Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

I agree. If it were as that simple, the Chinese would have already done it.

They'll do it on their time, not just because it will work. War is about strategy. You don't show your hand until you're ready to win.

And that time is... when? Not this autumn since there will be no real difference in capabilities from right now. The people making projections tend to leave out discussion of how those projections will be a accomplished aside from various hand waves.

Their hand is being forced and they'll roll with the punches.
Correct on them being reticent, but when they get going it will escalate quickly most likely. Most likely they hope for limited pushback initially and will advance quickly to fortify. As they accomplished in S China Sea but in blitzkrieg speed.

[thomasglee]

I agree. If it were as that simple, the Chinese would have already done it.

They'll do it on their time, not just because it will work. War is about strategy. You don't show your hand until you're ready to win.

And that time is... when? Not this autumn since there will be no real difference in capabilities from right now. The people making projections tend to leave out discussion of how those projections will be a accomplished aside from various hand waves.

Are you currently within China and roaming the country watching? If not, then you have no idea what preparations are or are not underway. You have no idea what the differences in capabilities are from right now.

[Xeraphim1]

Nyquist posted an interview with a source he has in China who said that Russia purposely is drawing Western anti tank munitions to Ukraine so the Western countries will be depleted of anti tank weapons when China attacks.

How many Javelin and similar style anti tank weapons have been given to Ukraine and how long does it take to replace them?

According to this source, the Chinese COVID lock downs are for the mobilization of the largest seaborne invasion in modern history - China is going to land on the west coasts of North and South America.

So Russia is losing huge amounts of equipment that it can't afford to replace, and thousands of men dead and wounded who also can't easily be replaced for the benefit of China? Keep in mind that Chinese exports to Russia have dropped since February because China apparently values its trade with the rest of the world more than Russia.

And China somehow is going to engage in seaborne invasions of both North and South America using the troop lift that doesn't exist but will somehow appear when needed? China can't realistically invade Taiwan but 8,000 miles away is feasible?

Does this sound even slightly likely? Putin is taking one for the China team? Magic Chinese invasion forces?

[FullMoon]

Nyquist posted an interview with a source he has in China who said that Russia purposely is drawing Western anti tank munitions to Ukraine so the Western countries will be depleted of anti tank weapons when China attacks.

How many Javelin and similar style anti tank weapons have been given to Ukraine and how long does it take to replace them?

According to this source, the Chinese COVID lock downs are for the mobilization of the largest seaborne invasion in modern history - China is going to land on the west coasts of North and South America.

So Russia is losing huge amounts of equipment that it can't afford to replace, and thousands of men dead and wounded who also can't easily be replaced for the benefit of China? Keep in mind that Chinese exports to Russia have dropped since February because China apparently values its trade with the rest of the world more than Russia.

And China somehow is going to engage in seaborne invasions of both North and South America using the troop lift that doesn't exist but will somehow appear when needed? China can't realistically invade Taiwan but 8,000 miles away is feasible?

Does this sound even slightly likely? Putin is taking one for the China team? Magic Chinese invasion forces?

Of course they've got invasion plans, to where is the question.
Russia has been played against the West of course. ' Let you and him fight ' .
They benefit from both parties being weakened because we know there's no friends amongst enemies.

[Tom Mazanec]

G7 Set To Impose “Price Caps” On Russian Oil; Unclear What This Actually Does
by Tyler Durden | Jun 28, 2022 | Headline News | 0 comments
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/ ... ually-does

G7 to stand with Ukraine 'for as long as it takes'
Angelo Amante and John Irish
Mon, June 27, 2022, 4:04 AM·5 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/g7-hike- ... 57194.html

EUROPE POLITICS
Total shutdown of Russian gas pipelines to Europe ‘is not inconceivable’
PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 28 202212:40 AM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUN 28 20224:48 AM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/g-7-nat ... -gas-.html

Russian missile strike hits shopping mall with more than 1,000 people inside, Ukraine says
June 27, 2022, 11:01 AM EDT / Updated June 27, 2022, 11:10 PM EDT
By Yuliya Talmazan, Phil McCausland and Artem Grudinin
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna35482

NATO To Drastically Increase High-Readiness Forces By 650%
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 - 04:15 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ver-300000

[Navigator]

How many Javelin and similar style anti tank weapons have been given to Ukraine and how long does it take to replace them?

According to this source, the Chinese COVID lock downs are for the mobilization of the largest seaborne invasion in modern history - China is going to land on the west coasts of North and South America.

