Navigator wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 7:14 pm
> Right now, there is just a lot of rhetoric. And like the saying
> goes "talk is cheap". Nothing of note is going to happen until we
> see preparations begin to take place. I will shortly describe
> what I think the Chinese plan would be for an actual invasion of
> Taiwan, and how it would start to execute those plans.
> The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at the map in
> the previous post. This shows the locations of airfields in
> Taiwan territory.
> Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are
> Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is
> too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan,
> but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).
> Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and
> Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in
> the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on
> the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port
> facilities.
> In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy
> occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along
> the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the
> invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.
> In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:
> 1. Secure Kinmen
> 2. Secure Penghu (with its airfield and port facilities much
> closer to Taiwan than those in Mainland China)
> 3. Secure beachheads on Taiwan, with the immediate objectives
> including a good airfield (much better to fly in Reinforcements
> than ship by sea).
> To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around
> Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the
> Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.
> Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although
> the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP
> invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese
> could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted
> to, could interfere.
> With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen.
> Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu
> county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a
> major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.
> The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese
> landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough
> force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do
> so. This of course would mean war with the USA.
> Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my
> opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more
> likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half
> away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is
> not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.
> The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion
> of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity.
> The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying
> troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.
> By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare
> for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a
> good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least
> in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources
> (ammunition).
> The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but
> this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a
> quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first.
> But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu
> islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.
> Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the
> western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain
> becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily
> defensible.