Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

If Russia can't beat the Ukraine, how does it hope to go up against NATO? China need oil. How does it expect to get it from the Middle East if they start anything? Isn's China without war collapsing anyway from poor economic choices?

China collapsing is like a falling knife. It would be nice if we could get out of the way but we're almost too heavily invested in the area and with them. The chances that we can just watch them go under and remain unaffected in our own little bubble are small and getting smaller. They don't appear to be willing to just eat themselves like what happened in the cultural revolution. Didn't the Mongols attack the biggest foe and obliterate them, making an example for all to see and forcing everyone into submission without a fight. LEAVE THE WORLD BEHIND might work for them. They could watch US collapse and eat ourselves. What's the new popular movie? Civil War?

When's your prediction on this?

I'd have to agree with Navigator in that it's been a daily possibility for a while now. Everyone wakes up to it at their own pace. The danger is quite high and getting higher. BB seems to poo poo the chances of it being as bad as some of us think, and for the sake of the children I hope he's correct on that and that some of us have a bias towards believing in disaster scenarios. Although he's mostly wrong, I'd prefer anyway to hope he's correct on that. I'd say this year is 50/50, maybe much higher than that. Rate of change is hard to judge with so many independent and inexplicable variables. I'm leaving it up to fate and there's a force behind efforts underway to self sufficiency. God willing. Happy Easter!

[Guest]

If Russia can't beat the Ukraine, how does it hope to go up against NATO? China need oil. How does it expect to get it from the Middle East if they start anything? Isn's China without war collapsing anyway from poor economic choices?

China collapsing is like a falling knife. It would be nice if we could get out of the way but we're almost too heavily invested in the area and with them. The chances that we can just watch them go under and remain unaffected in our own little bubble are small and getting smaller. They don't appear to be willing to just eat themselves like what happened in the cultural revolution. Didn't the Mongols attack the biggest foe and obliterate them, making an example for all to see and forcing everyone into submission without a fight. LEAVE THE WORLD BEHIND might work for them. They could watch US collapse and eat ourselves. What's the new popular movie? Civil War?

When's your prediction on this?

What is your prediction, Cool Breeze?

[John]

** 01-Apr-2024 World View: Israeli missile strike kills top Iranian general in Damascus

An explosion has killed a top Iranian
IRGC general near the Iranian embassy in
Damascus, Syria. It's believed to have
been a targeted strike by Israel. If
confirmed, this would be a significant
development in the Mideast war.

Reuters: Iranian Guards commander killed
in Israeli strike on consulate in
Damascus, source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-04-01/

[Guest Ivry Seine]

** 01-Apr-2024 World View: Israeli missile strike kills top Iranian general in Damascus

An explosion has killed a top Iranian
IRGC general near the Iranian embassy in
Damascus, Syria. It's believed to have
been a targeted strike by Israel. If
confirmed, this would be a significant
development in the Mideast war.

Reuters: Iranian Guards commander killed
in Israeli strike on consulate in
Damascus, source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-04-01/

Israel wants to provoke a war that it cannot win. Israel, like Europe, expects America to save it. Public support for Israel has never been lower. Given a choice between Israel and Taiwan, America will choose Taiwan. The elites have lost control of the narrative. And they are never getting it back.

[NoMansLand]

** 01-Apr-2024 World View: Israeli missile strike kills top Iranian general in Damascus

An explosion has killed a top Iranian
IRGC general near the Iranian embassy in
Damascus, Syria. It's believed to have
been a targeted strike by Israel. If
confirmed, this would be a significant
development in the Mideast war.

Reuters: Iranian Guards commander killed
in Israeli strike on consulate in
Damascus, source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-04-01/

Israel wants to provoke a war that it cannot win. Israel, like Europe, expects America to save it. Public support for Israel has never been lower. Given a choice between Israel and Taiwan, America will choose Taiwan. The elites have lost control of the narrative. And they are never getting it back.

I hate the feel of tin foil on my scalp, but my first thought when I saw the story was that it was done on our behalf. The administration wants to support Israel but the base doesn't like it. They have kept things quiet so far, but they need a way to deal with the Iran supplied Houthi's hitting shipping lanes. If they can draw Iran into more direct involvement it gives them an opening and a measure of political cover to take it. MSNBC headline, Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia!

I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where Israel, already actively fighting in Gaza and slap fighting with Lebanon, would actively engage a third front without some form of deal being in place with someone.

[FullMoon]

It's all heating up quickly and things are happening fast.

[John]

** 02-Apr-2024 World View: Strategic purpose of Syria airstrike

> I hate the feel of tin foil on my
> scalp, but my first thought when I
> saw the story was that it was done
> on our behalf. The administration
> wants to support Israel but the base
> doesn't like it. They have kept
> things quiet so far, but they need a
> way to deal with the Iran supplied
> Houthi's hitting shipping lanes. If
> they can draw Iran into more direct
> involvement it gives them an opening
> and a measure of political cover to
> take it. MSNBC headline, Oceania has
> always been at war with Eastasia!

> I am having a hard time imagining a
> scenario where Israel, already
> actively fighting in Gaza and slap
> fighting with Lebanon, would
> actively engage a third front
> without some form of deal being in
> place with someone.

