Generational Dynamics World View News

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Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:34 pm
Navigator wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:55 pm
tim wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:55 am
Nyquist posted an interview with a source he has in China who said that Russia purposely is drawing Western anti tank munitions to Ukraine so the Western countries will be depleted of anti tank weapons when China attacks.
This was certainly not the initial Russian plan. I believe they though they could take over Ukraine like it was 1968 Czechoslovakia and were completely shocked to find themselves in a real fight.

The Russian efforts the first two months of the war were a complete embarrassment to the Russian military.

The plan NOW may indeed be to have the Ukrainians suck in as much NATO ammunition as possible, but the Russians have depleted much of their conventional offensive capability. To move against additional powers, they will need to go into a full mobilization, something Putin doesn't seem to want to do. A replacement of Putin might not have any such reservations.
The thing is that those weapons would not be that necessary to fight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Remember that China needs to move the vast majority of its men and equipment by ship. Anti tank missiles are not really necessary for that. The situation is much different than with Ukraine. Besides which, the countries opposing China are different than the ones opposing Russia with the exception of the US.
Japan has already said that they will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.

Navigator
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Guest wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:26 pm
Japan has already said that they will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
This is potentially how the US gets involved regardless of what Biden wants to do when it happens.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:28 pm
Guest wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:26 pm
Japan has already said that they will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
This is potentially how the US gets involved regardless of what Biden wants to do when it happens.
Japan is right next door to Taiwan--almost like Poland next to the Ukraine.

Navigator
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:34 pm
Navigator wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:55 pm
tim wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:55 am
Nyquist posted an interview with a source he has in China who said that Russia purposely is drawing Western anti tank munitions to Ukraine so the Western countries will be depleted of anti tank weapons when China attacks.
This was certainly not the initial Russian plan. I believe they though they could take over Ukraine like it was 1968 Czechoslovakia and were completely shocked to find themselves in a real fight.

The Russian efforts the first two months of the war were a complete embarrassment to the Russian military.

The plan NOW may indeed be to have the Ukrainians suck in as much NATO ammunition as possible, but the Russians have depleted much of their conventional offensive capability. To move against additional powers, they will need to go into a full mobilization, something Putin doesn't seem to want to do. A replacement of Putin might not have any such reservations.
The thing is that those weapons would not be that necessary to fight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Remember that China needs to move the vast majority of its men and equipment by ship. Anti tank missiles are not really necessary for that. The situation is much different than with Ukraine. Besides which, the countries opposing China are different than the ones opposing Russia with the exception of the US.
Sorry for any confusion. I was talking about Russian plan/plans. Even though the earlier quote is about China.

US ammunition would be a major issue should Korea again be a battleground, which I believe it will.

Anti ship missiles are much more important than Javelins in regards to defending Taiwan.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:59 am

Sorry for any confusion. I was talking about Russian plan/plans. Even though the earlier quote is about China.

US ammunition would be a major issue should Korea again be a battleground, which I believe it will.

Anti ship missiles are much more important than Javelins in regards to defending Taiwan.
I'm not so sure that North Korea will really try to start anything. The NK military pales in capability to SK with the exception of having a few crude nuclear weapons. Despite the rhetoric, my thinking is that Kim et al. are more concerned with keeping themselves in power than in trying to continue the Korean war. Any new excitement would not be like Ukraine since both SK and the US have modern equipment and strategies that will work. While Seoul may take a pounding for a while, NK's military and government would be destroyed meaning the Kims would be dead or out of a job. While there definitely is a run of insanity in the family, my thinking is that they understand the consequences or more adventures.

China is certainly more of a threat, but I tend to think Xi and the others also understand that China would suffer horribly since it is dependent on exports to survive.

Navigator
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:56 pm
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:59 am

Sorry for any confusion. I was talking about Russian plan/plans. Even though the earlier quote is about China.

US ammunition would be a major issue should Korea again be a battleground, which I believe it will.

Anti ship missiles are much more important than Javelins in regards to defending Taiwan.
I'm not so sure that North Korea will really try to start anything. The NK military pales in capability to SK with the exception of having a few crude nuclear weapons. Despite the rhetoric, my thinking is that Kim et al. are more concerned with keeping themselves in power than in trying to continue the Korean war. Any new excitement would not be like Ukraine since both SK and the US have modern equipment and strategies that will work. While Seoul may take a pounding for a while, NK's military and government would be destroyed meaning the Kims would be dead or out of a job. While there definitely is a run of insanity in the family, my thinking is that they understand the consequences or more adventures.

