Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

John wrote: So you're saying that there would be a full-scale war going
on between China vs Kazakhstan, Russia, India and Japan, and
the US and Europe would not get involved?
Yes, that would be what happens after the initial escalation of the war. Although a Later Further Escalation (equivalent to What Barbarossa and Pearl Harbor were in WW2), could force the US and Europe into the war later on Leading to the ultimate defeat of whoever is main the Aggressor state. Remember it was Hitler's decisions made in 1941, not those made in 1939, that doomed Nazi Germany to total defeat.

Fishproxy

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Fishproxy »

...cmputer dwn,.. as is my "O" key, unless I really whack it while hlding the shift key,.. new machine cming shrtly,.. carry n brave sldiers!

Carry n...!

Alha gangies! <shaka nui!>

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Fishproxy wrote:...cmputer dwn,.. as is my "O" key, unless I really whack it while hlding the shift key,.. new machine cming shrtly,.. carry n brave sldiers!

Carry n...!

Alha gangies! <shaka nui!>
Why d0n't y0u use a zer0 instead 0f an 0h?

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

Pro-establishment US government Boomers, If you think that the opinions of Journalists are representative of mainstream american opinion, you guys would be delusional if you think that. The Average American consider most Journalists to be basically pond scum. Globalists and establishment media want America to be against Assad, we the people want to be pro-Assad. Globalist Journalists want us to help the rohingyas and uighers, we the people want to give assurances to the Burmese and Chinese governments that they have a free hand to do as they see fit without having to worry about US intervention. Establishment globalists and Media want continued free trade and an open border, we the people want protectionism/Autarky and a closed border. We Will never change our views on these matters, you globalists and globalist hacks and acolytes. We millennials dream of the day when the Clintons are put in front of a drumhead court-martial (made famous by first half of 20th century Germany and to some extent russia at the same period, and later the Maoist era PRC) and eliminated.

Finance guy

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Finance guy »

John,

I really appreciate your analysis and perspective. I’ve been a reader of your site for quite a while and bought a couple copies of your books. I personally don’t understand all of the vitriol that gets directed at you, but wanted to tell you to keep up the good work.

I also wanted to get your feedback on something I’ve been noticing the last couple of years regarding Boomer v Gen X relations and how millennials are fitting into the picture. I’m a millennial (an older one, born 1981) and was military for 13 years before getting into the finance industry. It seems to me that the Gen X fund managers and finance guys snuck a lot of synthetic derivatives by the boomers and wrote some bad trading algorithms that the boomers didn’t understand (and still usually don’t). The solution I’ve seen the boomers go with is to bring in a millennial to team with because they seem to better understand the technical algorithms and derivatives market while generally being more “service” and “societal” oriented and matching up philosophically more with the boomers then they do with Gen-X or how Gen-X does with the millennials. I’ve even seen this in succession planning where boomers are skipping Gen-Xers to leave their practices and funds to millennials instead.

Didn’t know if this jived with Generational Theory Or was a one off for the finance industry.

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Tom Mazanec
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Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

CH86 wrote:
John wrote:** 28-Aug-2019 World View: China's war in Central Asia
CH86 wrote: > Your STILL evading because A china at war in Central Asian simply
> wouldn't be able to afford to worry about the what the US is
> doing. War there would mean far more than Just a war between China
> and Kazakhstan (cough RUSSIA, Cough INDIA, Cough Russian Nukes,
> Cough Indian nukes, Cough Chinese nukes needing to be prepped
> against the above forces).
In the 1990s, when the World War II survivors were running things, the
US could have stayed out of a war like that, since they knew how to
negotiate and compromise.

Today, over 15 years into a generational Crisis era, Generation-X is
firmly in charge, and Gen-Xers are totally incapable of negotiating or
compromising, which is why we're headed for a World War. Japan has
assets in India and Kazakhstan, and the Chinese, who hate the
Japanese, would attack these, which would draw Japan into the war.
This would quickly escalate and draw in the US.

You've been in the Fourth Turning forum for 15 years, and you still
have no clue what the difference is between an Unraveling era and a
Crisis era.
Sino-Indian war in central asia would trigger intervention at some point. But That intervention wouldn't be from US/NATO. Kazakhstan Is part of Russia's CSTO defense pact, which you've been omitting? The above trigger would lead to Russian Involvement, Not US involvement. This is because those countries have actual interests in the region that they could not afford to just sit there and let china overrun. The US has no such assets there.

