Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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Russia moves to formally annex swathes of Ukraine
Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light
Tue, September 20, 2022 at 3:18 AM·5 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/medvedev-says-mo ... 04364.html

Ukrainian forces recapture village in Luhansk region as Russia loses control
Edited By: Sayan Ghosh
New Delhi Updated: Sep 20, 2022, 08:32 AM(IST)
https://www.wionews.com/world/ukrainian ... rol-517905

Zelenskyy Vows No Let Up as Ukraine Says Troops Cross Key River in Northeast
Monday, 19 September 2022 08:40 AM EDT
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russi ... d/1088090/

UkraineAlert
September 17, 2022
Putin’s Russian Empire is collapsing like its Soviet predecessor
By Taras Kuzio
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... edecessor/

Ukraine’s ambassador describes ‘war crimes of massive proportions’
By DAVID COHEN
09/18/2022 10:01 AM EDT
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/1 ... a-00057349

Russia strikes Ukrainian nuclear plant in enormous nighttime strikejust 300 yards from the reactors
By JACK NEWMAN FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 02:50 EDT, 19 September 2022 | UPDATED: 21:08 EDT, 19 September 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... dings.html

UPDATED TUE, SEP 20 20223:46 AM EDT
Biden warns Putin against using nuclear weapons; another nuclear plant hit by Russian strike
Natasha Turak
Amanda Macias
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/russia- ... dates.html

For Russia’s Putin, military and diplomatic pressures mount
By JON GAMBRELL
September 17, 2022
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... ab95ae4bd6

Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy Vows to Press Ahead and Retake Country
Bloomberg News
Sun, September 18, 2022 at 4:55 p.m.·7 min read
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ukrai ... 31057.html

September 21, 2022
China Prepares for Another War of Conquest
By William R. Hawkins
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... quest.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Could the recent riots in Iran being down the Islamic republic? Could we get the Shah back?

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Bob Butler
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Morality Police

Post by Bob Butler »

Guest wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:30 am
Could the recent riots in Iran being down the Islamic republic? Could we get the Shah back?
I would doubt it. This is very much an internal affair, not a rejection of Iran’s attempt to export their culture in the Middle East. Their people are challenging the religious faction somewhat, but that would increase the power of the secular government rather than bring back the Shah.

It reminds me a bit of the abortion issue in the US. The Conservative faction is trying to impose morals on women and the population in general doesn’t care for it. You would hope the riots weaken the Morality Police a bit, but they might press and gain more strength.

Edit: The Iranian women are burning their hijabs now.

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Guest wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:30 am
Could the recent riots in Iran being down the Islamic republic? Could we get the Shah back?
Wednesday September 21 2022

I've written about this subject many times in the past, including in my book on the history of Iran and islam.

for iran, the last generational crisis War was the 1979 Islamic revolution Civil War, followed by the Iran Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.

when any Civil War ends, one side or the other may have been forced to surrender, but the differences between the two sides are never resolved. so in 1999, there were violence anti-government student riots that were repeated
in 2003 and in 2009. there have been additional rides from time to time, as recently as 2020. so now it's 2022,. and we have new riots originating from the Kurdish region in Northwest Erin.

the students who rioted in 1989 were opposed to the harsh social restrictions imposed by the Islamic Republic. those students are now aged in their 30s and 40s, and they're in positions of power. the women are particularly infuriated, as women are inclined to be, because most of the social restrictions are imposed on women, including the requirement that women must wear head scarves or hijabs. it was a woman who was killed after refusing to wear a head scarf that triggered the sequence of events that led to the current riots.

so today, Iran is in an Awakening era, and is due for an Awakening era climax, such as the Awakening climax that resulted in the resignation of Richard Nixon in america.

it's not all together clear what the results would be of an Awakening era climax in Iran. in america, it resulted in the resignation of nixon, but it was not the end of the entire government, since the vice president became president. in iran, it would almost certainly results in the resignation of the supreme leader, but he may simply be replaced by another supreme leader.

however, that's not what I would expect. because of the size of the growing younger generations that oppose the Islamic republic, and because the older generations that survived the Civil War and the Iran Iraq War are becoming too old to retain influence. so I would expect to see something like what we call a bloodless coup or velvet Cool, where the hardcore Islamic regime is replaced by something a lot more moderate. in that case, it's quite likely that the shah will return.

so what's going on today is just another generational riot, such as those that have been going on since 1999. maybe it will fizzle, or maybe it will trigger a full-scale Awakening era climax. we'll see.

note: all spelling and typographical errors should be blamed on Google's transcription software.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:10 pm
Guest wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:30 am
Could the recent riots in Iran being down the Islamic republic? Could we get the Shah back?
Wednesday September 21 2022

I've written about this subject many times in the past, including in my book on the history of Iran and islam.

for iran, the last generational crisis War was the 1979 Islamic revolution Civil War, followed by the Iran Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.

