How Russia loses - based on Putin's - World View

[Reality Check]

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Putin loses if the elections, scheduled for May 2014, take place on time under current constitutional, legal and political conditions on the ground in Ukraine.
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The conditions must change, in a manner acceptable to Russia, before an election, or Russia will lose Ukraine, including the pro-Russian parts.
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Nato is slowly changing the conditions on the ground next to Ukraine.
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Nato is more rapidly changing the conditions in the air space over western and south central Ukraine. Even without entering Ukrainian airspace Nato Air Forces flying over Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the Black Sea represent a credible threat to use force in Ukraine, within seconds, or single digit minutes, of a Nato order to do so. Such an order occurring without warning has to be factored into Russia's war plans in Ukraine.
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Nato air defense war ships ( destroyers and frigates ), in Black Sea waters, near the borders between Romania and Ukraine, and protected by land based air power in Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, could be deployed within weeks, and would pose a credible military threat to Russian aircraft flying between Crimea and the Bessarabian territories in Moldova and Ukraine.
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All these factors force Russia to make a decision soon on the use of force in Ukraine.