North Korea

[The Grey Badger]

What I noticed is that China and Russia were joining the condemnation of North Korea for this. If that's what Jong was counting on,he's out of luck.

[isaac]

Kim Jong Il can not stand the status quo. His country is starving and he is dying and he probably isn't very happy with whoever is next. When people are dying they tend to think of their legacy. His won't be good as it stands now. He needs there to be a war or a significant change in relationship with the international community. It isn't a stable situation.

[John]

Dear Isaac,

> Kim Jong Il can not stand the status quo. His country is starving
> and he is dying and he probably isn't very happy with whoever is
> next. When people are dying they tend to think of their legacy.
> His won't be good as it stands now. He needs there to be a war or
> a significant change in relationship with the international
> community. It isn't a stable situation. ...

> What does it take for N. Korea to go from a 2 to a 3 on you risk
> matrix. Do you think they are simply negotiating for
> international aid? I think this has to do with succession and is
> a very dangerous game.

This is a question that I've been asking myself for a couple of days
now, especially since Pyongyang declared the armistice over. However,
this all appears to be typical posturing by Kim Jong-il.

There are several major interrelated dangers in the DPRK (Democratic
People's Republic of Korea, or North Korea) situation that could
trigger something major:

• A succession crisis, as you suggest. This alone wouldn't be a
  crisis out side of DPRK unless it occurred in conjunction with one of
  the following items. However, Kim seems to have recovered from his
  stroke well enough to be toddling around, so there may not be a
  succession crisis for a long time.
• An attack on Seoul. This would be an example of a pure panic
  play resulting from some chaotic trigger. It would be like the
  1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. In other words, it could happen, but
  there's no "rational" reason behind it, and I know of no way to
  estimate the likelihood of it occurring.
• An internal revolt. This kind of revolt would probably most
  likely start with the army, or with the general population because of
  massive starvation, but once again, some kind of unpredictable
  chaotic trigger would be required.
• A flood of refugees crossing over into China. This is something
  that a number of analysts have commented on, and apparently the
  Chinese army has a contingent on the border in case this happens.
  However, once again, there's the question of what would trigger this.
  Even so, this might just be a war between China and DPRK in which the
  US would not get involved.

So what should I do about the Conflict Risk graphic? All of the
above dangers require some kind of chaotic trigger, and I honestly
have no idea whether there's any greater danger of that today than
there was a week or two ago.

The Conflict Risk graphic is supposed to indicate dangers that are
high-risk in the next six months. It's hard for me to justify moving
North Korea from yellow to red. In fact, I'm tempted to move
Arab/Israeli and Russia/Caucasus from red back down to yellow.

What my gut tells me is that if a major international war is
triggered in the next six months, it will be because of
Kashmir/Pakistan/India or an international financial crisis, with a
flu epidemic becoming extremely dangerous in the fall. (I'll have to
change "Bird Flu" to just "Flu.")

Sincerely,

John

[John]

This just arrived from a web site reader with a ".ch" e-mail address:

> I'd be glad to understand your point of view on the theater done
> by North Korea view through "Generational Dynamics".

> My actual point of view is that it looks like the last crisis
> before the end of the North Korean Regime, only because this kind
> of action is, on my point of view, done for internal reasons.

> The problem, is that we are far away from 1945-1953 and that the
> new generation inside the army could be dangerous (even if this is
> only to save their privileges).

> But North Korea is nothing if China is not with it... so...

> I'd be happy to read your point of view, one of these days.

I wrote an article last year summarizing the Generational Dynamics
view of North Korea:

** North Korea resumes nuclear weapon development amidst generational succession struggle
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 27#e080927

When I do a generational analysis of a country, I read various
newspapers from the country to see what's happening in the country --
important events or changes in public attitudes.

I always emphasize that it's the attitudes and behaviors of the
masses of people that are important, not the attitudes of the
politicians, except insofar as the attitudes of the politicians
reflect the attitudes of the people.

So you can see the problem with the DPRK. The country is completely
invisible to the outside world, except through official statements
from the politicians. So there's no way to do a thorough
generational analysis.

There's one thing that we can say with absolute certainty: There is
going to be a reunification war between South and North Korea.
Such a war will immediately involve China, at the very least dealing
with the Korean refugees crossing their border. It will immediately
involve the US, since we have a mutual defense treaty with South
Korea. And it may quickly spiral into a much larger regional war
involving Japan and Taiwan.