Also Post Arab spring, we are LESS interventionist than we were in the 1990s. Especially since Trump was Elected. The current pivot against China, is to keep China was breaking into the western Pacific, NOT to participate in inner Asian affairs.

Finally Gen-X is NOT in charge. Being in pencil pushing desk Jobs and blocked from actual management is not leading things. Management is firmly in Boomer Hands. Trump is a Boomer, Pelosi is a boomer, Schumer is a boomer, McConnell is a boomer, The Security advisors (Bolton and others) are boomers. Its your generation that currently Runs the Country. The same is True in Europe and China. The Only Major country that is currently Run by Xers is Russia (Putin is a boomer, but the rest of his cabinet are Xers).
But Boomers are not survivors of WWII. By definition they were born after the war. Even S&H date the very first ones as two years old on VJ day.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
CH86 wrote:
John wrote:** 28-Aug-2019 World View: China's war in Central Asia



In the 1990s, when the World War II survivors were running things, the
US could have stayed out of a war like that, since they knew how to
negotiate and compromise.

Today, over 15 years into a generational Crisis era, Generation-X is
firmly in charge, and Gen-Xers are totally incapable of negotiating or
compromising, which is why we're headed for a World War. Japan has
assets in India and Kazakhstan, and the Chinese, who hate the
Japanese, would attack these, which would draw Japan into the war.
This would quickly escalate and draw in the US.

You've been in the Fourth Turning forum for 15 years, and you still
have no clue what the difference is between an Unraveling era and a
Crisis era.
Sino-Indian war in central asia would trigger intervention at some point. But That intervention wouldn't be from US/NATO. Kazakhstan Is part of Russia's CSTO defense pact, which you've been omitting? The above trigger would lead to Russian Involvement, Not US involvement. This is because those countries have actual interests in the region that they could not afford to just sit there and let china overrun. The US has no such assets there.

Also Post Arab spring, we are LESS interventionist than we were in the 1990s. Especially since Trump was Elected. The current pivot against China, is to keep China was breaking into the western Pacific, NOT to participate in inner Asian affairs.

Finally Gen-X is NOT in charge. Being in pencil pushing desk Jobs and blocked from actual management is not leading things. Management is firmly in Boomer Hands. Trump is a Boomer, Pelosi is a boomer, Schumer is a boomer, McConnell is a boomer, The Security advisors (Bolton and others) are boomers. Its your generation that currently Runs the Country. The same is True in Europe and China. The Only Major country that is currently Run by Xers is Russia (Putin is a boomer, but the rest of his cabinet are Xers).
But Boomers are not survivors of WWII. By definition they were born after the war. Even S&H date the very first ones as two years old on VJ day.
Why would silent governance be an improvement when they are largely responsible for the current Stasis in government since the late 1980s. How long are we going to continue letting gerontocrats run the country? The problem is that the postwar generations don't have enough influence because cohorts born in the early 1940s and earlier never fully trusted them with government positions.


John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 29-Aug-2019 World View: How low can interest rates go?

One of the big debates today is how low can interest rates go.

So if you purchase a $1000 government bond with a yield (interest
rate) of 2% per year, then after a year the bond will be worth $1020.

But if you purchase a $1000 government bond with a yield of -0.5% per
year, then after a year the bond will be worth %995. In other words,
you have to pay the government to keep your money safe.

Ten years ago, I heard analysts on tv say that interest rates could
never go below zero. That was before interest rates started going
below zero. Many countries today are offering bonds with negative
yields. There are $17 trillion in investors' hands today with
negative yields. Investors had to put their money somewhere, and
rather than put it in the risky stock market, they have a
country central bank keep the money safe, in return for a fee
(defined by the negative yield).

So for example on the German 10 year bund today, the yield
is 0.69%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has been falling sharply
recently, though it's still positive at +1.5% today. A lot of
people believe that it will go negative before long.

Today on Bloomberg tv, an analyst Alberto Gallo of Algebris
Investments was asked the question about much more the German bund
yield could fall.

He said:
There is a boundary around minus 1% where it's bettter
to store cash or gold underground. You can put a billion euros in
a cubic meter of space, and essentially you'll get zero [interest]
rather than paying 70 bp [-0.7% yield]. So there is a physical
limit [to how low interest rates can go]. We're getting
close."

Gold bug

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Gold bug »

So would negative interest rates make gold a good investment now?

Yes, I'm still here.

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