Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 02-Nov-2019 World View: CCP plots mysterious Hong Kong change, as riots continue

Thousands of angry protesters continued anti-government demonstrations
in Hong Kong on Saturday, after they had already gone on for 22 weeks.
The violence was the worst in weeks, as they set fire to metro
stations and vandalized buildings including China’s official Xinhua
news agency. The police responded with tear gas and water cannons,
resulting in enormous chaos.

However, the big Hong Kong news this week was non-news -- the
mysterious unspecified governmental changes that the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) in Beijing is planning. Hong Kong was the main agenda
item on a four-day meeting, or plenum, of top CCP leaders in Beijing
this week, where Xi Jinping is said to have further consolidated his
power as dictator, the most powerful since Mao Zedong, who caused
disaster in China, killing tens of millions of people and almost
completely destroying China's agricultural infrasture with the Great
Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

Now Xi Jinping will have the opportunity to do something equally
disastrous in Hong Kong. We don't know what the CCP is going to do,
but we can be pretty sure that, whatever it is, it will make
things worse.

At a press conference, Shen Chunyao, a CCP official, said that the
"one country, two systems" philosophy would be continued. He said the
following about the plenum decision:

"Ruling Hong Kong and Macau under the one country, two
systems policy is a key component of the governance system of our
country and it was an important item for discussion at the
plenum. ...

We must uphold the principle that ‘one country’ is the top
priority and the foundation for the implementation of ‘two
systems’, and ‘two systems’ must belong to and come under ‘one
country’ and be unified within ‘one country’. ...

The plenum has made the decision that we must enhance the system
and mechanism over the appointment of the chief executive and
principal officials in the special administrative regions, and the
system over the interpretation of the Basic Law by the National
People’s Congress, enabling the central government to exercise its
authority as stipulated in the constitution and the Basic Law.

[We will] establish a sound legal system and enforcement mechanism
for the safeguarding of national security in the special
administrative regions, and support the special administrative
regions in strengthening law enforcement.

[We will] strengthen national education of Hong Kong and Macau
people, especially civil servants and youth, including education
of the constitution and the Basic Law, Chinese history and
culture, in order to boost their national consciousness and
patriotic spirit."

So it sounds like the CCP plans to change how Hong Kong is governed,
but no specific information is provided.

We do know that it will emphasize national security, which means
that it will be even more repressive, which will really piss people
off.

And we also know that there will be an emphasis of education of young
people in "the constitution and the Basic Law, Chinese history and
culture, in order to boost their national consciousness and patriotic
spirit," which will REALLY piss people off.

The problem with teaching Chinese history to Hong Kongers is that most
of the people are descendants of people who fled the CCP under Mao in
1949 and then lived under benign British rule, so teaching history
will certainly remind them of Mao's bloody dictatorship.

At any rate, all we know is that the CCP is plotting some mysterious
change in Hong Kong's government. Hong Kongers will have to wait
breathlessly to see what it is.

---- Sources:

-- Beijing reiterates call for Hong Kong to prioritise national
security, patriotic education
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... l-security
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 1-Nov-2019)

-- Hong Kong protesters trash Xinhua agency office in night of
violence
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hong ... SKBN1XC03J
(Reuters, 2-Nov-2019)

[John]

3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq


Confessional governments in Lebanon and Iraq


** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191103




Contents:
Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
History of the Iran/Iraq war
Confessional governments in Lebanon and Iraq
Global protests -- around the world


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Umm Qasr port,
Iran, Iran/Iraq war, Great Iraqi Revolution (1920),
Saddam Hussein, Popular Mobilization Units, PMUs,
Lebanon, confessional government, Hezbollah, Syria,
Winston Churchill, Chile, Pakistan,
Barcelona, Russia; Bolivia, HongKong, Ecuador

[Guest]

Chang: China is ‘the Third Reich in the 21st Century’

Scholar Gordan Chang warns that the United States must ultimately “disengage from China” on all fronts if it is to maintain its status as a global superpower or risk China’s massive potential to change the geopolitical structure of the world.

[John]

** 03-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong knife attacker bites politician's ear off

• Alleged attacker after being beaten by crowd and saved
  by police (SCMP)

Sunday was another day of high drama in Hong Kong. There were clashes
all day long between pro-democracy protesters and riot police, but
generally speaking there was less violence and chaos on Sunday than
there had been on Saturday.