when any Civil War ends, one side or the other may have been forced to surrender, but the differences between the two sides are never resolved. so in 1999, there were violence anti-government student riots that were repeated
in 2003 and in 2009. there have been additional rides from time to time, as recently as 2020. so now it's 2022,. and we have new riots originating from the Kurdish region in Northwest Erin.

the students who rioted in 1989 were opposed to the harsh social restrictions imposed by the Islamic Republic. those students are now aged in their 30s and 40s, and they're in positions of power. the women are particularly infuriated, as women are inclined to be, because most of the social restrictions are imposed on women, including the requirement that women must wear head scarves or hijabs. it was a woman who was killed after refusing to wear a head scarf that triggered the sequence of events that led to the current riots.

so today, Iran is in an Awakening era, and is due for an Awakening era climax, such as the Awakening climax that resulted in the resignation of Richard Nixon in america.

it's not all together clear what the results would be of an Awakening era climax in Iran. in america, it resulted in the resignation of nixon, but it was not the end of the entire government, since the vice president became president. in iran, it would almost certainly results in the resignation of the supreme leader, but he may simply be replaced by another supreme leader.

however, that's not what I would expect. because of the size of the growing younger generations that oppose the Islamic republic, and because the older generations that survived the Civil War and the Iran Iraq War are becoming too old to retain influence. so I would expect to see something like what we call a bloodless coup or velvet Cool, where the hardcore Islamic regime is replaced by something a lot more moderate. in that case, it's quite likely that the shah will return.

so what's going on today is just another generational riot, such as those that have been going on since 1999. maybe it will fizzle, or maybe it will trigger a full-scale Awakening era climax. we'll see.

note: all spelling and typographical errors should be blamed on Google's transcription software.
Thank you, John.

A Shah supporter who wants to go home

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Morality Police

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Bob Butler wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:58 am
Guest wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:30 am
Could the recent riots in Iran being down the Islamic republic? Could we get the Shah back?
I would doubt it. This is very much an internal affair, not a rejection of Iran’s attempt to export their culture in the Middle East. Their people are challenging the religious faction somewhat, but that would increase the power of the secular government rather than bring back the Shah.

It reminds me a bit of the abortion issue in the US. The Conservative faction is trying to impose morals on women and the population in general doesn’t care for it. You would hope the riots weaken the Morality Police a bit, but they might press and gain more strength.

Edit: The Iranian women are burning their hijabs now.
Bob, were the Abolitionists wrong for trying to impose morals on the Southrons, who in general did not care for it?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

China Reacts To Putin Speech, Urges Immediate Ceasefire & Dialogue
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 - 08:20 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china ... e-dialogue

China Remains Supportive Of Kazakhstan As Russia Ramps Up Rhetoric
By The Jamestown Foundation - Sep 20, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Intern ... toric.html

UMC founder plans to buy 1 million attack drones for Taiwan
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2022/09/21 14:44
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4664184

Captured Russian tanks aid Ukraine’s push
AP and AFP, KYIV and MOSCOW
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/ ... 2003785692

HATEFUL EIGHT Another former Putin ally dies after ‘falling down several flights of stairs’ as eight cronies are mysteriously killed
Anthony Blair
8:25 ET, Sep 21 2022Updated: 10:26 ET, Sep 21 2022
https://www.the-sun.com/news/6269942/fo ... a-ukraine/

Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up
Caleb Davis
Wed, September 21, 2022 at 5:13 AM·1 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/flights- ... 52129.html

Putin's NUCLEAR threat to the West: Vladimir warns Ukraine's allies he will use 'weapons of destruction', announces mobilisation of another 300,000 troops and declares 'I am NOT bluffing'
By CHRIS PLEASANCE and WILL STEWART FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 02:07 EDT, 21 September 2022 | UPDATED: 07:45 EDT, 21 September 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ussia.html

SKY ON FIRE Chilling footage shows flesh-melting THERMITE RAIN bombs blitzing Ukraine town as Russia steps up barbaric tactics
Elsa Buchanan
12:09 ET, Sep 20 2022Updated: 10:07 ET, Sep 21 2022
https://www.the-sun.com/news/6263556/fo ... en-ozerne/

Putin cancels much-anticipated Ukraine war speech under mysterious circumstances
ByAbigail O'LearyNews Reporter
21:44, 20 Sep 2022UPDATED21:49, 20 Sep 2022
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... d-28041287

Kremlin’s New Hail Mary Shows Putin Is More Panicked Than Ever
Allison Quinn - Tuesday
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kr ... r-AA1230qP

Russia begins massive war call-up, Ukraine demands 'just punishment'
By Pavel Polityuk and Michelle Nichols
September 22, 2022
4:06 AM EDT
Last Updated an hour ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-09-19/

Serbian President Warns of “Great World Conflict” Within Two Months
by Paul Joseph Watson
September 21st 2022, 4:52 am
https://www.infowars.com/posts/serbian- ... wo-months/