But without more information from within North Korea itself, there's
simply no way to get a feel for how close this war is. It could
start tomorrow if something triggered it, or it might not start for
two years. Without deeper knowledge of what's going on in Korea, we
can't even really make a guess.

Here's one thing that I always keep in mind: A prominent billboard in
Pyongyang in 2003. The right-most frame shows a North Korean spearing
an American with a bayonet.



** Why did China agree to U.N. resolution on North Korea?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 19#e060719

Sincerely,

John

[John]

-- An interesting map



http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0528/p06s01-wosc.html

John

[malleni]

Woooouuuu!!!!

I really like to read sometimes this Anglo-Saxon nonsense.
Especially "predictions"...


And obvious conclusion from those "predictions" is that North Korea IS "a threat to International Community" (another Anglo-Saxon nonsense).

North Korea IS, dear gentleman - under REAL TREAT of the regime of United State of America (!!!) for long time back...
(actually, as any other country on this Globe!)

So if they do not to finish same as Saddam Husein and people of Iraq - destroyed, suffering and plundered of the United State of America - they fell that only nuclear weapon can "help" to ward American most aggressive regime on the Planet from Invasion (or as Anglo-Saxons like to "see" it - to spread "freedom and democracy").

Please, do not be fooled.
Try to find some "friendly" talk from regime you are living in first.
Than, perhaps even "theory" of Generational Dynamic will make more sense...

You can start, for example here:
"...After Iraq, It's Not Just North Korea that Wants a Bomb..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... weapons-us
- There are always enough corrupted idiots in US Congress:
Arizona Congressman Trent Franks is calling for the United States to take tough action against North Korea's nuclear program...
http://www.620ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=1171668
- The North Koreans have DEFINITIVELY reason to feel threatened by the United State of America - (not as Anglo-Saxon nonsense saying vice versa!):
The plan, known as Operations Plan 5030, would reportedly allow provocative actions by US forces before a war started, with the apparent aim of destabilising and topp-ling the regime of Kim Jong-il.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/ ... 39261.html

Normal response is difficult to expect especially of aggressive, corrupt, and falling US regime....
- Russia is taking security measures as a precaution against the possibility tension over North Korea could escalate into nuclear war...
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1088606.html
- North Korea threatened a military response to South Korean participation in a U.S.-led program to seize weapons of mass destruction, and said it will no longer abide by the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
- South Korean and US troops go on higher alert amid Pyongyang's threats of 'a powerful strike' and growing fears of a full-scale war in the peninsula.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96 ... 51020405[b]
- WHO give the US bankrupt and corrupt regime to play World police?[/b]
Ablolutely rightfully and correct the N. Korean authorities announced that - "they will regard any hostile actions against the DPRK, including checkup and inspection of its peaceful vessels, as an unpardonable encroachment on the DPRK's sovereignty and counter them with prompt and strong military strikes," the statement said.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 528a1.html
- Russia does not want to see North Korea isolated, and Moscow believes that the only way to resolve the standoff is through the now-suspended six-nation negotiations
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1010/42/377527.htm


AND besides enormous systematical fraud and very certain bankruptcy - the US regime still going on the same old story:
- Casey said his usual rubric for how long it would take the Army to gear up for a new "conventional" war is about 90 days. That doesn't mean it would take 90 days for the U.S. to effectively fight the North's million-man army...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090528/ap_ ... gon_nkorea

On the other side the "confidence" in US regime "justice" (if it exists in the last couple decades ???) - is definitely disappeared.
- An independent UN human rights investigator has said that the United States is failing to properly investigate alleged war crimes committed by its soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/ar ... 64&ref=rss


So - the long story short:
1. The incredible aggressive and bankrupt US regime is on the end!
2. The only force which remain to protect this regime (Empire) - is army.
3. The regime is in speed to start a "black swan" in order to save itself.
4. All Anglo-Saxon nonsense (including some who believe that they "talking for GD theory") - have simply nothing to do with reality!
5.Situation is very dangerous - but NOT because N. Korea threatened US, but vice versa.

[protagonist]

NK can't even help itself, let alone threaten America. This is totally ridiculous.

[malleni]

NK can't even help itself, let alone threaten America. This is totally ridiculous.

Absolutely agreed.

[Samir]

While North Korea may not pose a great threat to the US, it odes pose a treat to our allies in the region: South Korea and Japan. Isn't the US obligated by treaty to protect them in case of attack?

[John]

While North Korea may not pose a great threat to the US, it odes pose a treat to our allies in the region: South Korea and Japan. Isn't the US obligated by treaty to protect them in case of attack?

Yes.

John