But then in early evening, the drama began. A man yelled something
like "liberate Taiwan" or "reclaim Taiwan and Hong Kong" in Mandarin,
and shouted other pro-CCP slogans. In Hong Kong, Mandarin can be
thought of as the language of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), while
Cantonese can be thought of the language of the protesters.

The attacker than pulled out a knife and wounded at least five people,
leaving at least two in critical condition. Andrew Chiu Ka-yin, a
local pro-democracy councillor, tried to subdue the guy with the
knife, but the attacker then bit Chiu's ear off.

The crowd then started beating the crap out of the guy with the knife,
until the police came and saved him.

Tensions between Mandarin-speaking northern China and
Cantonese-speaking southern China continue to grow, raising growing
concerns in the CCP of a full-scale anti-government rebellion, as
happened in the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist
Revolution (1934-49). However, the CCP officials have no idea what to
do about it, but we can be sure that whatever they do will only make
the situation worse.

---- Sources:

-- Blood spilled over political differences in Hong Kong, with six
hurt as knife-wielding man attacks family after argument
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/pol ... er-sha-tin
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 3-Nov-2019)

-- Politician's ear bitten off during knife attack in Hong Kong
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... -hong-kong
(AFP, 3-Nov-2019)


---- Related articles:

** 26-Oct-19 World View -- Mike Pence harshly criticizes China as US bans Chinese surveillance equipment
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191026


** 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191002


** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190622


** 28-Jun-19 World View -- Book Announcement: World View: War between China and Japan - by John J. Xenakis
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190628

[John]

** 04-Nov-2019 World View: Democide and population growth

> Why does generational dynamics imply that generational crisis wars
> reduce the population? Or are we talking about some extension to
> that theory?

> Because the population grows faster than the food supply.

> That only implies that there has to be population reduction, or at
> least population growth reduction, at some point. It doesn't have
> to be linked to the generational cycle.

That's a good point, and it's one of the reasons that I've been
puzzled by this issue for years.

The generational cycle is very general, and and any catastrophic event
that affects the entire population creates its own generational cycle,
with unique behaviors related to the catastrophic event. Events like
this that I've discussed in the past include the 1918 Spanish Flu
epidemic, and the 1929 financial panic. The most visible effects of
the resulting generational cycles occur as I've described with the "58
Year Hypothesis," when a panic occurs 58 years after the event -- in
these examples the false swine flu panic in 1976 and the false stock
market panic in 1987, respectively.

So when we're talking about something as drastic as a fall in
population, or even a sharp fall in population growth, then it really
has to be associated with some event -- a huge famine, a huge
pandemic, or a huge war. And if it's a war, then it would have to be
tied into the major generational cycle generated by a crisis war.

I had assumed for years that the fall in population was caused by war
deaths during a generational crisis war, but I was never able to find
data to support that assumption. The introduction of the effects of
"democide" still tie the fall in population (growth) into the war's
generational cycle, but not directly into the generational crisis war
itself that spawned the generational cycle.

There is still speculation involved in this, and obviously a lot more
research is needed, but the democide concept really is like a missing
puzzle piece that completes the jigsaw. I really am pleased by how
much it ties together the other theoretical pieces, particularly when
democide occurs after a generational crisis war which was an ethnic,
racial, tribal or class civil war. The democide occurs because the
leader of the tribe that won the civil war keeps killing people in the
opposition tribe for decades after the war ends, resulting in a loss
of population through "democide."

There are other population effects that appear to occur around a
crisis war: delays in marriage and having children before and during a
crisis war, increase in suicide rate before and during a crisis war,
and then a baby boom after the crisis war.

There's still a lot of stuff to be figured out here, such as how a
regional democide affects neighboring nations, and how regional
democides affect the global population as a whole. But I really see
this as answering some major questions, and pulling together pieces of
the Generational Dynamics theory into a whole picture.

[Guest]

Where is fishbelly?

[DaKardii]

John, I have a few things to say about "18-Oct-19 World View -- Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire agreement," which can be found at http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 191018.htm.

At one point in the article, you state:

If you look at all the list of groups fighting in Syria, you'll see that almost all of them are small ethnic or ad-hoc groups with various agendas. But not all.

In that list, there are six national armies actively fighting: Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon-Hezbollah, United States.

Of these six, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon-Hezbollah have armies in generational Awakening eras, with little will to fight an expanding war.

