Generational Dynamics World View News

[Burner Prime]

** 03-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus story in the news

I've watched three different networks this morning, and here's what I
saw:

....

Ditto that,
Drudge Report headlines feature celebs shaking their booty at the Super Bowl, Trump and Bloomberg calling each other names, more sports and election year stuff. Corona virus (and London terror incident) are down the list of ordinary headlines.
However NHK Japanese news made Corona virus top headline and feature story.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 03-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus story in the news

I've watched three different networks this morning, and here's what I
saw:

....

Ditto that,
Drudge Report headlines feature celebs shaking their booty at the Super Bowl, Trump and Bloomberg calling each other names, more sports and election year stuff. Corona virus (and London terror incident) are down the list of ordinary headlines.
However NHK Japanese news made Corona virus top headline and feature story.

Gonna make a controversial contention:

The targets of the country "most likely to be the war-starter in the upcoming Crisis-War" are the "news outlets" to watch for "realism" prior to a Crisis-War.

The reason most of the US (Democrat) News Media doesn't follow this rule is because they are stuck in one or another generational phase in the past. (Mostly the late 60's [awakening] and 80's/90's [unraveling].)

[Trevor]

Personally, I think they've got their heads wedged up their asses, but that's only my opinion.

[John]

4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'


The Timeline for the coming months

** 4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200204



Contents:
China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'
Social unrest in China
The Timeline for the coming months
The 'Black Swan' events after the Wuhan coronavirus


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan, coronavirus,
Anhui, Chongqing, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hebei,
Heilonjiang, Henan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Jilin,
Liaoning, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Shanxi, Suzhou, Xi'an,
Xi Jinping, Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Black Swan, Taiping, Communist Revolution

[FishbellykanakaDude]

[richard5za]

4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'


The Timeline for the coming months

** 4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200204

Interesting well written article, John. Yes, we are very short on information.
Another Black Swan is that the virus spreads very quickly and regions or even large areas of the planet run out of antibiotics and being a pneumonia the death rate increases to 10% or 20% which was the case with the Spanish flu (before antibiotics)

[richard5za]

[quote="richard5za"][quote="John"]4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'


The Timeline for the coming months

** 4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200204

I did some more research. Dead is only 2% of total infections, but dead plus serious condition in nearly 16%. So my point on having enough antibiotics on hand might be correct; depends upon speed of infection, I suppose. I imagine countries like USA would always have enough medicine, but it could be a disaster in other parts of the planet

[John]

** 04-Feb-2020 World View: Asia's economic outlook

> Asia here. Again. The weekend saw a collapse in local business,
> unless your business was connected to food deliveries and selling
> clothing and shoes online. Stores are nearly empty as people are
> afraid to venture out from their homes. Restaurants are nearly
> empty, if not entirely empty. Many business owners sent their
> employees home early or gave them the weekend off. Many were told
> not to come in on Monday unless they were telephoned to do
> so. It's only a harbinger of what is to come.

> I don't live in China. I can assure you, this is the situation all
> over the region. Asia's economic outlook is catastrophically
> bad. I expect a quarter of all small businesses in this country to
> be bankrupt by spring, if this keeps up. If this isn't a 'Black
> Swan', then I can't imagine how terrible one would be witnessing
> after this.

> All this and I'll can think about is: I hope I don't get
> sick.

You wrote this on Sunday. Two days have passed since then. Do things
look any different today? Are restaurants starting to fill up again?
Are people beginning to shop again? Or are things getting worse and
worse?

[John]

** 04-Feb-2020 World View: Intensive care for Wuhan coronavirus

> John, the current death rate may be 2.1%, but if this does
> not stop spreading soon it will go a lot higher. Something like 10
> or even 20 percent of the patients only survive with hospital
> intensive care. There are not enough intensive care units to
> handle millions of patients.

> I did some more research. Dead is only 2% of total infections, but
> dead plus serious condition in nearly 16%. So my point on having
> enough antibiotics on hand might be correct; depends upon speed of
> infection, I suppose. I imagine countries like USA would always
> have enough medicine, but it could be a disaster in other parts of
> the planet

This is an important point that I've been ignoring.

The death rate for people who contract the virus is being estimated at
around 2.1%. However, another 15-20% become very ill and survive only
because because they've received intensive medical care in a hospital.
That's why China has been building "pop-up hospitals" in Hubei
province, each one capable of housing 1,000 patients.

These "pop-up hospitals" are a very interesting development. The
Chinese developed this technology as part of "lessons learned" from
the SARS crisis in China in 2002-2003. The Chinese are staffing them
with military medics. I believe that three of these hospitals have
been built, as each one can be built within a week. In the months to
come, there should be some reports on how well they worked.

However, the obvious point is that no such "pop-up hospitals" are
possible outside of China. And so if there are outbreaks in other
countries, there will not be enough hospital space, the the death rate
may go much higher than 2.1%.

[John]

** 04-Feb-2020 World View: Exponential growth of new Wuhan coronavirus cases

This graph exhibits exponential growth:

• Exponential growth of new Wuhan coronavirus cases

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/0 ... rus-110550

As I've been writing in my articles, we should know by March 1 whether
this rate of growth will continue, or whether it will level off.