duration of the blockade. It's always been obvious
to me that something bigger was going on, but I could never figure
out what that was, although I've always assumed that it was
related to historical tribal issues.

So my question for you is: What are the Arab tribalism issues
driving the blockade?
Borders drawn by Western powers have divided tribes. Also wars have scattred some; but the clan or tribe, the family, is still central to Arabs. Some Arab states used to be part of another tribe's territory. Family rivalries that pre-date the British or the French are also an issue. And the Crusades, mostly forgotten in West or still alive in the minds of Arabs.

Arabs know history very well.

Americans do not. They do not.

balrog

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by balrog »

Where is the Dakardii flame thread located?

richard5za
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Location: South Africa

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by richard5za »

No one seems to be writing about Trump's trial in the Senate. Is that because its a forgone conclusion? The GOP will simply vote it unconstitutional? But what about it's divisive nature? Potential to create violence and lead to other political or generational events? I would be interested in views

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

richard5za wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:57 am
No one seems to be writing about Trump's trial in the Senate. Is that because its a forgone conclusion? The GOP will simply vote it unconstitutional? But what about it's divisive nature? Potential to create violence and lead to other political or generational events? I would be interested in views
I view it all as a prelude to mass interment of patriotic Americans (Trump supporters) and genocide.

John
Posts: 11485
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 07-Feb-2021 World View: How WW III will start
Burner Prime wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:50 pm
> China is not going to attack Taiwan any time soon, though
> eventually they'll do it as a surprise 3-prong strike. Before
> that, they gonna build up their nuclear-capable subs, which will
> be the linchpin. If they attacc before, we'd take out the ones
> currently under construction, the new big boys capable of 24 nukes
> each. So they gonna wait until those are operational. One thing
> they ain't gonna do is repeat Japan's mistakes.
The analyses that you guys have written are very good, but they leave
out an important factor: You guys are being way too rational.

An example of an error is the statement, "One thing they ain't gonna
do is repeat Japan's mistakes," which I assume is alluding to Japan's
bombing of Pearl Harbor, and meant to aver that China won't start
World War III by bombing America.

If you're talking about what China is going to do first, then Japan's
bombing is a completely irrelevant comparison. That was not the
beginning of WW II, or even the beginning of Japan's participation in
the war. World War II began in 1937 with Japan attacking China.

The second major issue is assuming that China will plan something in
advance, and then do it. That's possible but generational crisis wars
don't start that way. Non-crisis wars begin that way, but not crisis
wars.

Crisis wars begin with a chaotic unexpected event. WW I began because
a 12-year-old decided to shoot an Archduke. WW II began because a
Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in the woods. That's how WW
III will begin. It will be totally irrational and unexpected.

Then, once the war begins, everyone will be completely unprepared.
They'll start to panic and either do something stupid, or else dust
off some old contingency plans and do those, which will also be stupid
because the plans will be out of date, or based on incorrect
assumptions.

After about six months, they'll start to become rational, and then
they'll do the things that you've been predicting.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 08-Feb-2021 World View: Saudi tribalism
Guest wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:28 am
> Borders drawn by Western powers have divided tribes. Also wars
> have scattred some; but the clan or tribe, the family, is still
> central to Arabs. Some Arab states used to be part of another
> tribe's territory. Family rivalries that pre-date the British or
> the French are also an issue. And the Crusades, mostly forgotten
> in West or still alive in the minds of Arabs.

> Arabs know history very well. Americans do not. They do
> not.
That's nothing but bloviation that doesn't even attempt to answer
the question.

And Arabs don't know history any better than Americans. They just
know more about the history of their own tribes than Americans do.
Just because they think they know what the Crusades were doesn't mean
that they know anything about history. In fact, in view of your
non-answer to my question, I'm going to guess that you don't know much
about Saudi tribal history.

John
Posts: 11485
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 08-Feb-2021 World View: DaKardii's Topic
balrog wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:15 am
> Where is the Dakardii flame thread located?
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5907

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 08-Feb-2021 World View: Impeachment
richard5za wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:57 am
> No one seems to be writing about Trump's trial in the Senate. Is
> that because its a forgone conclusion? The GOP will simply vote it
> unconstitutional? But what about it's divisive nature? Potential
> to create violence and lead to other political or generational
> events? I would be interested in views
It's a total farce, with the final outcome predetermined.

It's already a major embarassment to the Democrats. And there's
growing evidence that the FBI knew days in advance that anti-Trump
groups were planning the January 6 attack on the Capitol, but the FBI
purposely withheld that information from Trump so that he would be
blamed. The media are censoring that information, but it could come
out in the trial. For this reason, I would expect the Democrats to
try to end the trial as quickly as possible, after a few hours of
meaningless posturing about how evil Trump is.
Guest wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:16 am
> I view it all as a prelude to mass interment of patriotic
> Americans (Trump supporters) and genocide.
Well, that's very dramatic and hysterical, but nothing like that is on
the horizon. What you've written sounds like something that the
Chinese are hoping for. Are you Chinese?

However, what people will be watching for in the next days and weeks
is to see what Trump's next move will be. This will be some kind of
patriotic political movement that will panic the Democrats even
further.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

richard5za wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:57 am
No one seems to be writing about Trump's trial in the Senate. Is that because its a forgone conclusion? The GOP will simply vote it unconstitutional? But what about it's divisive nature? Potential to create violence and lead to other political or generational events? I would be interested in views
It's a pointless endeavor. Trump won't be convicted and since the penalty is removal from office it's a complete waste of time.

Someone really needs to hammer the point on Democrats that the only thing worse than a sore loser is a sore winner.

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