Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:22 am
I can start drawing on my retirement in eight years.
Do you think your pension will still be around? Really? :roll:
There is no possibility of conquering a country of 106 million people where Chinese are disliked and there are lots of guns.
Are you really this delusional? :shock:
Who has a pension these days other than government workers? Even without social security I'll have enough. Start funding your 401(k) early.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:22 am
There is no possibility of conquering a country of 106 million people where Chinese are disliked and there are lots of guns.
Are you really this delusional? :shock:
It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear war in which case China would have other problems.

You need to actually think about the things you're spouting.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 04-Jun-2020 World View: Chinese occupation
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:39 am
> It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to
> hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese
> forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even
> have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an
> occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not
> just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless
> all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear
> war in which case China would have other problems.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:39 am
Guest wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:22 am
There is no possibility of conquering a country of 106 million people where Chinese are disliked and there are lots of guns.
Are you really this delusional? :shock:
It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear war in which case China would have other problems.

You need to actually think about the things you're spouting.
The Filipinos gave up food security decades ago to build apartment blocks and shopping malls. I have been to the Philippines. The Chinese could starve them dead in a weeks easily. Also water shortages and untreated illness would kill them quickly.

How many Filipinos are going to take to the hills? Do you really think the average person there can live off the land? The Chinese could burn most of the cities and occupy the rest. Wait while the population dies off. They will definitely keep the young women for their own men. China is running out of them. After all, Mars needs women. You have no idea how horrible this war will be. You really don't.

You're the one spouting off with the Rambo fantasies, not me.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Who has a pension these days other than government workers? Even without social security I'll have enough. Start funding your 401(k) early.
Do 401ks still function in The Dark Ages?

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

John wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:46 am
** 04-Jun-2020 World View: Chinese occupation
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:39 am
> It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to
> hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese
> forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even
> have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an
> occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not
> just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless
> all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear
> war in which case China would have other problems.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?
Taiwan is a possibility because for the CCP it's a face saving exercise. They be willing to burn the island down to the ground if that's what it takes and accept the international consequences. Even then it wouldn't be easy to actually invade. That's one of the reasons China has been building amphibious assault ships lately but even those have limitations. Mostly they's need to use transports which would take a few hours to cross the straits each way and need a port to unload in.

Japan is a different story. It's military is the strongest in Asia and the best equipped and Japan is much further away. Those transports would be sitting ducks until Japan's navy and air force were neutralized. While China's military is getting better rapidly, it isn't that good.

Amphibious warfare is hard. The US has the best doctrines and training of any country and even the US would be very hard pressed to carry out an invasion these days.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:00 pm
John wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:46 am
** 04-Jun-2020 World View: Chinese occupation
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:39 am
> It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to
> hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese
> forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even
> have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an
> occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not
> just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless
> all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear
> war in which case China would have other problems.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?
Taiwan is a possibility because for the CCP it's a face saving exercise. They be willing to burn the island down to the ground if that's what it takes and accept the international consequences. Even then it wouldn't be easy to actually invade. That's one of the reasons China has been building amphibious assault ships lately but even those have limitations. Mostly they's need to use transports which would take a few hours to cross the straits each way and need a port to unload in.

Japan is a different story. It's military is the strongest in Asia and the best equipped and Japan is much further away. Those transports would be sitting ducks until Japan's navy and air force were neutralized. While China's military is getting better rapidly, it isn't that good.

Amphibious warfare is hard. The US has the best doctrines and training of any country and even the US would be very hard pressed to carry out an invasion these days.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?
I think John was asking about occupying a country, not invading it. The US had little trouble invading Iraq and Afghanistan; occupation has been hell for the US and everyone else there.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:06 am

The Filipinos gave up food security decades ago to build apartment blocks and shopping malls. I have been to the Philippines. The Chinese could starve them dead in a weeks easily. Also water shortages and untreated illness would kill them quickly.

How many Filipinos are going to take to the hills? Do you really think the average person there can live off the land? The Chinese could burn most of the cities and occupy the rest. Wait while the population dies off. They will definitely keep the young women for their own men. China is running out of them. After all, Mars needs women. You have no idea how horrible this war will be. You really don't.

You're the one spouting off with the Rambo fantasies, not me.
The two have nothing to do with each other. It's isn't as though they're competing for the same resources. China is actually worse off since much of it's farm land is declining in quantity due to building while quality is dropping due to pollution of both land and water. That's without mention persistent disease. China lost more than half it's hogs due to a swine flu outbreak. Over the past decade it's had to cull tens of millions of poultry due to avian flu. And let's not mention how the younger generations expect to have meat in their diet.

How are all those Chinese soldiers going to get to the Philippines? Walk? They need to be brought by ship to a port which will be at least a day's sail each way plus loading and unloading. While the Philippine military is currently ineffective outside it's own borders, it is also improving and has a defense treaty with the US. A couple of submarines in the South China Sea would drastically reduce the ability of China to run any kind of operations. But lets say China can move a couple of brigades to the Philippines, how will they be supplied? Looting the populace? No modern military does that because it disperses soldiers and makes them vulnerable. Did I mention all the guns in the Philippines? That means supplies have to be brought. By ship. While being hunted from air and sea.

More to the point, WHY would China ever invade the Philippines? What gain would they get out of it? The Chinese government isn't stupid and the costs of such an invasion would be much higher than anything they loot out of it. Taiwan could be a possibility due to the importance the CCP has put on it for 70 years. The Philippines? Nope.

You're the one spinning fantasies without having anything to base them on. A country doing something economically, strategically and logistically stupid. And the reason given is... because.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:21 pm

I think John was asking about occupying a country, not invading it. The US had little trouble invading Iraq and Afghanistan; occupation has been hell for the US and everyone else there.
To occupy it you have to get there first. The US spent months moving forces to adjacent countries from which it could attack by land. Even supplying was expensive and that was with the ability to unload in secure ports. And the US has better doctrine and experience in this than any other country. China? They'd be making it up as they went because they have no institutional knowledge of how to do it.

People keep failing to look at the logistics.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:57 pm
Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:21 pm

I think John was asking about occupying a country, not invading it. The US had little trouble invading Iraq and Afghanistan; occupation has been hell for the US and everyone else there.
To occupy it you have to get there first. The US spent months moving forces to adjacent countries from which it could attack by land. Even supplying was expensive and that was with the ability to unload in secure ports. And the US has better doctrine and experience in this than any other country. China? They'd be making it up as they went because they have no institutional knowledge of how to do it.

People keep failing to look at the logistics.

No, a couple of submarines would not be enough to neutralize the Chinese navy. The war might start in The Philippines, which means America could help. But what if this was going on when the Chinese were attacking Taiwan and Japan? I don't know how much of a priority the mouth of Manila would be.

What if they decided to drop a small nuclear bomb on Manila? I think the current admin would surrender.

The way you talk, China is the biggest paper tiger on the face of the earth. While the current Chinese military does lack combat experience, they are fast learners. You are grossly underestimating the Chinese. I think you keep failing to see that sheer numbers and a willingness to lose tens of millions of soldiers is what China does best.

Enjoy your retirement...

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