Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

I'm skeptical of most international organizations but I think NATO is one of the few worthwhile. Being in it hasn't cost the US all that much since we were going to spend the money anyways. It has been the main source of external security for Western and now almost all of Europe. There is little chance of war happening in Europe precisely because of NATO. Many of our allies may not be of much use, but deterrence has been invaluable.

If America is bogged down in a race war, how is it going to deploy troops in Europe? You didn't think about that, did you? And since you are running away to the Philippines, you should shut up.

[Guest]

The number of Supermarkets will plummet. Urban centers, where delivery is dangerous, will keep large big box stores (if there are investors willing to risk capital), but online grocery stores will grow and serve local communities. Also, smaller grocer stores will pop up to serve smaller communities. The economy will go local.

Last Saturday Amazon sent messages to all of its delivery drivers to "stop immediately and return home" in areas affected by looting and violent protests. Amazon has also shutdown all of its hubs in urban areas. Deliveries will no longer be made in areas affected by looting and violence. Which means urban dwellers in LA, NYC, SF, Chicago and other urban centers will no longer receive Amazon products until "the violence in those areas has ended". Yeah. Sure. Meet the new normal.

Now the supposed down trodden can complain they have to drive 200 miles to buy a loaf of bread because there are no local supermarkets (because locals burned them down) and that Amazon doesn't deliver because it's racist. That's like someone who murders both of his parents in cold blood and then wants sympathy because "He is an orphan."

Look at what happened to the FedEx driver. That will be avoided in the future. Which means no deliveries in minority populated areas.

How many insurance companies are going to be willing to insure businesses in black and Latino neighborhoods? Most likely, none.

I know black Americans who think they are about to take over America. They're not. They are going to inherit the wind.

[Guest]

I'm seeing a straight-down-to-the-depths-of-hell shaped recovery.

[Vasilievich]

I'm in my 80s. I've been places and learned a bit. Seeing what is happening to the country I love is heart breaking. And while I will probably vote for Mr. Trump for lack of an alternative I wish he would actually take charge.

[Xeraphim1]

I'm skeptical of most international organizations but I think NATO is one of the few worthwhile. Being in it hasn't cost the US all that much since we were going to spend the money anyways. It has been the main source of external security for Western and now almost all of Europe. There is little chance of war happening in Europe precisely because of NATO. Many of our allies may not be of much use, but deterrence has been invaluable.

If America is bogged down in a race war, how is it going to deploy troops in Europe? You didn't think about that, did you? And since you are running away to the Philippines, you should shut up.

Well, "guest", we already have troops in Europe. We're not going to have a race war in the US because despite the efforts of Big News to make it seem like there's a problem, there really isn't. Check out the protests where more than half the people are whites in their 20's. Our combat forces are still available for use.

We're not running away but going to be closer to my wife's family. She gave up a lot to come to the US so my turn is coming up. As to shutting up, come make me coward.

[mooreupp]

I'm wondering if the civil war vs. united front for China vs. US is somewhat inverse from how we tended to picture. Think of this for a minute.

There will be civil unrest in China, but it is also the ascending power as the United States was during World Ware II. It might be easier for them to play on nationalism and a positive future throughout the country than it would have been in the past which might minimize regional elements which would otherwise be at each others throats.

In the US, 2 of the 3 crisis wars since the founding of the country have been civil wars to one degree or the other. The Revolution wasn't just against the British, but against loyalist whom considered themselves British (not a small number either). As we move deeper and deeper into the crisis period here, there seems to be more organically occurring divisions among racial/ethnic/political lines. I can tell you first hand the hatred felt between the political outlooks is more and more extreme. I expect this to magnify rather than diminish in economic distress (and we are barely getting warmed up).

Hopefully I'm wrong, but does that make sense?

[John]

** 02-Jun-2020 World View: Civil war

> I'm wondering if the civil war vs. united front for China vs. US
> is somewhat inverse from how we tended to picture. Think of this
> for a minute.

> There will be civil unrest in China, but it is also the ascending
> power as the United States was during World Ware II. It might be
> easier for them to play on nationalism and a positive future
> throughout the country than it would have been in the past which
> might minimize regional elements which would otherwise be at each
> others throats.

> In the US, 2 of the 3 crisis wars since the founding of the
> country have been civil wars to one degree or the other. The
> Revolution wasn't just against the British, but against loyalist
> whom considered themselves British (not a small number either). As
> we move deeper and deeper into the crisis period here, there seems
> to be more organically occurring divisions among
> racial/ethnic/political lines. I can tell you first hand the
> hatred felt between the political outlooks is more and more
> extreme. I expect this to magnify rather than diminish in
> economic distress (and we are barely getting warmed up).

> Hopefully I'm wrong, but does that make sense?

During the Revolutionary war, it was the British army vs the Colonial
army. During the Civil War, it was the Northern army vs the Southern
army. Today, there are no such armies.

China's previous crisis wars, the Taiping Rebellion and the Communist
Revolution, were both organic wars.