Two of them, Turkey and Russia, are in generational Crisis eras.

You seem to be implying that Russia is the main external force pushing Assad to continue the war, which is a non-crisis war for Syria, well past its natural ending point. You also seem to be implying that Turkey is playing a similar role regarding the rebels. If that's the case, then I agree with both of those implications.

In my opinion, the war in Syria is causing the entire Middle East to slowly be transformed into a "preparation ground" for a much larger conflict between Russia and Turkey. Turkey is attempting to expand (its influence or territory) southward in hopes of bringing enough of the region under its influence or control, because it's going to need that if it expects to win a war against Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to expand (its influence or territory) into the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Balkans to create buffer zones against Turkey, while also using third parties such as Iran, Syria, and even Saudi Arabia to curb Turkey's own expansionism.

This upcoming conflict will be many decades in the making. In my opinion, it can all be traced back to the end of the last war Russia and Turkey fought: World War I, which was also a crisis war for both countries. World War I led to the collapse of both the Russian and the Ottoman Empires. Both countries lost large amounts of territory and had their monarchies overthrown. Neither country ever got over the loss of their empires, even with new regimes in power. This was made clear both during WWII and during the Cold War, although during those times neither country was in the mood to fight another round. They were in generational High, Awakening, and Unraveling eras back then. The collapse of the USSR was a turning point. Since then, several conflicts that can be seen as part of a wider conflict between Russia and Turkey have broken out. Nagorno-Karabakh, Yugoslavia, the wars in the Northern Caucasus, Ukraine, and now Syria.

It doesn't matter who is in power in either country. Conflict is inevitable. Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing sides in these conflicts before anyone had even heard of either Vladimir Putin or Recep Erdogan. The foreign policies of those two leaders are not the disease itself, but rather symptoms of the disease.

[John]

** 07-Nov-2019 FishbellykanakaDude

> Where is fishbelly?

I have no idea what happened to FishbellykanakaDude. He simply
disappeared one day and was never heard from again. My working
assumption is that I said something or other that pissed him off,
since sooner or later I piss everyone off. But I don't know that for
a fact.

[John]

** 07-Nov-2019 World View: Generational Dynamics 'Doom Articles'

> Many doom articles. However, you will find very little available
> anywhere else, in a mainstream fashion, which reports anything
> even half truthfully. I'd rather have doom articles and prepare
> for the worst than to live in LaLa Land and prepare for
> nothing.

> John, thank you for running this forum. I tell people that they
> are high for the past decade if they think a peace agreement in
> Syria can be implemented. Due to the barbaric behavior of the
> cultures involved, like this:
> https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/statu ... 0024142850 It
> will be a century or more before ethnic group could forgive each
> other. With modern technology being able to store and archive
> horrible events like this, it will be harder to over come cultural
> biases that come with when a ethnic/religious/ tribe women are
> violated. The dark ages are there again.

That's an interesting point about using modern technology to store and
archive atrocities.

With regard to "doom articles": You're right that there is no other
web site that covers this kind of material. It really is amazing that
GenerationalDynamics.com is unique in the world. The generational
methodology has proven to be a major development for producing
accurate analyses and forecasts. No other web site comes close.

While I'm at it, let me provide an update on the future of
Generational Dynamics and me. As I wrote a year ago, I'm going to run
out of money, and that will be the end of Generational Dynamics and
me. I had expected to be gone by now. But I've cut expenses, and I
got a small amount of work writing. In addition, I've gotten a number
of small donations, for which I'm extremely grateful. These have
allowed me to extend my life into next year, probably somewhere
between February and April. But it's not enough. There's still
always hope that someone will offer me a job as a Senior Software
Engineer or a journalist/analyst, but after two years it's clear that
people my age are almost universally viewed as garbage, and there is
no credible hope for me. As for the Generational Dynamics forum,
Higgie has agreed to take it over when the time comes.

[John]

** 07-Nov-2019 World View: Russia and Turkey

> John, I have a few things to say about "18-Oct-19 World View --
> Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire
> agreement," which can be found at
> http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 191018.htm.

> At one point in the article, you state: ...

> You seem to be implying that Russia is the main external force
> pushing Assad to continue the war, which is a non-crisis war for
> Syria, well past its natural ending point. You also seem to be
> implying that Turkey is playing a similar role regarding the
> rebels. If that's the case, then I agree with both of those
> implications.