Actually, Israel has plenty of good
reasons for the airstrike, with or
without American involvement:

> Strategic blow: Alleged
> Israeli airstrike takes out Iranian
> general in Damascus

> The strike killed Mohammad Reza
> Zahedi, a top commander in the
> Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
> (IRGC), according to a report in
> Reuters, citing a security source in
> Lebanon. ...

> Zahedi commanded the Quds Force’s
> Unit 18000, responsible, among other
> things, for smuggling ammunition and
> precision weapons into Lebanon. He
> had also commanded the IRGC’s Air
> Force and Imam Hussein Division in
> the past.Israel has long targeted
> Iranian military installations and
> those of its proxies in Syria and
> has ramped up those strikes in
> parallel with its campaign against
> Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas
> in the Gaza Strip. Monday’s attack
> was the first time the vast embassy
> compound itself had been
> hit.

Israel has actually struck Iranian
assets in Syria many times. This
particular airstrike has gotten more
attention because of its strategic
significance.

Israel has not confirmed that it was
responsible for the airstrike, but
everyone seems to believe it, including
Israeli media.

Iran has promised harsh retaliation, but
I've heard a couple of analysts say that
there won't be much because Iran doesn't
want to risk full-scale war with Israel.

[spottybrowncow]

Given a choice between Israel and Taiwan, America will choose Taiwan.

I'm certainly "speaking out of school," and I welcome the comments of Navigator and others, but I think we're taking about apples and oranges. I have the feeling the US military could (if unrestrained) defeat the entire middle east without breaking a sweat. Defeating China, if it invades Taiwan, maybe not so straightforward. I'd love to be wrong on that one.

[Navigator]

The effect of Oct7 on Israel is that it finally figured out that negotiating with the Arabs and "peace deals" serves only to eventually strengthen forces wishing to eradicate them.

I applaud them for going into Gaza to crush Hamas, and I believe they will soon do that. They are already getting all the hate the world has for them, and they have seen that no one is going to militarily intervene to stop them.

I believe that another consequence of Oct7 is that they realize that they will eventually have something similar done to them by Hezbollah from the northern border. Hezbollah has also launched rockets into Israel during the current Gaza war, and since the Iranians control Hezbollah, the Israelis are certainly justified in going after Iranian military commanders (who order such attacks).

Israel is currently mobilized physically and mentally for war. They would probably be best served to take on Hezbollah after finishing with Hamas.

My prescription was laid out months ago when I said that they should take over southern Lebanon, move the Gazans into the area north of the Litani river after neutralizing Hezbollah, then pull back to the river line with a DMZ a couple of mile wide from the river north.

As for a "war the Israeli's can't win", who are they fighting against that they can't defeat? How is the Iranian Army going to force project across Iraq and Syria to get at them? They can't. Even the Turks don't have the ability to move enough of their Army across Syria/Lebanon to get at them, and that is the only even remotely viable threat to the Israelis from the north/east. The Egyptians figured out long ago that their best option is to not actually fight the Israelis, so they are out of it (their military is not going to degrade its power to control the civilian population by getting itself decimated in the Sinai again).

Militarily, the Israelis can do fine on their own for quite a while. They still have plenty of support in the US, even though academia has been poisoned against them by Arab money.

[Guest]

The effect of Oct7 on Israel is that it finally figured out that negotiating with the Arabs and "peace deals" serves only to eventually strengthen forces wishing to eradicate them.

I applaud them for going into Gaza to crush Hamas, and I believe they will soon do that. They are already getting all the hate the world has for them, and they have seen that no one is going to militarily intervene to stop them.

I believe that another consequence of Oct7 is that they realize that they will eventually have something similar done to them by Hezbollah from the northern border. Hezbollah has also launched rockets into Israel during the current Gaza war, and since the Iranians control Hezbollah, the Israelis are certainly justified in going after Iranian military commanders (who order such attacks).

Israel is currently mobilized physically and mentally for war. They would probably be best served to take on Hezbollah after finishing with Hamas.

My prescription was laid out months ago when I said that they should take over southern Lebanon, move the Gazans into the area north of the Litani river after neutralizing Hezbollah, then pull back to the river line with a DMZ a couple of mile wide from the river north.

As for a "war the Israeli's can't win", who are they fighting against that they can't defeat? How is the Iranian Army going to force project across Iraq and Syria to get at them? They can't. Even the Turks don't have the ability to move enough of their Army across Syria/Lebanon to get at them, and that is the only even remotely viable threat to the Israelis from the north/east. The Egyptians figured out long ago that their best option is to not actually fight the Israelis, so they are out of it (their military is not going to degrade its power to control the civilian population by getting itself decimated in the Sinai again).

Militarily, the Israelis can do fine on their own for quite a while. They still have plenty of support in the US, even though academia has been poisoned against them by Arab money.

How would Jews fare in Europe with millions and millions of Muslim refugees there? Also, the POCs, including blacks and Latinos overwhelmingly support the Palestinians in the US and Europe. I have heard Jews online saying that "Europe has become unlivable'. What the Jews are enduring in Europe now are mere pin pricks compared to what could happen to them in the event of mass ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians from israel. How is Israel going to survive in the ME with so much hatred dired at them? Even the Turks have abandoned them.