Generational Dynamics World View News

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HK forever

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by HK forever »

John wrote:** 30-Aug-2019 World View: CCP vs Hong Kong protesters on Saturday

According to a Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) on Fox News:

Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on
Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the
protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:
- Arrested some protest leaders
- Declared that Saturday's protest is illegal
- Moved a large number of troops into Shenzhen on Hong Kong's border
- Told people to stay at home on Saturday evening

The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's
protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the
demonstrators

However, this correspondent says that he has just interviewed some of
the extremists ("in an undisclosed location") and they're saying the
following:
- The peaceful protesters will stay at home
- The CCP's actions have energized the extremist protesters
- Extremist protesters will be out on Saturday evening, with
confrontational protests and probably violence

The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on.
There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary
of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the
protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1.

You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent,
and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation
requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month,
in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That
suggests that the deadline for action is pretty much now.
This is the beginning of the end for XI. He persecuted Falun Gong just for the fun of it, and because he could. Now, he's has imperial ambitions to distract the population from the economic problems due to companies leaving China, a world economic slowdown, and tariffs. The Hong Kong protests will spread throughout China and Xi will be replaced.

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

It's the millennials over there doing 100% of the heavy lifting. Over here, they pick their noses.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 01-Sep-2019 World View: Russia Turkey
Guest wrote: > How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the
> Russians? The Russian air defense missile system has derailed
> their relationship with Nato, and despite your predictions, the
> Turks are becoming highly anti-Chinese. The Turks may find
> themselves alone.
Turkey is so centrally located, almost at the center of the
geopolitical world, that there are no simple analyses.

A generational crisis war is a threat to a country's existence and its
way of life. The choice of allies and enemies at such a time is not
an ephemeral political decision, but is based on core values and
relationships that have developed over centuries. The easiest way to
predict a country's choice of allies and enemies is to look at its
choices of allies and enemies over previous crisis wars for centuries.

Now, applying that test to Turkey, if we look back to the last
two crisis wars -- World War I and the Crimean War -- we see that
Turkey has had mixed relations with Nato countries and with Arab
countries, but has always had Russia as an enemy.

Russia and China have been enemies to their core, so they're
going to be enemies. So Russia will be fighting both
Turkey and China.

It's often true that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," but not
entirely. Turkey has had deep historic relations with the Turkic
groups in Central Asia, including the Uighurs in East Turkistan
(China's Xinjiang province). So it's possible that Turkey and China
will cooperate against Russia, but will end up fighting each other in
Central Asia.

Turkey's relation with the Arab world is similarly confusing. The
Ottomans had Arab allies and enemies during the period of its
collapse, and the enmities are becoming exposed again in the last
three years with the vicious split between Saudi Arabia + UAE +
Bahrain + Egypt vs Qatar and Iran, with Turkey siding with Qatar.
There's a lot going on here that requires a deep analysis of Arab
relations for at least a couple of centuries, but I don't have time to
do it.



---- Source:


-- Uighurs / Will Turkey and China Become Friends?
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pol ... me-friends
(WashingtonInstitute, 14-Aug-2019)

---- Related:

** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190831



** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190823



** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151125

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

guest wrote:It's the millennials over there doing 100% of the heavy lifting. Over here, they pick their noses.
Not entirely true. Over here millenials do important things like fighting white supremacy and discussing the importance of gangsta rap, hip hop, and keeping it real (while picking their noses). Ya know what I'm saying?

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

2-Sep-19 World View -- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war

Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components


** 2-Sep-19 World View -- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190902





Contents:
Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006
Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components
Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Émile Geamil Lahoud,
Sabra, Shatila, 58-year hypothesis

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Hong- ... protesters

Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters
Chinese state media blasts West for attempting to 'kidnap' the city

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Hong- ... protesters

Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters
Chinese state media blasts West for attempting to 'kidnap' the city
The commentary said three lines must not be crossed: no one should harm Chinese sovereignty, challenge the power of the central authorities or use Hong Kong to infiltrate and undermine the mainland.

