WW3 will never happen

[Wonderer]

Why do you guys insist that a full scale war is even possible between nuclear armed powers? Such a thing is not possible.

Ever since the invention of nuclear weapons the doctrine of MAD has held peace between the major world powers.

MAD holds peace under the following conditions:

1. Countries have the ability to deal annihilate each other, regardless of who attacks first

2. Such ability will be used in the event that one country attacks another

3. No country wants to be annihilated


I don't see any possibility that either 1, 2 or 3 will be violated. Yes, you can argue terrorists etc. But terrorists are not a country. If an independent terrorist organization explodes a nuke, that wouldn't spark a war. The country affected will simply eradicate the terrorist organization. Even if Iran fires a nuke through a terrorist organization, then Iran will be annihilated, and that will be the end of the story. The war would not spread to become WW3, since Iran is not even in alliance with any major nuclear powers.


You would have to do better than "the people are in a Crisis era" to convince me that MAD will somehow fail and that somehow all the countries in the world are going to destroy each other for no reason.

[John]

Didn't they say something like that when dynamite was invented?

[John]

Wasn't World War I -- the Great War -- called the War to End All Wars?

[Wonderer]

Didn't they say something like that when dynamite was invented?

A few sticks of dynamite didn't hold the power to destroy all the major industry and infrastructure of a country within 20 minutes notice.

Wasn't World War I -- the Great War -- called the War to End All Wars?

That wasn't true though. The nuke was only invented during WW2.

[John]

As I wrote recently in another thread: The fact that every nuclear
weapon in the world will be used does not mean the "immediate
extinction" of the people. Each nuclear weapon kills people only in
the range of 5-10 miles from the point of impact. (Some people have
disagreed with this, but even if it's 20 miles, that won't change the
point.) I've estimated that the world war will kill some 3 billion
people, leaving 4 billion people to carry on.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 823#p14823

[Wonderer]

As I wrote recently in another thread: The fact that every nuclear
weapon in the world will be used does not mean the "immediate
extinction" of the people. Each nuclear weapon kills people only in
the range of 5-10 miles from the point of impact. (Some people have
disagreed with this, but even if it's 20 miles, that won't change the
point.) I've estimated that the world war will kill some 3 billion
people, leaving 4 billion people to carry on.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 823#p14823

Yes, a nuclear blast only has a kill radius of a few miles. Ecologically speaking, there will not be much effect.

But you fail to understand the critical vulnerability of infrastructure to nuclear attacks. If all the transport systems in the USA, especially the railways, are completely destroyed by nuclear weapons, then food will not reach the cities where the vast majority of the population live. This will lead to massive famine and most Americans will simply starve to death. Even if the USA somehow survives a nuclear attack, at the very minimum it will be demoted to a 3rd world country, with living standards worse than Ethiopia. It's practically the same as being totally annihilated.

[John]

I would agree with you completely if people were rational. But
generational Crisis wars are almost always completely irrational.
Everything that you describe is going to happen, and more.

[gerald]

Didn't they say something like that when dynamite was invented?

A few sticks of dynamite didn't hold the power to destroy all the major industry and infrastructure of a country within 20 minutes notice.

Wasn't World War I -- the Great War -- called the War to End All Wars?

That wasn't true though. The nuke was only invented during WW2.

If one wants to put any credence in some of the ancient writings, planetary wide nuclear war has happened before. Even though both sides knew and had the power to annihilate, but not exterminate the other, -- the war occurred.
This is from the ancient Sumerian " Lost Book of Enki" By the way, we are genetically related to these others from elsewhere who nuked their home planet, so why should we not act as they?

Also, physical evidence

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress. ... eexamined/

Consider these verses from the ancient Mahabharata: …a single projectile charged with all the power of the Universe. An incandescent column of smoke and flame As bright as the thousand suns Rose in all its splendour… a perpendicular explosion with its billowing smoke clouds… …the cloud of smoke rising after its first explosion formed into expanding round circles like the opening of giant parasols… ..it was an unknown weapon, an iron thunderbolt, a gigantic messenger of death, which reduced to ashes The entire race of the Vrishnis and the Andhakas.

It can't happen ? really ? --- Just variations on a theme.

[vincecate]

As I wrote recently in another thread: The fact that every nuclear
weapon in the world will be used does not mean the "immediate
extinction" of the people. Each nuclear weapon kills people only in
the range of 5-10 miles from the point of impact. (Some people have
disagreed with this, but even if it's 20 miles, that won't change the
point.) I've estimated that the world war will kill some 3 billion
people, leaving 4 billion people to carry on.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 823#p14823

I agree that the initial blasts would probably kill less than half the world population even if all nuclear weapons were launched. However, as pointed out in that other thread, after all those bombs go off the infrastructure for oil, gas, trains, ships, roads, is also destroyed. The major ports are at major cities that would be targets. The main roads intersect at cities, so the intersections are all destroyed. Without fuel production the modern world does not work. There will be almost no trucks getting food from farmers to the supermarkets in the cities. People will starve. People will keep dying for a long time after the last nuke has exploded.

[John]

The 3 billion estimate includes deaths from war, famine, disease and starvation.