China is certainly more of a threat, but I tend to think Xi and the others also understand that China would suffer horribly since it is dependent on exports to survive.
My thinking is that the Chinese, once war breaks out, will look for ways to engage as much US and Japanese strength as possible, away from Taiwan. The best place for China to do this is Korea.

Also, as John points out, you are making rational and logical arguments, yet those are often thrown aside in major wars. All it takes is a couple of mid level hot-heads pushing some buttons, and you are at war.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:54 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:56 pm
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:59 am

Sorry for any confusion. I was talking about Russian plan/plans. Even though the earlier quote is about China.

US ammunition would be a major issue should Korea again be a battleground, which I believe it will.

Anti ship missiles are much more important than Javelins in regards to defending Taiwan.
I'm not so sure that North Korea will really try to start anything. The NK military pales in capability to SK with the exception of having a few crude nuclear weapons. Despite the rhetoric, my thinking is that Kim et al. are more concerned with keeping themselves in power than in trying to continue the Korean war. Any new excitement would not be like Ukraine since both SK and the US have modern equipment and strategies that will work. While Seoul may take a pounding for a while, NK's military and government would be destroyed meaning the Kims would be dead or out of a job. While there definitely is a run of insanity in the family, my thinking is that they understand the consequences or more adventures.

China is certainly more of a threat, but I tend to think Xi and the others also understand that China would suffer horribly since it is dependent on exports to survive.
My thinking is that the Chinese, once war breaks out, will look for ways to engage as much US and Japanese strength as possible, away from Taiwan. The best place for China to do this is Korea.

Also, as John points out, you are making rational and logical arguments, yet those are often thrown aside in major wars. All it takes is a couple of mid level hot-heads pushing some buttons, and you are at war.
While China does have a lot of influence over NK, it still cannot control it. I think it unlikely the Kims would go to war to help China seeing as how their comfy position as autocrats would be directly threatened. Self interest counts for a lot and the risk/reward ratio would be tilted strongly against NK.

I'd also argue that logic is always a part of decisions, just that the underlying facts and assumptions may not be true. I think Putin believed that the invasion of Ukraine could be accomplished easily and that it did make sense to do so. That he was operating on incorrect assumptions was the problem from the state of Ukraine's military, the state of Russia's military, the likely actions of Western countries, etc.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

LIVE UPDATES
UPDATED WED, JUN 29 20228:30 PM EDT
Russia calls NATO expansion deal ‘destabilizing’; Ukraine releases footage of deadly mall strike
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/russia- ... dates.html

June 28, 2022
9:05 PM EDT
Last Updated a day ago
Turkey lifts veto on Finland, Sweden joining NATO, clearing path for expansion
By Humeyra Pamuk and Anne Kauranen

Ukraine Latest: NATO Boosts Troops on Alert, Issues Invitations
Bloomberg News
Wed, June 29, 2022, 3:42 p.m.·10 min read
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ukrai ... 13474.html

Putin Ally Threatens Strike On Europe’s Largest Oil Hub
By Charles Kennedy - Jun 28, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/P ... l-Hub.html

The Catastrophic Environmental Consequences Of Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine
By RFE/RL staff - Jun 28, 2022, 3:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... raine.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

EU Walks Back Hard Line On Kaliningrad Standoff As Russia Places New Missiles On Baltic Coast
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUN 30, 2022 - 02:45 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... les-baltic

AFP
Expanding NATO squares up to Russia as Putin slams 'imperial' alliance
Max DELANY, with Dmytro Gorshkov in Kyiv
Tue, June 28, 2022, 10:20 AM·5 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-demands-u ... 35841.html

Patient and Confident, Putin Shifts Out of Wartime Crisis Mode
June 30, 2022in News
https://dnyuz.com/2022/06/30/patient-an ... isis-mode/

Why War in Ukraine is Causing Apocalyptic Famine
686,049 viewsJun 30, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bupS-d_cAtk
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Apparently, I have to head back to the hospital. I assume that I'll
be coming back home some time, but who knows? Be ready, Higgie.

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