"Anyone who dares to infringe upon these bottom lines and interfere in or damage the 'one country, two systems' principle will face nothing but failure," the piece declared. "They should never misjudge the determination and ability of the central government... to safeguard the nation's sovereignty, security and core interests.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-Sep-2019 World View: Xinhua Hong Kong 'threat"
Guest wrote: > https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Hong- ... protesters

> Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters. Chinese
> state media blasts West for attempting to 'kidnap' the
> city
> The commentary said three lines must not be crossed: no one
> should harm Chinese sovereignty, challenge the power of the
> central authorities or use Hong Kong to infiltrate and undermine
> the mainland.

> "Anyone who dares to infringe upon these bottom lines and
> interfere in or damage the 'one country, two systems' principle
> will face nothing but failure," the piece declared. "They should
> never misjudge the determination and ability of the central
> government... to safeguard the nation's sovereignty, security and
> core interests.
Reading through the article quoting Xinhua, it looks like BS to me.

First, the three "red lines" are completely meaningless, or mean
whatever the CCP wants them to mean on any given day. It looks like
the article author was ordered to include some "red lines," and just
used some boilerplate that popped into his head.

Second, the warnings contain no threats whatsoever. It reminds me of
when the UN Security Council says that some behavior is
"unacceptable," and, if the behavior continues, threatens to hold
another Security Council meeting.

The article looks like desperation to me. The CCP have no idea what
to do. As stupid as CCP officials are, even they can see that there
is no path that wins, and lots of paths that lose.

On the other hand, you can't overestimate the stupidity of the CCP, so
anything could happen.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 02-Sep-2019 World View: Carrie Lam's anguish in Hong Kong

As I wrote a month ago, I saw Carrie Lam give a press conference,
almost in tears, saying "this is very dangerous for Hong Kong, the
city we love, the city we built."

On Monday, Carrie Lam was addressing a group of businesspeople in Hong
Kong, and her anguish has clearly turned to anger, mostly at herself
at having failed Hong Kong and its people (and also probably at the
CCP, for forcing her into this situation).

She expressed deep regret by trying to pass the extradition bill that
triggered the protests:
"This is not something instructed, coerced by the
central government. ... This has proven to be very unwise given
the circumstances. And this huge degree of fear and anxiety
amongst people of Hong Kong vis-à-vis the mainland of China, which
we were not sensitive enough to feel and grasp. ...

For a chief executive to have caused this huge havoc to Hong Kong
is unforgivable. ...

If I have a choice, the first thing is to quit, having made a deep
apology."
Lam was confirming unconfirmed reports that she had wante to resign
weeks early, but had been blocked from doing so by the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing. Her personal bitterness with her
remarks about how the crisis has affected her daily life:
"Nowadays it is extremely difficult for me to go out.
I have not been on the streets, not in shopping malls, can’t go to
a hair salon. I can’t do anything because my whereabouts will be
spread around social media.

[If I were to appear in public] you could expect a big crowd of
black T-shirts and black-masked young people waiting for
me."
Lam says that Beijing is running out of options, but said Beijing had
not yet imposed any deadline for ending the crisis ahead of National
Day celebrations scheduled for October 1. And she said China had
“absolutely no plan” to deploy army troops on Hong Kong streets, as
happened in the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

Beijing is scheduled to hold a press conference on Hong Kong on
Tuesday at 3 am ET (3 pm in Hong Kong). I intend to be sound asleep
at that time, so if anyone else is awake, feel free to post a report
on the press conference.


---- Source:

-- Special Report: Hong Kong leader says she would 'quit' if she
could, fears her ability to resolve crisis now 'very limited'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hong ... SKCN1VN1DU
(Reuters, 2-Sep-2019)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Hi John,

Did you buy a barcode for your book when you bought the ISBN? Or did Amazon assign you the barcode?

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