Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:28 am
** 21-Jan-2021 World View: Millennial Generation
Higgenbotham wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:08 am
> This is probably not accurate.

> I checked The Fourth Turning and it has the Millennial Generation
> starting in 2002 with no end date determined.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Fourth
Turning begins 58 years after the climax of the preceding
crisis war, the Third Turning begins 20 years earlier,
and the Fifth Turning begins 20 years later.

Based on research I've done on Generational Dynamics, the eras
following WW II are as follows:

1st Turning begins in 1945 - Recovery Era
2nd Turning begins in 1963 - Awakening Era
3rd Turning begins in 1983 - Unraveling Era
4th Turning begins in 2003 - Crisis Era
5th Turning begins in 2023 = Fifth Turning

Each age group birth year begins four years earlier,
and so the Millennial generation has birth years 1979-1999.

I would caution that the Awakening-Unraveling border is very fuzzy,
while the other borders ae sharp.
What happens in a 5th turning?

Bob Butler
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Bob Butler »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:28 am
Based on research I've done on Generational Dynamics, the eras
following WW II are as follows:

1st Turning begins in 1945 - Recovery Era
2nd Turning begins in 1963 - Awakening Era
3rd Turning begins in 1983 - Unraveling Era
4th Turning begins in 2003 - Crisis Era
5th Turning begins in 2023 = Fifth Turning

Each age group birth year begins four years earlier, and so the Millennial generation has birth years 1979-1999.

I would caution that the Awakening-Unraveling border is very fuzzy, while the other borders ae sharp.
Most systems I’ve dealt with count the never again phase as part of the crisis. What happened in the crisis heart is generally traumatic, so constitutions are written, amendments made and organizations such as the UN are founded to prevent things from happening again. That might tweak the boundaries a bit.

2023 as a transition looks soon. Crisis wars generally take about four years to resolve. If we were to try to mobilize enough to fight a land war in Asia, it could take that long. A sea war using existing fleets could be shorter, could be faster, could fit. Picture the Falkland war on steroids. A nuke exchange could be fast too.

The current problems might fit. COVID, the associated economic problems, passing civil rights legislation, fixing the election process and reinforcing WHO to fight pandemics better could fit before 2023.

Cool Breeze
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

What's odd is that the generations have many internal exceptions, but yes overall they will be marked by the zeitgeist. Having said that, the "Millenials" get so much press, but it's a joke to consider someone born from 1979 - mid1980s, let's say ... to someone born between 1994-1999. That's 25% of the "group" that has literally zero in common.

I don't find anything past Generation X particularly useful, for that reason.

Oh and by the way, I'll answer it
Is there anyone here who wants to make the argument that the American people would be less
unified after such an attack than they were after 9/11/2001?
It is a matter of fact that they MUST be less unified, because the country is less unified. Period. I find it odd that a smart man like yourself, having seen the Constitution totally eroded (in ways most couldn't even dream of, let alone social changes to boot), would question unity in this manner. Republicans have stabbed their base in the back and aided Democrats, who have done everything in their power to change the economy and social atmosphere towards communism.

And you ask us about unity being a given??? Unreal!

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Jan-2021 World View: Unity
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:44 pm
> It is a matter of fact that they MUST be less unified, because the
> country is less unified. Period. I find it odd that a smart man
> like yourself, having seen the Constitution totally eroded (in
> ways most couldn't even dream of, let alone social changes to
> boot), would question unity in this manner. Republicans have
> stabbed their base in the back and aided Democrats, who have done
> everything in their power to change the economy and social
> atmosphere towards communism.

> And you ask us about unity being a given??? Unreal!
You're absolutely right! This time it's different!

Cool Breeze
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

A second, identical response shows that a counter cannot be made to a thoughtful comment. Thanks for that.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 376
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Silenced S wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:39 pm
What America needs right now is a purge of our government at every level: federal, state and local, along with a purge of the MSM, social media, and Big Tech/Big Pharma. The overwhelming majority of people working in one of those right now, regardless of political affiliation, have sold us out to the CCP and are guilty of high treason, and they all deserve execution.

Death to all Democrats and RINOs. Death to Antifa, BLM, MS-13, etc. Death to the CCP.
While you seem quite death obsessed, I will say that regarding "restoring America" that's pretty much what would have to happen = yeah, it's not gonna happen.

But maybe John's kumbaya unity platform will save us ...

DaKardii
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:28 am
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Fourth
Turning begins 58 years after the climax of the preceding
crisis war, the Third Turning begins 20 years earlier,
and the Fifth Turning begins 20 years later.

Based on research I've done on Generational Dynamics, the eras
following WW II are as follows:

1st Turning begins in 1945 - Recovery Era
2nd Turning begins in 1963 - Awakening Era
3rd Turning begins in 1983 - Unraveling Era
4th Turning begins in 2003 - Crisis Era
5th Turning begins in 2023 = Fifth Turning

Each age group birth year begins four years earlier,
and so the Millennial generation has birth years 1979-1999.

I would caution that the Awakening-Unraveling border is very fuzzy,
while the other borders ae sharp.
What happens if the Fifth Turning period is short?

For example, if we applied this model to the previous saeculum (which began in 1865), we would have a Fifth Turning starting in 1943. At that point, we were already fighting a crisis war (WWII), and were just two years away from its climax. How do we classify this Turning, and the people associated with it (born in 1939 and 1940)?

Another example: if we applied this model to the saeculum before that (which began in either 1781 or 1783, depending on how you define the end of the American Revolution), we have a Fifth Turning beginning in either 1859 or 1861. A Turning that lasts four or six years. How do we classify this Turning, and the people associated with it (born in 1857, 1858, 1859, and 1860; and possibly 1855 and 1856)?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Jan-2021 World View: Short Era
DaKardii wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:24 pm
> What happens if the Fifth Turning period is short?
The Fourth Turning era ends with a generational crisis war. If
there's no such war, then after 20 years there's a Fifth Turning. The
Fifth Turning ends with a generational crisis war.

By the way, an unexpected massive invasion could occur in earlier
eras, and result in a "First Turning Reset," which ends the earlier
era and returns the society to a First Turning Recovery Era -- which
is exactly what happens when a generational crisis war occurs.

The way to understand the generational cycle is to understand how a
generational crisis war, whenever it occurs, launches the cycle. The
crisis war completely traumatizes the population to the extent that
they spend the rest of their lives doing everything they can to
prevent a repeat. Their children rebel against those attempts, and
that what creates the various eras. When the next crisis war occurs,
it starts all over again.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

1453 maked the end of Byaztium. They did not recover--ever. What if America is at its end?

FullMoon
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Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

I've had 5 elderly relatives put on machines when their bodies couldn't function properly. They all thought this time was different, they would be the exception. The technology wasn't advanced enough. Biological necessities still prevailed. Rarely will someone clearly see when they're on their deathbed.

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