With regard to Russia and Assad, it's the other way around. The war
would have fizzled out quickly if it hadn't been for Assad. Assad is
a sociopathic monster, who wants to finish his father's job of
exterminating the Sunni Arabs. Even so, he would have lost to the
Arabs, except that he got the Russians to support him in return for
giving Russia two military bases inside Syria, the Tartus naval base
and Hmeimim airbase. Putin is completely lacking in any morality
whatsoever, but he isn't the same kind of sociopathic monster as
Assad. For Putin, it's just opportunistic genocide and ethnic
cleansing.

Turkey obviously doesn't want any part of the war in Syria, but
they've been forced into it because of the flood of millions of
refugees, and because of the threat of a Kurdish state in Syria on the
Turkish border. For that reason, Turkey is involved in the war, but
as little as possible.

> In my opinion, the war in Syria is causing the entire Middle East
> to slowly be transformed into a "preparation ground" for a much
> larger conflict between Russia and Turkey. Turkey is attempting to
> expand (its influence or territory) southward in hopes of bringing
> enough of the region under its influence or control, because it's
> going to need that if it expects to win a war against
> Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to expand (its influence
> or territory) into the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Balkans to
> create buffer zones against Turkey, while also using third parties
> such as Iran, Syria, and even Saudi Arabia to curb Turkey's own
> expansionism.

> This upcoming conflict will be many decades in the making. In my
> opinion, it can all be traced back to the end of the last war
> Russia and Turkey fought: World War I, which was also a crisis war
> for both countries. World War I led to the collapse of both the
> Russian and the Ottoman Empires. Both countries lost large amounts
> of territory and had their monarchies overthrown. Neither country
> ever got over the loss of their empires, even with new regimes in
> power. This was made clear both during WWII and during the Cold
> War, although during those times neither country was in the mood
> to fight another round. They were in generational High, Awakening,
> and Unraveling eras back then. The collapse of the USSR was a
> turning point. Since then, several conflicts that can be seen as
> part of a wider conflict between Russia and Turkey have broken
> out. Nagorno-Karabakh, Yugoslavia, the wars in the Northern
> Caucasus, Ukraine, and now Syria.

> It doesn't matter who is in power in either country. Conflict is
> inevitable. Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing sides in
> these conflicts before anyone had even heard of either Vladimir
> Putin or Recep Erdogan. The foreign policies of those two leaders
> are not the disease itself, but rather symptoms of the
> disease.

Your reference to Syria as a "preparation ground" for a much larger
war is a very appealing analogy -- thinking of a growing mass of
flammable tinder on the ground, waiting for a match to light it.
However, I think it's now months away, not decades.

I've written many times about the many wars between Russia and Turkey.

** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151125

Nonetheless, I have a great deal of trouble saying with certainty
that there will be a crisis war between Turkey. Here are some issues:

• Before the Ottoman conquest, Anatolia was the Orthodox Christian
  Byzantine Empire, and the Muslims and Orthodox Christians have largely
  coexisted peacefully since then.
• Although WW I was a devastating crisis war for both Russia and Turkey,
  it was not a war they fought against each other.
• They did fight each other in the Crimean War, but that was less
  a war with each other and more a war over Jerusalem, as Russia considered
  itself the protector of Jerusalem since the fall of the Byzantine Empire.
• China is arresting millions of Uighur Muslims and using them as
  slave labor for its war machine. This is a potentially explosive
  issue for Turkey, since the Uighurs and the other Muslim ethnic groups
  in Central Asia are mostly Turkic. Furthermore, Russia has a stake in
  protecting Central Asia from China, because those countries were part
  of the Soviet Empire. So Russia and Turkey are aligned in Central
  Asia against China.

On the other hand, the war between the Christian Armenians and the
Turkic Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh could expand into a larger war
between Russia and Turkey, but I wouldn't expect that, since it's
an Awakening era for both countries.

So you may be right that there will be a generational crisis war
between Russia and Turkey. I may have suggested it myself in the
past. But it's complicated, and certainly not an open and shut case.

One more thing: You say "Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing
sides in these conflicts," and that's true, but it's still not a war
between Russia and Turkey. Particularly what we've seen recently,
Russia and Turkey have supported opposing sides in Syria but even more
than that they've cooperated with each other to prevent the war from
expanding.