Ukraine Crisis will come to a head - but when ?
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2014 4:23 pm
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Here are five reasonable time tables:
1. When the U.S. and E.U. declare the Geneva peace process dead, and announce crippling sector sanctions on Russia. Russia will then either back down, or Russia will accelerate the invasion and change the facts on the ground, before and, if necessary, after the actual sanctions are imposed. Given how badly both the Obama administration and the E.U. want this problem to fade away, before the next elections in the United States and for the European parliment, this is likely a very low probability, unless the Russians really are ready to surrender, if challenged with strength, and the West somehow knows this.
2. Before the May elections, if the U.S. and E.U. string the peace process along, and try to run out the clock until the scheduled Ukrainian elections in May. Polls indicate a May election would give a strongly pro-Western government in Kiev electoral legitimacy. This also assumes that the Kiev government does not agree to postpone the elections until the originally agreed date in December, before the May elections.
3. When the Kiev government sends sufficient military force into eastern Ukraine ( armed forces that are willing to fight, kill and die for the Kiev government ) and begins to use lethal force to take back buildings from the allies of Russia in eastern Ukraine. Russia may then send in Russian troops to Kiev to disrupt the attacks, and/or, send Russian troops into eastern Ukraine, to defeat the pro-Kiev attacking forces. Russia could claim, correctly, that Kiev violated the signed joint statement in Geneva, where Kiev promised not to use violence.
4. In the summer, when Russia deems the weather, natural gas usage, and other transportation and battle conditions are ideal for a main battle tank dash to Moldova across central Ukraine.
5. In the fall, before the re-scheduled elections in December, when Russia deems the weather, natural gas usage, and other transportation conditions are the best time for the type of invasion, and economic warfare, the Russians elect to conduct.
.
.
.
.
.
Here are five reasonable time tables:
1. When the U.S. and E.U. declare the Geneva peace process dead, and announce crippling sector sanctions on Russia. Russia will then either back down, or Russia will accelerate the invasion and change the facts on the ground, before and, if necessary, after the actual sanctions are imposed. Given how badly both the Obama administration and the E.U. want this problem to fade away, before the next elections in the United States and for the European parliment, this is likely a very low probability, unless the Russians really are ready to surrender, if challenged with strength, and the West somehow knows this.
2. Before the May elections, if the U.S. and E.U. string the peace process along, and try to run out the clock until the scheduled Ukrainian elections in May. Polls indicate a May election would give a strongly pro-Western government in Kiev electoral legitimacy. This also assumes that the Kiev government does not agree to postpone the elections until the originally agreed date in December, before the May elections.
3. When the Kiev government sends sufficient military force into eastern Ukraine ( armed forces that are willing to fight, kill and die for the Kiev government ) and begins to use lethal force to take back buildings from the allies of Russia in eastern Ukraine. Russia may then send in Russian troops to Kiev to disrupt the attacks, and/or, send Russian troops into eastern Ukraine, to defeat the pro-Kiev attacking forces. Russia could claim, correctly, that Kiev violated the signed joint statement in Geneva, where Kiev promised not to use violence.
4. In the summer, when Russia deems the weather, natural gas usage, and other transportation and battle conditions are ideal for a main battle tank dash to Moldova across central Ukraine.
5. In the fall, before the re-scheduled elections in December, when Russia deems the weather, natural gas usage, and other transportation conditions are the best time for the type of invasion, and economic warfare, the Russians elect to conduct.
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