Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:52 pm

Guest wrote:> Hi John, Did you buy a barcode for your book when you bought the
> ISBN? Or did Amazon assign you the barcode?


You supply the ISBN (or let Amazon give you a free ISBN), and
either way, they provide the barcode.

John
Posts: 8644
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:53 pm

** 03-Sep-2019 World View: Young people rioting in Hong Kong
Warren Dew wrote:> China apparently announced that they were ready to intervene
> militarily. There was some mention, I'm not sure on whose part,
> that the Hong Kong basic law permitted Hong Kong to request
> emergency help from China. I'm not sure whether that means they
> would wait for Lam to ask for the military, or whether they were
> saying they might just go in and quash the protests.

> In the photos I have seen, all the protesters at this point are
> young people. To me, this looks more like a 2T protest than a 4T
> protest. John, is there any precedent for 4T crises to look like
> that in the early stages?


I've always thought of rioting as a "young man's game," but you make a
good point that the Hong Kong protesters seem exceptionally young, as
if it were a second turning Awakening era, like America in the 1960s,
or like the recent anti-government riots in Iran.

I think that it can be thought of as an Awakening era following the
Hong Kong handover in 1997. If we think of the handover as a kind of
"crisis climax," then the first turning Recovery era was spent by
everyone trying to adjust to the Beijing government. Now the
generation of kids growing up after the handover are coming of age and
making themselves heard as in every Awakening era, as in America in
the 1960s.

We've seen from the 58-year Hypothesis that we can have several
"turning timelines" going on at once. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic
led to the 1976 Swine Flu false panic. The 1929 global financial
panic led to the 1987 false financial panic. The 1945 nuking of
Hiroshima led to the 2003 WMD panic and the Iraq war, and the start of
the fourth turning. All of these timelines are going on
simultaneously.

So the interesting question is whether all of these 58-year timelines
have identifiable turnings. Let's take the 2018 Spanish Flu pandemic
as an example. I'm just guessing here, but during the first turning
Recovery era, which would run through the 1920s, I assume that
government agencies and medical organizations would be taking steps to
prevent a new pandemic. But would there also be something
corresponding a second turning Awakening era? There were all sorts of
left-wing riots and violence during the 1930s, but were any of them
motivated by anti-government protests that they weren't being
sufficiently protected from the flu? I don't know, but it would be an
interesting thing for a college student to investigate for his thesis.

So anyway we have an Awakening-type era going on in Hong Kong today,
22 years after the handover, and young people are protesting.

There's another reason for young people in Hong Kong to panic. They
know that the "one country, two systems" agreement expires in 2047,
well within the lifetimes of Hong Kong's young people, and then they
will lose all their special rights and just become fully subject to
the CCP bashing. That would be enough to make anyone panic.

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby guest » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:18 am

Hi John. Who do you think is winning the trade war?

Mohammed El-Arian says Trump is winning, but the MSM says America is dying "because of Trump's tariffs".

What is your opinion?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:10 am

Hong Kong leader formally withdraws controversial extradition bill
--Reuters

http://news.trust.org/item/20190904094108-908ip

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:40 pm

** 04-Sep-2019 World View: Hong Kong's secondary cycle
Warren Dew wrote:> Okay, so there's a climax in 1997 for Hong Kong, but it was
> peaceful because it happened in an unraveling instead of in a
> crisis era. To the younger generation, that makes no difference,
> because they don't remember whether climaxes are peaceful or not.

> So the younger generation is rebelling against the "high"
> following 1997; they're tired of the mainland rule and want full
> democracy. I could see that.

> And they aren't being coopted by the previous generation of
> idealists, because the cycle was disrupted in 1997?

> What I'm trying to figure out is whether these protests fizzle or
> precipitate a crisis. If Beijing steps in militarily, do they
> successfully suppress it the way authoritarian governments seem to
> be able to suppress awakening rebellions? Or does it set off a
> full scale revolt, in which southern China would
> participate?


Jumping ahead to the final answer, the Hong Kong protests are kids
having fun, with no desire for war or a violent coup. If there's a
full-scale revolt, it will come from southern China, perhaps triggered
by the Hong Kong protests. However, even if that doesn't happen, the
Hong Kong protests won't fizzle.

For example America's anti Vietnam war protests in the 1960s-70s
continued for 15 years. So the Hong Kong protests won't just fizzle,
but could continue for many years, unless the CCP stops them by force.

However, there's an important distinction. America's anti Vietnam war
protests could reach a natural climax -- Nixon resigns and the war
ends.

But there's no similar climax possible for the Hong Kong protests.
Even if Carrie Lam steps down, it wouldn't make any difference. The
problem is that is each one of those kids protesting in Hong Kong is
thinking something like, "How can I get married and have kids and a
family, if I'm dooming my children and grandchildren to be completely
trapped by the CCP dictators in 2047? How can I bring kids into the
world under those conditions?"

This is undoubtedly a major anxiety for many Hong Kong kids, and the
anxiety will just get worse and worse as each year goes by. So
there's really no hope that the protests will ever just fizzle.

Today's announcement by Carrie Lam of the formal withdrawal of the
extradition bill, after refusing to do so for months, is a major
humiliation for the CCP, and a major victory for the protesters. This
will energize the pro-democracy protesters in both Hong Kong and
Taiwan.

