Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 10-Nov-2019 World View: Cuban Missile Crisis
John wrote: > ** 07-Nov-2019 58 years vs 80 years

> The 58 Year Hypothesis applies to any situation where a
> catastrophic event occurs that affects the entire
> population.
Higgenbotham wrote: > What will happen 58 years from the Cuban Missile Crisis?
The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed tens of millions of people. The
1929 stock market panic sent tens of millions of people into poverty.
The 1945 nuking of Japan killed millions of people.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was an overnight political event. It was in
no way a catastrophic event.

Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Actually, the nuking of Japan killed something like 200,000 people. It does seem that ever since Iraq, isolationism has become popular again. We'd rather give up being policeman of the world and have everyone else deal with their own problems. I'm getting the impression that at least some of this blindness is deliberate, simply because we don't want to think about the possibility. Much easier to say the world will end in 12 years because of climate change.

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Higgenbotham wrote:
John wrote:** 07-Nov-2019 58 years vs 80 years

The 58 Year Hypothesis applies to any situation where a catastrophic event occurs that affects the entire population.
What will happen 58 years from the Cuban Missile Crisis?
It will either be the "Cuban 1950's Chevy Parts Crisis", or the "Cuban and Venezuelan Poor Eat the Rich Crisis".

..I'm hoping for the latter, as I love zombie scenarios.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales resigns

Image
  • Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales
    announces his resignation on national television (AP)


Bolivia's far-left President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday after
nearly 14 years in power. The resignation follows a heavily disputed
re-election on October 20, leading to weeks of riots and chaos.

As usual, racism is the dominating factor in Bolivia's society.
Society is split between the descendants of the Spanish invaders,
along with the mestizos, which form a market dominant minority, versus
the indigenous groups, led by the far-left indigenous president Evo
Morales.

Evo Morales has been in power since 2006. The constitution prohibited
him from running for a third term, so in 2016 he ran a national
referendum to authorize his running for a third term. He lost the
referendum, but ran for a third term anyway, and won. In last month's
elections, he was running for a fourth term.

In the meantime, his cronies have been corrupting the voting system
during the last few years. When the election finally took place last
month, the election commission stopped in the middle of counting the
votes, when it appeared that Morales was going to lose. They started
counting votes again the next day, but suddenly Morales was winning.

This triggered weeks of street protests and riots by people demanding
a new election. As the riots continued week after week, the army
generals over the weekend finally turned against Morales, and said
that he should step down.

Morales resigned, or said he would resign, saying that it was
necessary because his supporters were being harassed, persecuted and
threatened. He said he was leaving to help protect families of
political allies, after their homes were burned down. He reportedly
has fled to Cochabamba, a region of Bolivia which is a stronghold of
his indigenous supporters.

Now Morales is calling the situation a coup, and some reports say that
the claim to resign was a ruse. According to reports, he's waiting to
see if the streets get filled with people supporting him.

Politicians in other far-left Latin American countries -- Venezuela,
Nicaragua, Cuba -- are also calling the resignation a coup. Mexico
has offered Morales asylum.

Along with Morales, the next two successors, vice-President Alvaro
García and Senate President Adriana Salvatierra, also resigned,
leaving a power vacuum in Bolivia. There are fears of more riots and
violence and that the army may step in to maintain order.

--- Source:

-- Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid election protests
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50370013
(BBC, 11-Nov-2019)

-- Bolivia ex-president Evo Morales on the run as supporters clash
with police, barricade roads
https://www.foxnews.com/world/bolivia-p ... supporters
(Fox News, 11-Nov-2019)

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Isolationism and war with China
Trevor wrote: > Actually, the nuking of Japan killed something like 200,000
> people. It does seem that ever since Iraq, isolationism has become
> popular again. We'd rather give up being policeman of the world
> and have everyone else deal with their own problems. I'm getting
> the impression that at least some of this blindness is deliberate,
> simply because we don't want to think about the possibility. Much
> easier to say the world will end in 12 years because of climate
> change.
Thanks for the correction.

I don't read Trump's policies as isolationist. I read them as
preserving resources for the inevitable war with China, which Trump is
well aware of.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Violence increases sharply in Hong Kong

Image
  • A protester is detained by police Monday in Hong Kong. (AP)


Following the worst weekend of violence in Hong Kong since the
pro-democracy protests began 24 weeks ago, there were further major
acts of violence on Monday.

Police have been using massive amounts of tear gas, but on Monday
there was a major escalation when the police used live fire and shot a
protester in the stomach. The Hong Kong hospital authority said the
person was initially in critical condition but was stable after
surgery.

In a second incident, caught on video, a pro-Bejing man argued with a
group of young people. Someone doused him with a liquid and struck a
lighter. The man was engulfed in flames, and is in critical
condition.

Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam gave a press conference in which she
promised to “spare no effort” to halt anti-government protests. She
said the following:
"I do not want to go into details, but I just want to
make it very clear that we will spare no effort in finding ways
and means that could end the violence in Hong Kong as soon as
possible.

If there is still any wishful thinking that, by escalating
violence, the Hong Kong SAR [Special Administrative
Region]government will yield to pressure to satisfy the so-called
political demands, I am making this statement clear and loud here:
That will not happen.

These rioters’ actions have far exceeded their demands, and they
are enemies of the people."
Lam did not say what steps will be taken to end the protests.

As I've written in the past, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
absolutely does not want to initiate military action with the Chinese
army. They could not solve the problem any better than the Hong Kong
police can, and the CCP would be blamed for massive amounts of
violence, all caught on video.