Javelins

Looking at the source documents from the article I quoted, the US can currently produce 2100 Javelins per year. The manufacturer hopes to have production up to 4000 per year "in a few years". They are only produced in one factory in Alabama.

Note that the article pointed out that one third of US stockpile has already been sent to Ukraine.

Chinese Invasions

The Chinese do not have the capability of sustaining invasions across the Pacific. To do so, you would have to be able to protect merchant shipping moving from China to the eastern Pacific coast and back. This is a daunting task requiring huge amounts of seapower and sea lift capacity.

HOWEVER, the Chinese could, and would be wise to send some battalions on one way missions prior to the start of the war. Say a battalion (500 troops, with machine guns and mortars), was landed off of a container ship in San Pedro CA. Similar "throw away" battalions could land in places like Juneau AK, San Francisco CA, the Panama Canal Zone. They would be destroyed within a week or so, but they would create all kinds of chaos and panic.

The Chinese could also land larger units of "laborers" in countries with whom they have Belt Road Initiative Contracts, or even secretive treaties. Places like Nicaragua, Ecuador, Venezuela to name just the obvious ones. They could then open their pre-deployed shipping containers of weapons and ammo, and be ready to go. They would not receive supplies from China once war with US begins, but it they would have quite some time to run around and do damage against US interests.

[Navigator]

They'll do it on their time, not just because it will work. War is about strategy. You don't show your hand until you're ready to win.

And that time is... when? Not this autumn since there will be no real difference in capabilities from right now. The people making projections tend to leave out discussion of how those projections will be a accomplished aside from various hand waves.

Their hand is being forced and they'll roll with the punches.
Correct on them being reticent, but when they get going it will escalate quickly most likely. Most likely they hope for limited pushback initially and will advance quickly to fortify. As they accomplished in S China Sea but in blitzkrieg speed.

My belief is that the economic meltdown will force their hand, and they will have to move quickly to divert the population's attention from the fact that they have lost all their money/property. They will have to blame the US and start shooting, so they can impose martial law and otherwise keep the people from revolt against the CCP.

[Navigator]

Nyquist posted an interview with a source he has in China who said that Russia purposely is drawing Western anti tank munitions to Ukraine so the Western countries will be depleted of anti tank weapons when China attacks.

This was certainly not the initial Russian plan. I believe they though they could take over Ukraine like it was 1968 Czechoslovakia and were completely shocked to find themselves in a real fight.

The Russian efforts the first two months of the war were a complete embarrassment to the Russian military.

The plan NOW may indeed be to have the Ukrainians suck in as much NATO ammunition as possible, but the Russians have depleted much of their conventional offensive capability. To move against additional powers, they will need to go into a full mobilization, something Putin doesn't seem to want to do. A replacement of Putin might not have any such reservations.

[Xeraphim1]

They'll do it on their time, not just because it will work. War is about strategy. You don't show your hand until you're ready to win.

And that time is... when? Not this autumn since there will be no real difference in capabilities from right now. The people making projections tend to leave out discussion of how those projections will be a accomplished aside from various hand waves.

Are you currently within China and roaming the country watching? If not, then you have no idea what preparations are or are not underway. You have no idea what the differences in capabilities are from right now.

And the same back to you. However I'm not the one postulating very unlikely actions with nothing to back it up. Show me how China is actually going to accomplish an invasion based on the forces and capabilities that it actually has. I'm not going to put much credence in theories pulled out of someone's butt.

[Xeraphim1]

Nyquist posted an interview with a source he has in China who said that Russia purposely is drawing Western anti tank munitions to Ukraine so the Western countries will be depleted of anti tank weapons when China attacks.

This was certainly not the initial Russian plan. I believe they though they could take over Ukraine like it was 1968 Czechoslovakia and were completely shocked to find themselves in a real fight.

The Russian efforts the first two months of the war were a complete embarrassment to the Russian military.

The plan NOW may indeed be to have the Ukrainians suck in as much NATO ammunition as possible, but the Russians have depleted much of their conventional offensive capability. To move against additional powers, they will need to go into a full mobilization, something Putin doesn't seem to want to do. A replacement of Putin might not have any such reservations.

The thing is that those weapons would not be that necessary to fight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Remember that China needs to move the vast majority of its men and equipment by ship. Anti tank missiles are not really necessary for that. The situation is much different than with Ukraine. Besides which, the countries opposing China are different than the ones opposing Russia with the exception of the US.