'I am not bluffing': Putin vows to use nuclear weapons if Russia's territory is threatened
By PAUL WITHERS
07:30, Wed, Sep 21, 2022 | UPDATED: 12:04, Wed, Sep 21, 2022
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/16 ... bas-region

The Russians Truly Believe That This Conflict Is An Existential Fight For Survival, And That Makes Nuclear War So Much More Likely
September 21, 2022
http://themostimportantnews.com/archive ... ore-likely

What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine?
Posted on 17 September 2022 by Ron Conte
https://ronconte.com/2022/09/17/what-if ... n-ukraine/

The World is rushing toward another World War
Posted on 20 September 2022 by Ron Conte
https://ronconte.com/2022/09/20/the-wor ... world-war/
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Bob Butler
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Re: Morality Police

Post by Bob Butler »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:31 am
Bob, were the Abolitionists wrong for trying to impose morals on the Southrons, who in general did not care for it?
Do I really have to clarify who is oppressing who?

Let’s start with the US Revolution. The two primary issues were colonial imperialism and noble privilege. The British were attempting to specify who the Americans could trade with and who had political control. This can generally be seen in most colonial relationships. Equality is a good principle. One people not controlling others is another.

In the US Civil war, the two issues were slavery and a struggle between agricultural and industrial influences in the US. In the case of slavery, the slaveowners were suppressing the slaves. In terns of influence, the agricultural landowners were attempting to keep supremacy over those who wished to expand and those pushing the industrial revolution. Obviously, the slaves were the major oppressed group. Racism was in play. Again, Equality is a good principle. One people trying to limit another is problematic. We saw racism again in the next crisis, with assorted master races and oppression of Jews, gypsies and others. The suffragettes and civil rights people can be looked at through this lens too.

Religion can be restricting, especially when one group is dominant In a multiple culture location. The attempt is made for the dominant culture to force their ethics on others. One cannot eat certain foods and at specific times. One must wear certain clothing. Various religions have various rules. They seem natural and right to the believers, less so to those who associate with other belief sets.

All these - colonial imperialism, racism, religion - can at time oppose freedom and equality. In general, the Agricultural Age was a mess, Dominant groups attempted in various ways to force their control on others. The general trend was that the conservative oppressors lost, that progressive freedom and equality would come out ahead.

Now the recent conflict in Iran isn’t my fight, but you can guess which faction is the oppressor and how I would side against them.

FullMoon
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Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

Question:
How 'partial' is the Russian mobilization?
How much does Russia consider itself to be at war with NATO and what's the most probable trajectory of this conflict?

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Russia can defend new regions with nuclear weapons: Medvedev
22 Sep 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/2 ... vedev-says

Russia arrests over 1,300 as anti-war protests erupt over Putin’s partial military call-up
PUBLISHED THU, SEP 22 20223:51 AM EDTUPDATED THU, SEP 22 20223:53 AM EDT
Sam Meredith
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/ukraine ... roops.html

Russia's military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine's counteroffensive, US sources say
By Katie Bo Lillis, CNN
Updated 9:07 AM ET, Thu September 22, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics ... index.html

Victory or nuclear war? Putin backs himself further into a Ukrainian corner
Sept. 22, 2022, 6:17 AM EDT
By Yuliya Talmazan
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nucl ... -rcna48713

EXCLUSIVE: America WILL retaliate with 'a devastating strike' against Russia's Black Sea Fleet or bases in Crimea if Putin follows through on threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, US Army's former European commander warns
By TOM COTTERILL FOR MAILONLINE and CHRIS PLEASANCE FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 06:09 EDT, 21 September 2022 | UPDATED: 11:35 EDT, 21 September 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... neral.html

Xi Tells Armed Forces Focus On Preparing For Wars As Geopolitical Flashpoints Intensify
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 - 10:40 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -intensify

Putin flirts again with grim prospect of nuclear war – this time he might mean it
Pjotr Sauer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ht-mean-it

Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia can't train or support them
Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 8:43 AM ET, Thu September 22, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/r ... ntl-hnk-ml

What Putin’s latest threats mean for the risk of nuclear war
By Jen Kirbyjen.kirby@vox.com Sep 22, 2022, 12:40pm EDT
https://www.vox.com/world/2022/9/22/233 ... eat-expert

Desperation, delusion, and recklessness: The war in Ukraine threatens to go nuclear
Statement of the World Socialist Web Site Editorial Board
12 hours ago
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/0 ... s-s22.html

Voices: Putin has raised the spectre of nuclear war – what if he’s not bluffing?
https://news.yahoo.com/voices-putin-rai ... 22342.html
Cathy Newman
Thu, September 22, 2022 at 5:21 AM·3 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/voices-putin-rai ... 22342.html

Ukraine military chief says ‘limited’ nuclear war cannot be ruled out
By Miriam Berger
September 7, 2022 at 5:04 p.m. EDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ks-crimea/

Will the survival of thousands of millions of people depend on some brave Russians following in the footsteps of Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov and Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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