Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Tom Mazanec » Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:26 am

SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

John
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9-Dec-19 World View -- Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration

Postby John » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:10 am

9-Dec-19 World View -- Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration


Protesters renew their 'five demands, not one less' chants

** 9-Dec-19 World View -- Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191209.htm#e191209





Contents:
Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration
Protesters renew their 'five demands, not one less' chants
The CCP fights the democracy 'ideology' with the Patriotic Education Campaign


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, five demands,
extradition bill, democracy ideology, Carrie Lam,
Tiananmen Square massacre, Soviet Union collapse,
Patriotic Education Campaign, Taiwan,

Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Trevor » Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:44 am

Sometimes I wonder what's holding China back from attacking us. They're currently capable of pushing us out of the South and East China Sea. Whether they could hold the line against our current capabilities. . . not sure. I know not everything is public knowledge.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:55 pm

** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Start of World War III

Trevor wrote:> Sometimes I wonder what's holding China back from attacking
> us. They're currently capable of pushing us out of the South and
> East China Sea. Whether they could hold the line against our
> current capabilities. . . not sure. I know not everything is
> public knowledge.


I think you're contemplating a Pearl Harbor style attack. I know you
have my book on war between China and Japan, and in the chapters on
theory of war, I describe how world wars start -- usually with some
trivial military clash that escalates. The massive attacks come
later. The attack on Pearl Harbor came four years after war had
already begun between Japan and China.

Right now, the populations of many countries have become extremely
nationalistic and xenophobic. This is in contrast to the 1990s, when
the WW II survivors were running things. At that time, a minor
military clash would fizzle quickly, while today it would be much more
likely to escalate.

So I expect WW III to begin with some small confrontation that
escalates, with nuclear weapons not used until months or years later.
This could happen, for example, in Kashmir, the South China Sea, or
the Mideast.

The most interesting example of such a possible confrontation would be
a clash between Chinese and Japanese assets in Central Asia. Since no
one in the West pays any attention to Central Asia, such a
confrontation could escalate to a small war, and the West would be so
consumed with Brexit and impeachment that they wouldn't even know it
was happening. This would be an example of a scenario that could lead
to WW III, as both China and Japan bring in reinforcements and have a
small war for several months. At that point, China might decide to
end the war once and for all by a nuclear attack on Japan, warning the
US not to interfere. Within a few more days or weeks, China might
attack the US -- and this would be the analog to the Pearl Harbor
attack.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Xeraphim1 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:42 pm

John wrote:** 07-Dec-2019 World View: China - North Korea vassal relationship

However, China cannot punish North Korea too severely. If, as you
suggest, China tries to starve North Korea, the result could be a
massive refugee flow from North Korea, across the Yalu River, into
northeast China, which would be an economic disaster for China.


Or the alternative in which the DPRK collapses and South Korea takes over the North putting an American allied state on China's border.

Of course, a South Korea which didn't need to worry about the Kims would also have much less need for the US likely leading to departure of US forces from the peninsula. That might be a better outcome for the CCP but good luck getting them to see it. Probably more worried about the first option.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Xeraphim1 » Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:51 pm

John wrote:** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Start of World War III

The most interesting example of such a possible confrontation would be
a clash between Chinese and Japanese assets in Central Asia. Since no
one in the West pays any attention to Central Asia, such a
confrontation could escalate to a small war, and the West would be so
consumed with Brexit and impeachment that they wouldn't even know it
was happening. This would be an example of a scenario that could lead
to WW III, as both China and Japan bring in reinforcements and have a
small war for several months. At that point, China might decide to
end the war once and for all by a nuclear attack on Japan, warning the
US not to interfere. Within a few more days or weeks, China might
attack the US -- and this would be the analog to the Pearl Harbor
attack.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.


I don't think Japan would risk war with China over Central Asia. Too much risk for too little reward and Japan has been very low risk in foreign policy over the past 70 years and Japan has little ability to project force outside it's immediate neighborhood. They might go to war over the Senkaku Islands but I doubt anything further away.

Considering the number of US forces in Japan and the fact that the US and Japan share many bases, any Chinese attack on Japan would kill American forces. The US would not be able to stay out of the conflict even if it wanted to. That is the ultimate brake on Chinese ambitions that doesn't exist in the South China Sea. The Philippines would have been wise to not listen to the leftists in kicking the US out of Subic Bay and Clarke. China would have thought twice or thrice about steeling territory with a major US base just a couple hundred km away.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:55 pm

** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Japan vs China in Central Asia

Xeraphim1 wrote:> I don't think Japan would risk war with China over Central
> Asia. Too much risk for too little reward and Japan has been very
> low risk in foreign policy over the past 70 years and Japan has
> little ability to project force outside it's immediate
> neighborhood. They might go to war over the Senkaku Islands but I
> doubt anything further away.

> Considering the number of US forces in Japan and the fact that the
> US and Japan share many bases, any Chinese attack on Japan would
> kill American forces. The US would not be able to stay out of the
> conflict even if it wanted to. That is the ultimate brake on
> Chinese ambitions that doesn't exist in the South China Sea. The
> Philippines would have been wise to not listen to the leftists in
> kicking the US out of Subic Bay and Clarke. China would have
> thought twice or thrice about steeling territory with a major US
> base just a couple hundred km away.