Returning now to the core theory, they're not co-opting the war cycle,
but they're coexisting with it. If you think of the Spanish Flu
example, it didn't have any effect on World War II, and yet the 1976
Swine Flu panic still occurred after 58 years, and so both cycles
coexisted. The war cycle might be thought of as a "dominant cycle,"
while the Spanish Flu cycle is a "secondary cycle."

The Spanish Flu example is a one-time event, and a more interesting
example is 1929 crash, which led to a false panic in 1987.

Global financial crises seem to have their own repeating cycles. The
bubble grows through massive creation of money through securitization
of debt, and the bubble collapses when things like margin calls cause
a chain of bankruptcies. The major major debt bubbles are:

* How money is "created": Securitization of debt
* Tulipomania - 1637 - Tulip future shares
* South Sea Bubble - 1721 - South Sea shares
* Bankruptcy of French Monarchy - 1789 - 'assignats'
* Panic of 1857 - Railway Shares
* Panic of 1929 - Foreign bonds and stock shares

This is a repeating set of cycles which is secondary to the war cycle.
One might picture it as follows:

Image
    Two sine waves with the same frequency and amplitude but
    different phases. The blue wave represents the war cycle, which is
    dominant, and the red wave represents the financial crisis cycle,
    which is the secondary cycle


As the above diagram suggests, the global financial crisis cycle and
the war cycle operate independently. One does not cancel the other,
but the war cycle is dominant (for a given country) and the global
financial crisis is secondary. There is a difference between the two
cycles, not really conveyed by the above diagram. By the Principle of
Localization, there are multiple war cycles, one for each country or
society, and countries like Iran, Syria, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam
and others have different war cycles from the West. However, the
global financial crisis is mostly universal.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:45 pm

By the Principle of Localization, there are multiple war cycles, one for each country or
society, and countries like Iran, Syria, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam
and others have different war cycles from the West. However, the
global financial crisis is mostly universal.


Yeah, but now we are living in a 'globalized world', so wouldn't that affect the war cycles? Wouldn't they start to converge?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:14 am

** 05-Sep-2019 World View: Winning the trade war?

guest wrote:> Hi John. Who do you think is winning the trade war?

> Mohammed El-Arian says Trump is winning, but the MSM says America
> is dying "because of Trump's tariffs".

> What is your opinion?


What does "winning" mean? Here's what we know: China won't give up
cheating and extortion at trade, and stealing intellectual property.
Trump won't agree to a trade deal unless China gives up those things.
There's no chance that either side will back down.

China is now planning for a new US president in 2020, so that things
will return to "normal" -- i.e., China could continue cheating and
extortion at trade, and stealing intellectual property with impunity,
since the new president will just go along, like Obama, Bush, Clinton,
and Bush. However, most Democrats (like Chuck Shumer) have encouraged
Trump, and I doubt that a different president could say, "OK, China,
go ahead with cheating, extorting and stealing. It's fine with me."

So China and the US are at a total impasse that can only be resolved
by war.

So who's winning the trade war?

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:16 am

** 05-Sep-2019 World View: Merging timelines

> By the Principle of Localization, there are multiple war cycles,
> one for each country or society, and countries like Iran, Syria,
> Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and others have different war cycles
> from the West. However, the global financial crisis is mostly
> universal.


Guest wrote:> Yeah, but now we are living in a 'globalized world', so wouldn't
> that affect the war cycles? Wouldn't they start to
> converge?


You're right. Particularly in the last century, most countries merged
into what I call the "World War I timeline" and the "World War II
timeline." However there are variations even within those two large
groupings. The five countries that I listed above all had their
generational crisis wars in the 70s and 80s, so they're on a different
timeline from most other countries.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:19 pm

John wrote:
Guest wrote:> Hi John, Did you buy a barcode for your book when you bought the
> ISBN? Or did Amazon assign you the barcode?


You supply the ISBN (or let Amazon give you a free ISBN), and
either way, they provide the barcode.

I bought the ISBN codes. Do I have to download a cover when I register the ISBN with my book title with Bowders?

Thank you, John. I appreciate your help.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:24 am

A few comments on the current situation:

1) Tension with Iran that could threaten Middle East oil exports
The US no longer imports oil from overseas, US production is 12.5 Million barrels oil per day. If there is an oil shock the Far East will feel the brunt, China will feel it the most and then China can reign in Iran! If China doesn't reign in Iran, China can have riots in China!

2) Europeans and China are chronically telling the USA to not interfere with 'other nations.
LET THEM PROTECT THEIR OWN OIL SHIPMENTS! Let them PAY FOR IT!

3) Tariffs are a counterproductive bad idea.
Stop funding a nuclear enemy that is chronically threatening the United States & sea lanes of ALL of South East Asia. The Chinese, "We won't militarize those islands" Lies. Read 'Unrestricted Warfare'

Removing ALL US trade with China, take away 6% of the economy, add a 1.5% multiplier effect, shove them into a depression (after having printed $21 Trillion in debt since 2008/09), shut down their banks and stop their military build up.

The Chinese at the 2001 WTO agreement, financial transparency, and no subsidization of industries.
MORE LIES!

Stop enabling Europe and China with military and economic subsidization, respectively.

As for Germany, their only concern is their 8 to 12 weeks of annual vacation!


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