[mooreupp]

** 02-Jun-2020 World View: Civil war

> I'm wondering if the civil war vs. united front for China vs. US
> is somewhat inverse from how we tended to picture. Think of this
> for a minute.

> There will be civil unrest in China, but it is also the ascending
> power as the United States was during World Ware II. It might be
> easier for them to play on nationalism and a positive future
> throughout the country than it would have been in the past which
> might minimize regional elements which would otherwise be at each
> others throats.

> In the US, 2 of the 3 crisis wars since the founding of the
> country have been civil wars to one degree or the other. The
> Revolution wasn't just against the British, but against loyalist
> whom considered themselves British (not a small number either). As
> we move deeper and deeper into the crisis period here, there seems
> to be more organically occurring divisions among
> racial/ethnic/political lines. I can tell you first hand the
> hatred felt between the political outlooks is more and more
> extreme. I expect this to magnify rather than diminish in
> economic distress (and we are barely getting warmed up).

> Hopefully I'm wrong, but does that make sense?

During the Revolutionary war, it was the British army vs the Colonial
army. During the Civil War, it was the Northern army vs the Southern
army. Today, there are no such armies.

China's previous crisis wars, the Taiping Rebellion and the Communist
Revolution, were both organic wars.

Fair enough. I just can't help but look around the country anymore and be scared we look a little too like other countries we've seen erupt into neighbor vs. neighbor fighting. You factor in an economic collapse and I see the recipe in place for things to get very very ugly.

Some of this makes me wonder about the importance of timing of events. If we'd had a crisis war on the early edge of when it was possible, it certainly would have been a major external war. Potentially delaying a depression (as they managed to do in 2008) and likely an eventual crisis war, may have been the worst thing that could have happened.

[John]

** 02-Jun-2020 World View: Race Riot Crisis and Coronavirus Crisis

> Fair enough. I just can't help but look around the country
> anymore and be scared we look a little too like other countries
> we've seen erupt into neighbor vs. neighbor fighting. You factor
> in an economic collapse and I see the recipe in place for things
> to get very very ugly.

> Some of this makes me wonder about the importance of timing of
> events. If we'd had a crisis war on the early edge of when it was
> possible, it certainly would have been a major external
> war. Potentially delaying a depression (as they managed to do in
> 2008) and likely an eventual crisis war, may have been the worst
> thing that could have happened.

People who are predicting a huge uprising or a civil war either
have an agenda or are being too caught up in the moment. The chances
are the the riot crisis will be mostly over within a month.
At the end of this year, when reporters do retrospectives, I would
expect China, coronavirus, and the economy to be considered more
important stories than the race riots.

However, the Race Riot Crisis has had an interesting effect on
the Coronavirus Crisis. As usual, the common core of all media
reports has been to blame Trump. So before last week, the media
were blaming Trump for calling for the end of lockdowns too early,
thus putting people's health in danger.

However, that's all changed with the Race Riot Crisis. As usual, the
media are blaming the race riots on Trump, but it's quickly becoming
more acceptable to end the lockdowns, for three reasons. First, time
has passed, and some lockdowns were going to end anyway. Secondly,
it's become clear that the lockdowns are hitting minority-owned
businesses the hardest, and many businesses that were expected to
reopen soon are now destroyed by the race riots, and this has hurt
blacks and other minorities the worst. And third, if mass protests
are going on, then certainly other activities can also go on, and
a lockdown doesn't make sense.

However, there may be a new surge in coronavirus cases in the next
couple of weeks as a result of the riots and the easing of the lockdowns.

The race riots have had another consequence. The Chinese are really
gloating about the riots, and are claiming that the Americans are
hypocrites for criticizing the CCP policies in Hong Kong, claiming
that American policies in dealing with riots are the same.

Of greater concern is the fear that China may use the American race
riots to justify military action in Hong Kong or Taiwan.

[mooreupp]

It's not really the immediate effects of the riots that concern me, but the widening fault lines in general. I agree they will most likely simmer down in the not so distant future. The issue to me is that I think the fault lines are a lot greater than they were prior our last crisis period. There were major divides then for sure, but I think there was still considerably more social cohesion than you would find in America (or much the West) today.

Looking at an economic collapse, I am having a hard time seeing how things don't get quite violent and how we don't see a break down into sides very quickly. At this point, if government money stops flowing places (it will have no choice but to if we have a government bond market collapse) or we get hyperinflation to prevent that (in which case the money flowing is basically worthless anyway), then we are going to get a lot worse riots. They may not break down fully on racial/ethnic lines, but I think there is a very significant risk they devolve into that before we get too far.

I hope I am wrong (oddly WW3 is the better alternative), but I think it would fit.

As for COVID, I do agree it helps Trump on that. Heck, I think the riots kind of do too. COVID was not what it was made out to be, but now Trump can blame an economy turning south on it. For the riots, he'll receive nothing but criticism, but they will make people nervous enough for a few to vote for him.