An army intervention would also create a massive international
backlash of criticism. It would also make it impossible for Trump to
agree to a trade deal that China desperately wants.

On the other hand, there is no chance that the protests will fizzle
out and die. They are being fueled by two major immutables:
  • Every young Hong Konger knows that if he brings children into
    the world, they will become brutally controlled by the CCP starting in
    2047.
  • The Hong Kong protests are along the same fault line as the last
    two massive , full-scale anti-government rebellion, the Taiping
    Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution
    (1934-49).
The CCP are well aware of these issues, but don't know what to do
about them. The only thing that's certain is that, whatever they do,
they will make the problem worse.

---- Sources:

-- Hong Kong leader suggests harsher crackdown on protests after
especially violent day
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong- ... 2019-11-11
(MktWat/AP, 11-Nov-2019)

-- Hong Kong’s Violence Will Get Worse
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/11/po ... get-worse/
(ForeignPolicy, 11-Nov-2019)

-- 2047 / The Date Hong Kong Protesters Can’t Escape
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... 47/601768/
(Atlantic, 11-Nov-2019)

---- Related:

** 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191002



** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190622

Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

Sorry Boomers But the protesters have officially gone Antifa, they have lost all credibility on the world stage. Any anti-CCP revolt would come from the rural interior of China instead of the Cities because the Cities have disproportionately benefited from the commercialization of China since Mao's death. The Cities are Pro-CCP. Such a revolt would have economic motives, not political "we don't like being ruled by a communist party" motvies.

Boomers like to pretend that we still live in the world of 1979, and pretend that the capitalism/communism pre-1979 divide is the still the main division in global politics. Sorry but a rather significant event occurred between 1979 and 1992, the fall of Communism. Islamism today is far more overtly totalitarian than the pathetic remnants of the commies. Boomers have been pretending that the fall of the Berlin wall never happened. No do they care about fighting the current war, Posters instead pretend that America has been at peace since 1975. Sorry Boomers but we haven't been 3T for 18 years and two months now.

Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

Cynic Hero 86 wrote:Sorry Boomers But the protesters have officially gone Antifa, they have lost all credibility on the world stage. Any anti-CCP revolt would come from the rural interior of China instead of the Cities because the Cities have disproportionately benefited from the commercialization of China since Mao's death. The Cities are Pro-CCP. Such a revolt would have economic motives, not political "we don't like being ruled by a communist party" motvies.

Boomers like to pretend that we still live in the world of 1979, and pretend that the capitalism/communism pre-1979 divide is the still the main division in global politics. Sorry but a rather significant event occurred between 1979 and 1992, the fall of Communism. Islamism today is far more overtly totalitarian than the pathetic remnants of the commies. Boomers have been pretending that the fall of the Berlin wall never happened. No do they care about fighting the current war, Posters instead pretend that America has been at peace since 1975. Sorry Boomers but we haven't been 3T for 18 years and two months now.
To follow up regarding the Trade war, Trump blundered by proclaiming his negotiations to be on behalf for "the world". The Negotiating Position he should have articulated was that His objective would be to force china to make concessions to the United States of America and that he is negotiating on behalf of the United States.

Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

Cynic Hero 86 wrote:
Cynic Hero 86 wrote:Sorry Boomers But the protesters have officially gone Antifa, they have lost all credibility on the world stage. Any anti-CCP revolt would come from the rural interior of China instead of the Cities because the Cities have disproportionately benefited from the commercialization of China since Mao's death. The Cities are Pro-CCP. Such a revolt would have economic motives, not political "we don't like being ruled by a communist party" motvies.

Boomers like to pretend that we still live in the world of 1979, and pretend that the capitalism/communism pre-1979 divide is the still the main division in global politics. Sorry but a rather significant event occurred between 1979 and 1992, the fall of Communism. Islamism today is far more overtly totalitarian than the pathetic remnants of the commies. Boomers have been pretending that the fall of the Berlin wall never happened. No do they care about fighting the current war, Posters instead pretend that America has been at peace since 1975. Sorry Boomers but we haven't been 3T for 18 years and two months now.
To follow up regarding the Trade war, Trump blundered by proclaiming his negotiations to be on behalf for "the world". The Negotiating Position he should have articulated was that His objective would be to force china to make concessions to the United States of America and that he is negotiating on behalf of the United States.

Finally regarding the Boomers and the following three generations. The boomers are being disingenuous here, because any generation is supposed to half less responsibility in their younger years than they do in their older years until they reach middle age when their power is supposed to peak. Boomers however have always began restricting the power of the young generations when the oldest cohorts of those generations they reach the mid to late 20s but hardly before that. Its always the same pattern boomers encourage the young prior to their mid-20s but then decide to suppress them.

The real division is fundamentally ideological, it has nothing to do with competence or lack of competence. Boomers have now seen their third generation grow into adults and a repeating the same tropes after initially encouraging the young as counterweights against some older generation. Could it be because boomers can't admit that their ideologies and philosophies are shitty? Nobody other than boomer ideologues likes globalism and America being a "human rights" retarded guy on the world stage. We chose Trump and Not Hillary for that reason.

We Don't believe in the mutual-interlocking between the concept of a "strong America" and the concept of strong "human rights". We want a "strong America" without the "human rights" globalist bullshit. The Boomer Conception that the Country should not exist at all if it is not championing "human rights" and "Globalism" is regarded by the three younger generations as frankly treasonous.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

** 11-Nov-2019 World View: Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales resigns

Image
  • Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales
    announces his resignation on national television (AP)


Are these his cabinet ministers? :shock: I'm Shocked! Shocked! I can't believe these earthy people made such a mess of it. :roll:

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