Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

FishbellykanakaDude:
Actually, I posted the articles for their view of the Fourth Turning.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Alec Baldwin - fuck you. You are an entertainer. Shut your mouth and dance like the monkey you are.

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Tom Mazanec wrote:FishbellykanakaDude:
Actually, I posted the articles for their view of the Fourth Turning.
As I said, "contrast". :)

I do agree with you that he was trying to predict the essentially unpredictable part of the "dynamic picture", which is "the timing", and can therefore be "forgiven" for not having succeeded.

But, he also isn't taking into consideration the "unintended consequences", or the "weird possibilities", that WILL highly modify his expected "apocalyptic scenario".

He writes good speculative fiction, but reality is ALWAYS far stranger than fiction.

What I find most "egregious" is his insistence on the "fault" for the "world wide present situation" being on what is essentially "The Illuminati".

THAT is the single "insistence" (assertion) that, to me, makes his "opinion(s)" complete balderdash.

He is an anxiety-monger whose PRIMARY "goal" is to generate (money for himself by generating) hatred toward his imagined "Illuminati", through the very derivative tactic of hijacking a "partially true" description of human dynamics.

He's a snake-oil salesman. Pure and simple.

:) Aloha to 'ya, dude! <chuckle and shaka nui!>

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Trevor wrote:His reign of terror is over! My reign of terror begins!
Oh,.. Trev....

Image

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:
That also puts into perspective the 1959 Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway show Flower Drum Song.
Not to mention another popular song from that show: I Enjoy Being a Girl.
Image

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:** 14-Jan-2020 World View: Alec Baldwin: Trump supporters responsible for destruction of America

[im g]https://thehill.com/sites/default/files ... 112118.jpg[/img]
  • Donald Trump and Alec Baldwin


... The level of loathing by actor Alec Balwin is so delusional, that
it's still startling. Unfortunately, Baldwin's loathing for Trump
supporters and incitement to hatred and violence is common among
Democrats. ...
Image

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
Guest wrote:
That also puts into perspective the 1959 Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway show Flower Drum Song.
Not to mention another popular song from that show: I Enjoy Being a Girl.
Image
I. CAN. NOT. UNSEE. THIS.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 16-Jan-2020 World View: Financial speed bumps
Higgenbotham wrote: > Say, like Trump, you've been in the real estate business, and you
> recognize it's a bubble and has been for along time. It's logical
> to say, well, it's been a bubble for a long time and the way to
> address it has been to buy the dip and then wait for some
> excesses, trim holdings, wait for the next dip, etc. The practical
> way to be successful in navigating the bubble has been to take on
> debt and assume the general trajectory is onward and upward to
> bigger and bigger bubbles with speed bumps along the road. People
> who have the constitution to operate in that manner are the only
> ones who have amassed fortunes since the 1987 crash (Hendricks
> Holdings, for example) and among that class of people a certain
> groupthink has developed and a level of genius is inappropriately
> attributed to that kind of thinking (another more widely known
> example, the cult of Warren Buffet which would never have existed
> absent the bubble environment since 1987).
I left the false panic of 1987 out of my summary in my last message.

To use your phrase, there have been three "speed bumps" since 1929:
  • The false panic of 1987 = 1929+58. This is related to the
    58-Year Hypothesis in generational theory, which says that 58 years
    after a massive public catastrophe, the last cohort of people with
    personal memory of the catastrophe retires, resulting in a (false)
    panic.
  • The Nasdaq crash of 2000, the last year of Clinton administration.
    This was the collapse of the "tech bubble" brought about by the
    Silents/Boomers who saw that the 1987 panic really wasn't so bad after
    all. In the 1980s, companies like Lotus, Ashton-Tate, IBM, Compaq and
    Microsoft made a lot of money, and the Silents/Boomers wanted to do
    the same with their own companies and made reckless investments. By
    the way, the 1990s bubble was not "caused" by the internet. It was
    "caused" by the false panic of 1987 combined with the PC explosion of
    the 1980s, combined with the retirement of the last people with
    remaining memory of the Great Depression. This is actually another
    illustration of the 58-Year Hypothesis.
  • The subprime crash of 2008, and the collapse of the real estate
    bubble. The "cause" of the real estate bubble was the rise of
    Generation-X, who were furious that they were personally swindled by
    the Silents/Boomers in the Nasdaq crash. This tied into their fury at
    their fathers over the high divorce rate. They decided to get revenge
    by creating tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime
    mortgage backed synthetic securities, and then selling then to their
    fathers' generation to screw them and swindle them. Unfortunately,
    they created millions of bankrupt and homeless families in all
    generations.
Each of those three "speed bumps" was worse than the previous one, but
still not severe enough to require fundamental changes -- in
particular, reduction in public debt, with government debt alone now
well above $20 trillion.

It's been a very, very long time since the last "speed bump," and
investors are assuming that speed bump #4 won't be as bad as #3
because new laws have been passed, and because the Fed has become so
much more clever. It's a major delusional fantasy, We still don't
know when speed bump #4 will occur, but we can be absolutely certain
that it will be much worse than #3.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 16-Jan-2020 World View: More on speed bumps

Something interesting occurred to me after posting my previous message
on speed bumps. If you look at the four speed bumps:
  • #1 occurred at the end of the Reagan administration.
  • #2 occurred at the end of the Clinton administration.
  • #3 occurred at the end of the Bush administration.
  • #4 may occur at thed of the (first term of the)
    Trump administration.
I've always assumed that there was no political connection at all to
the timing of these speed bumps, but maybe there is.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:** 16-Jan-2020 World View: Financial speed bumps

[*] The subprime crash of 2008, and the collapse of the real estate
bubble. The "cause" of the real estate bubble was the rise of
Generation-X, who were furious that they were personally swindled by
the Silents/Boomers in the Nasdaq crash. This tied into their fury at
their fathers over the high divorce rate. They decided to get revenge
by creating tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime
mortgage backed synthetic securities, and then selling then to their
fathers' generation to screw them and swindle them. Unfortunately,
they created millions of bankrupt and homeless families in all
generations.[/list]
Why are you blaming the fathers?

The high divorce rate is the fault of feminism, the fault of women.

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