Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

Several posts have been moved into a brand new topic,
"Race and Racism."
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 996#p46996

[Guest]

So how long do you think that the paranoid, deranged CCP officials
will wait to do something?

Soon. And the invasion of HK will lead Taiwan to declare formal independence. The mainland Chinese economy will implode. Next, food imports to China will be disrupted. There will be food riots in mainland cities.

Next move, China.

America should now station several US Navy warships in the Taiwan Straights. Either we are going to defend Taiwan or we are not. Time to show our hand.

[Guest]

So how long do you think that the paranoid, deranged CCP officials
will wait to do something?

Soon. And the invasion of HK will lead Taiwan to declare formal independence. The mainland Chinese economy will implode. Next, food imports to China will be disrupted. There will be food riots in mainland cities.

Next move, China.

America should now station several US Navy warships in the Taiwan Straights. Either we are going to defend Taiwan or we are not. Time to show our hand.

Taiwan Strait

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 28-Jul-2019 World View: How long will Beijing wait before invading Hong Kong

> The "CCP" could simply wait out the protests,.. not that I think
> they're gonna DO that, but there is NO real reason that they
> actually need to make a move at all on the protesters.

Statements like this assume that there's some sort of rationality to
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policies. Instead, as I've repeatedly
said, since the end of WW II they've pursued the stupidest policies in
the history of any nation in the world, from the Great Leap Forward to
the Tiananmen Square massacre to the genocide and ethnic cleansing of
Uighurs and Kazhaks in East Turkistan (Xinjiang).

There's a difference between "they could but don't NEED to" and "they will".

But, I do think that they won't because what the CCP can't tolerate more than anything else is HUMILIATION.

It would be MORE humiliating to slit-your-own-throat by destroying HK than to figure out some OTHER way to clamp down on HKers that would leave HK intact enough to carry on business.

All other "clamp downs" have had (even if only super-minimal) deniability, while "killing HK business capability" has absolutely NO deniability whatsoever.

..but them again, there is NO accounting for extreme stupidity, so it's still a coin-flip as to how this nuttiness progresses.

... According to an Indian analysis:

> "Going by a Xinhua report published on 24 July in
> Chinese, it appears that Beijing is in no mood to relent; on the
> contrary, it is ready to send forces to quell the resistance. It
> has bluntly warned both protesters and foreign forces, primarily
> the United States and Great Britain to “lay their unbearable black
> hands off Hong Kong”. As regards the protesters, the commentary
> says that “A handful of radicals in Hong Kong have perpetrated
> violence, seriously undermined Hong Kong’s social order, trampled
> on the rule of law in Hong Kong, and openly challenged the
> authority of the Central government”. ...

> According to another article titled “The causes, effects, and
> countermeasures of Hong Kong’s anti-China riots” by Hu Aiguo,
> China has failed to “comprehensively decolonize, take over the
> education and judiciary, and annul the destructive influence” ...

> Hu Aiguo’s article even accuses the CIA of instigating the
> riots. ... He reminds China that the disintegration of the
> Soviet Union began with the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia
> and Latvia."

So how long do you think that the paranoid, deranged CCP officials
will wait to do something? ...

The "highlighted" portions above would seem to indicate a probable "procedure" that the CCP could/might take (which is just a reapplication of their usual modus operandi):

Blame the whole affair on some "instigating minority" (including "foreign agents") and stomp the shit out of them, leaving the mechanism of commercial affairs functioning relatively untouched.

Until the "masses" of HK (and/or Taiwan) concretely illustrate HOW they can cause an actual internal rebellion, within the mainland, that truly threatens the CCP, the CCP CAN (not will) afford to keep picking off small groups of "rebels" one by one, and wait for "frustration" to build in the rebel forces.

If the rebels aren't "frustrated" sufficiently, and instead are emboldened to spread the rebellion, THEN the CCP will certainly go on a general anti-rebellion killing spree for which they can BLAME their "necessary internal anti-terrorist actions" on those they've killed, with support from the status-quo westerners whose overriding priority is business through Hong Kong.

That's my "prediction".

..I have about a 57% confidence in it's probability.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 28-Jul-2019 Request for help

On July 24, I sold 15 copies of my "War between China and Japan" book
in a single day. I have no idea why, but that's the most books I've
ever sold in one day. If I could do that every day, then I could
certainly continue to survive.

As regular readers know, I have almost no skills in public relations
or publicity. On a scale of 1 to 10, my skill level as a software
engineer is 12, and my skill level as an analyst/journalist is a 12.
But my skill level in people skills is about 2, as most members of
this forum are undoubtedly well aware. The same is true for my social
media skills.

Yeah,.. it's true. You are a complete misanthrope. But I like misanthropes!

As a 12/10 ("twelve out of ten", for those unacquainted with gamer rating systems) software "engineer"* you really ought to figure out how to make a (computer) game out of the implications of your GD Theory.

*(..and I reserve the title "engineer" as it applies to "software workers" to those who can engineer compilers and operating systems proper. I suspect this probably describes your fine self Johno, but what do I know.)

