Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

"US rejects nearly all Chinese claims in South China Sea"

https://apnews.com/07dc9cff9d42047cfcf28799112eb59d

Sends US Warship on FONOP:

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-nav ... ims-there/

15-Jul-20 World View -- China, Iran draft 25-year $400 billion trade and military agreement

Iran's Chabahar Port deal with India is at risk


** 15-Jul-20 World View -- China, Iran draft 25-year $400 billion trade and military agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200715



Contents:
China, Iran draft 25-year $400 billion trade and military agreement
Iran's history with the 'capitulatory system'
Iran's Chabahar Port deal with India is at risk


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iran, China, Javad Zarif, Miao Lu,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, capitulatory system,
Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution,
Mahmood Ahmadinejad, Reza Pahlavi,
India, Chabahar Port, Chabahar-Zahedan railway,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota port, Kenya, Mombasa port

I'm not finding much more information for confirmation, but these are rather interesting articles. One from 7/13 and one from today.

Taiwan defensive war games
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... a-invasion

China offensive war games
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1624 ... n-invasion

Interesting timing, especially with what's happening in South China Sea at the moment.

I'm currently in Seoul, but the rest of my family lives in Taipei. So this is it? What are the chances? 50-50?

** 16-Jul-2020 World View: CCP invasion of Taiwan

Guest wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:28 am

> I'm currently in Seoul, but the rest of my family lives in
> Taipei. So this is it? What are the chances? 50-50?

The chances are 100%, but the timing can't be predicted. It might
be several years away, or it might be next week. The CCP thugs
are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, so anything
might happen at any time.

John wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:20 am

** 16-Jul-2020 World View: CCP invasion of Taiwan

Guest wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:28 am

> I'm currently in Seoul, but the rest of my family lives in
> Taipei. So this is it? What are the chances? 50-50?

The chances are 100%, but the timing can't be predicted. It might
be several years away, or it might be next week. The CCP thugs
are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, so anything
might happen at any time.

Thank you, John. I am sincerely grateful to you for your intelligence, integrity, and honesty. I have purchased several copies of your books. With the exception of my own mother, no one else in my family listens.

Right now I believe the CCP actions regarding Taiwan are a combination of posturing and practice.

It is typical protocol for an aggressor to stage "practice" exercises multiple times before actually attacking. This gives the attackers multiple opportunities for realistic training for their troops, while reducing the apprehension of the other side. Eventually the "defender" starts to view the practice exercises as something that the "attacker" does on a regular basis, and they start to drop their guard. It also puts a severe strain on the defender, as they have to call up reserves and do other costly things every time the attacker conducts one of these exercises. (PS - this is one of the reasons the Israelis conduct pre-emptive wars, they could not afford to call up their reservists every time the Arabs massed on the border).

I believe that the CCP will go after Taiwan only when they are also ready to go into South Korea on a moments notice. And I don't see this as realistically happening until the spring. The big warning will be a Chinese buildup along the North Korean border, or, worse yet, movement of Chinese forces into North Korea, potentially as part of an "aid mission".

Also, I would view Seoul as much more vulnerable than Taipei, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near either location when this starts.

17-Jul-20 World View -- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now filling with water, alarming Egypt

Lebanon: A country in free fall

** 17-Jul-20 World View -- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now filling with water, alarming Egypt
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200717




Contents:
News events in Ethiopia, Egypt, Lebanon, Armenia and Azerbaijan
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now filling with water, alarming Egypt
Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
Lebanon: A country in free fall


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan,
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Blue Nile,
Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Apostolic Church,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq

It is nice to have a place where you can get actual news. The media's become such a cesspool that every time I think they can't sink any lower, they find a way to prove me wrong. Helps to know what's actually happening in the world, however frightening the world is becoming.

My income is border poverty line, or I would try to contribute more to you than just buying your books on Kindle.