Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:26 am
China loses Mandate of Heaven
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... _kong.html
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... _kong.html
Generational theory, international history and current events
http://www.gdxforum.com/forum/
I think you're contemplating a Pearl Harbor style attack. I know youTrevor wrote: > Sometimes I wonder what's holding China back from attacking
> us. They're currently capable of pushing us out of the South and
> East China Sea. Whether they could hold the line against our
> current capabilities. . . not sure. I know not everything is
> public knowledge.
Or the alternative in which the DPRK collapses and South Korea takes over the North putting an American allied state on China's border.John wrote:** 07-Dec-2019 World View: China - North Korea vassal relationship
However, China cannot punish North Korea too severely. If, as you
suggest, China tries to starve North Korea, the result could be a
massive refugee flow from North Korea, across the Yalu River, into
northeast China, which would be an economic disaster for China.
I don't think Japan would risk war with China over Central Asia. Too much risk for too little reward and Japan has been very low risk in foreign policy over the past 70 years and Japan has little ability to project force outside it's immediate neighborhood. They might go to war over the Senkaku Islands but I doubt anything further away.John wrote:** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Start of World War III
The most interesting example of such a possible confrontation would be
a clash between Chinese and Japanese assets in Central Asia. Since no
one in the West pays any attention to Central Asia, such a
confrontation could escalate to a small war, and the West would be so
consumed with Brexit and impeachment that they wouldn't even know it
was happening. This would be an example of a scenario that could lead
to WW III, as both China and Japan bring in reinforcements and have a
small war for several months. At that point, China might decide to
end the war once and for all by a nuclear attack on Japan, warning the
US not to interfere. Within a few more days or weeks, China might
attack the US -- and this would be the analog to the Pearl Harbor
attack.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Xeraphim1 wrote: > I don't think Japan would risk war with China over Central
> Asia. Too much risk for too little reward and Japan has been very
> low risk in foreign policy over the past 70 years and Japan has
> little ability to project force outside it's immediate
> neighborhood. They might go to war over the Senkaku Islands but I
> doubt anything further away.
> Considering the number of US forces in Japan and the fact that the
> US and Japan share many bases, any Chinese attack on Japan would
> kill American forces. The US would not be able to stay out of the
> conflict even if it wanted to. That is the ultimate brake on
> Chinese ambitions that doesn't exist in the South China Sea. The
> Philippines would have been wise to not listen to the leftists in
> kicking the US out of Subic Bay and Clarke. China would have
> thought twice or thrice about steeling territory with a major US
> base just a couple hundred km away.
Let's take an example. Japan Tobacco International (JTI) claims to be
the leading tobacco company in Kazakhstan, with offices, a factory,
and hundreds of employees in the country.
There are also Chinese enclaves in Kazakhstan. Let's suppose that a
Chinese and a Japanese got into a fistfight in Kazakhstan. Suppose
that the Chinese community violently attacked a JTI office in
retaliation. (This kind of things happens frequently in China). JTI
asks for protection, and Japan sends a few security personnel. China
counters with a few army personnel. There's some local fighting
between the Japanese and Chinese forces.
This is all a made-up scenario, but this is how WW III is going to
start. Not with a massive missile attack on the US, but with some
minor clash that grows over a period of months, and finally explodes.
What about Uzbekistan? I've read that the Uzbeks are less civilizedGuest wrote: > Kazakhstan is not Liberia. I can't see the government (a
> dictatorship) there allowing Japanese security personnel into the
> country. I can't believe they would ever allow a situation like
> that to occur. The Kazakhs hate the Chinese. They like the
> Japanese for many reasons: the Japanese don't plan to invade, the
> Chinese do; the Japanese are honest businessmen; the Chinese are
> notorious cheats, thieves, and lairs, the Japanese don't let their
> children pee in public water fountains, change their baby's
> diapers on the subway and city buses and leave the soiled diapers
> behind, and eat Ramen noodles on the floor on subway cars. Also,
> the Japanese know how to use Western toilets and don't destroy
> public restrooms.
> Ah, yeah. The Kazakhs would protect the Japanese from the
> Mainlanders any day of thew week. Who would rather have over for
> dinner?
Even barbarians appreciate politeness. The mainlanders offend even the barbaric. Neanderthals would have done less damage to public latrines than the mainland Chinese.John wrote:** 10-Dec-2019 World View: Uzbekistan vs Kazakhstan
What about Uzbekistan? I've read that the Uzbeks are less civilizedGuest wrote: > Kazakhstan is not Liberia. I can't see the government (a
> dictatorship) there allowing Japanese security personnel into the
> country. I can't believe they would ever allow a situation like
> that to occur. The Kazakhs hate the Chinese. They like the
> Japanese for many reasons: the Japanese don't plan to invade, the
> Chinese do; the Japanese are honest businessmen; the Chinese are
> notorious cheats, thieves, and lairs, the Japanese don't let their
> children pee in public water fountains, change their baby's
> diapers on the subway and city buses and leave the soiled diapers
> behind, and eat Ramen noodles on the floor on subway cars. Also,
> the Japanese know how to use Western toilets and don't destroy
> public restrooms.
> Ah, yeah. The Kazakhs would protect the Japanese from the
> Mainlanders any day of thew week. Who would rather have over for
> dinner?
than the Kazakhs.