The game should "probably" be of the "grand strategy/political-societal simulation" type, where several "nations" (societies) are strewn about a planetary globe (where some or most of them are run by AIs) and "your" controlled nation, or nations, are manipulated by the various levers you have available to you to "persuade" them (the nation's mass population) to ride the GD Theory based "wave of inevitability" to the "betterment" of your controlled nation(s).

The obvious "levers" are those that appear in your theory: food, industry, raw natural resources, governmental systems, population size, ID-Politics aspects, hatreds/frustrations/enviousness/etc with neighbors, relative technology levels, and all the other "differentiations" between and within nations.

The "goal" of the game would be to "guide" your nation over 8 Generations (2 Crisis Cycles) into being a prosperous nation with "happy" people, whatever "prosperous" and "happy" may mean to you. Having your nation be destroyed per se would be "losing". Maybe. It's really up to the "Guide" player.

The "penultimate" goal of the game would be to play it out over scores of GD 4-Gen "Macro" Crisis cycles to "minimize" the "severity" of war over the ingame timeframe.

The "ultimate" goal would be to find a planetary "solution" to the whole GD Cycle itself, which should be quite the trick!

That would probably require some sort of "near global" well-intentioned absolute totalitarian power to enforce "niceness" with some super-nifty technology to effectively hard-wire brain-wash "the extreme nastiness" of Genocidal War into all of humanity perpetually,.. at which point the "totalitarian" part MIGHT be superfluous and expendable.

It sounds like a pretty cool project, yeah!? Go for it Mr. 12/10...!!

[Tom Mazanec]

FishbellykanakaDude, that was the best post you ever made!
Go for it, John!

[Guest]

• Protesters on Saturday preparing for teargas

Hong Kong to Beijing: piss off

[John]

** 29-Jul-2019 World Data Base

> As a 12/10 ("twelve out of ten", for those unacquainted with gamer
> rating systems) software
> "engineer"* you
> really ought to figure out how to make a (computer) game out of
> the implications of your GD Theory.

So, who's going to fund the development of this project? Do you plan
to invest, or do you have others who want to invest? Or is this just
another in your seemingly endless list of things I can do for free
that are totally time-wasting, cost money, and make no money? Sorry
to be a misanthrope, but those are the questions that need to be
asked.

Actually, some years ago, I pitched a project that I called "The World
Data Base." The program would collect all the generational
information about each country and society in the world, and store it
in a database. The data could come from history, from media and
from polls. Then the program would use GD-based algorithms to make
predictions on a country by country basis, such as changes in social
behavior, and compute the likelihood of social unrest or even war.

Because of the large amounts of data that would have to be
collected, the project would cost at least $1 million in development,
possibly growing to $5 million.

It would have applications in such things as predictive marketing,
and government planning. It might actually make a lot of money.

So are you willing to fund it?

[Guest]

• Protesters on Saturday preparing for teargas

Hong Kong to Beijing: piss off

Beijing will be the shining city on a pile of dead bodies...


It's getting closer. The end is getting closer.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 29-Jul-2019 World Data Base

> As a 12/10 ("twelve out of ten", for those unacquainted with gamer
> rating systems) software
> "engineer"* you
> really ought to figure out how to make a (computer) game out of
> the implications of your GD Theory.

So, who's going to fund the development of this project? Do you plan
to invest, or do you have others who want to invest? Or is this just
another in your seemingly endless list of things I can do for free
that are totally time-wasting, cost money, and make no money? Sorry
to be a misanthrope, but those are the questions that need to be
asked.

Actually, some years ago, I pitched a project that I called "The World
Data Base." The program would collect all the generational
information about each country and society in the world, and store it
in a database. The data could come from history, from media and
from polls. Then the program would use GD-based algorithms to make
predictions on a country by country basis, such as changes in social
behavior, and compute the likelihood of social unrest or even war.

Because of the large amounts of data that would have to be
collected, the project would cost at least $1 million in development,
possibly growing to $5 million.

It would have applications in such things as predictive marketing,
and government planning. It might actually make a lot of money.

So are you willing to fund it?

You're "bad" at "people stuff",.. I'm "bad" at "money stuff",.. so, no, I will not be funding much of anything. <chuckle!>

And yes,.. I do in fact have a truly endless list of (mostly) harebrained ideas about veritably everything that makes it's way into my field of view. That behavior of mine keeps the little gray cells reasonably well lubricated, but is mostly just for my own amusement. One of these days, though... one of these days... my "million $$$ boat" will come in! Or not... <chuckle!>

...rowing out to sea in a teeny spritsail rigged dory (stolen from some security challenged marina) will probably be my lot, unless I get my procrastination addicted butt in gear. We'll see. Not makin' any promises, but we'll see.

I (and probably several thousand others) would love to see your algorithms, and the "construction details" of your "country/world database", as that would be VERY instructive. It would actually be REALLY really great raw material for a game designer, who is not necessarily (in fact is usually not) the programmer per se, to spec out a game (or several games) so as to pitch it to someone WITH a bit of coin to toss at projects.

That's kinda what Kickstarter, and Indygogo and such like crowdfunding thingies are for.