The problem with arguments like this is that they're too logical in a
generational Crisis era. If Japan came to the aid of Japanese
businesses in Central Asia, then they wouldn't do a risk-reward
analysis.

Let's take an example. Japan Tobacco International (JTI) claims to be
the leading tobacco company in Kazakhstan, with offices, a factory,
and hundreds of employees in the country.

There are also Chinese enclaves in Kazakhstan. Let's suppose that a
Chinese and a Japanese got into a fistfight in Kazakhstan. Suppose
that the Chinese community violently attacked a JTI office in
retaliation. (This kind of things happens frequently in China). JTI
asks for protection, and Japan sends a few security personnel. China
counters with a few army personnel. There's some local fighting
between the Japanese and Chinese forces.

There's a temporary truce, but both sides bring in more soldiers. A
month later there's a new clash. Both sides send in more forces. The
clashes spread to other Japanese businesses and Chinese businesses.
The escalation continues.

This is how these wars start. No one makes a conscious, reasoned
decision to start a war. This is how WW I started, this is how WW II
started. In recent times, this is how Israel's 2006 invasion of
Lebanon started, although that fizzed out because Lebanon was in a
generational Awakening era.

This is all a made-up scenario, but this is how WW III is going to
start. Not with a massive missile attack on the US, but with some
minor clash that grows over a period of months, and finally explodes.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:09 am

Let's take an example. Japan Tobacco International (JTI) claims to be
the leading tobacco company in Kazakhstan, with offices, a factory,
and hundreds of employees in the country.

There are also Chinese enclaves in Kazakhstan. Let's suppose that a
Chinese and a Japanese got into a fistfight in Kazakhstan. Suppose
that the Chinese community violently attacked a JTI office in
retaliation. (This kind of things happens frequently in China). JTI
asks for protection, and Japan sends a few security personnel. China
counters with a few army personnel. There's some local fighting
between the Japanese and Chinese forces.

This is all a made-up scenario, but this is how WW III is going to
start. Not with a massive missile attack on the US, but with some
minor clash that grows over a period of months, and finally explodes.


Kazakhstan is not Liberia. I can't see the government (a dictatorship) there allowing Japanese security personnel into the country. I can't believe they would ever allow a situation like that to occur. The Kazakhs hate the Chinese. They like the Japanese for many reasons: the Japanese don't plan to invade, the Chinese do; the Japanese are honest businessmen; the Chinese are notorious cheats, thieves, and lairs, the Japanese don't let their children pee in public water fountains, change their baby's diapers on the subway and city buses and leave the soiled diapers behind, and eat Ramen noodles on the floor on subway cars. Also, the Japanese know how to use Western toilets and don't destroy public restrooms.

Ah, yeah. The Kazakhs would protect the Japanese from the Mainlanders any day of thew week. Who would rather have over for dinner?

John
Posts: 8900
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:39 am

** 10-Dec-2019 World View: Uzbekistan vs Kazakhstan

Guest wrote:> Kazakhstan is not Liberia. I can't see the government (a
> dictatorship) there allowing Japanese security personnel into the
> country. I can't believe they would ever allow a situation like
> that to occur. The Kazakhs hate the Chinese. They like the
> Japanese for many reasons: the Japanese don't plan to invade, the
> Chinese do; the Japanese are honest businessmen; the Chinese are
> notorious cheats, thieves, and lairs, the Japanese don't let their
> children pee in public water fountains, change their baby's
> diapers on the subway and city buses and leave the soiled diapers
> behind, and eat Ramen noodles on the floor on subway cars. Also,
> the Japanese know how to use Western toilets and don't destroy
> public restrooms.

> Ah, yeah. The Kazakhs would protect the Japanese from the
> Mainlanders any day of thew week. Who would rather have over for
> dinner?


What about Uzbekistan? I've read that the Uzbeks are less civilized
than the Kazakhs.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:07 am

John wrote:** 10-Dec-2019 World View: Uzbekistan vs Kazakhstan

Guest wrote:> Kazakhstan is not Liberia. I can't see the government (a
> dictatorship) there allowing Japanese security personnel into the
> country. I can't believe they would ever allow a situation like
> that to occur. The Kazakhs hate the Chinese. They like the
> Japanese for many reasons: the Japanese don't plan to invade, the
> Chinese do; the Japanese are honest businessmen; the Chinese are
> notorious cheats, thieves, and lairs, the Japanese don't let their
> children pee in public water fountains, change their baby's
> diapers on the subway and city buses and leave the soiled diapers
> behind, and eat Ramen noodles on the floor on subway cars. Also,
> the Japanese know how to use Western toilets and don't destroy
> public restrooms.

> Ah, yeah. The Kazakhs would protect the Japanese from the
> Mainlanders any day of thew week. Who would rather have over for
> dinner?


What about Uzbekistan? I've read that the Uzbeks are less civilized
than the Kazakhs.

Even barbarians appreciate politeness. The mainlanders offend even the barbaric. Neanderthals would have done less damage to public latrines than the mainland Chinese.


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