Not a surprise to me, I was aware of declining populations back in the 70's, when I first heard that Germany (West Germany then) had lost population through the early 70's. I got down my mother's almanacs and tracked the populations as reported, and it was true. Germany was shrinking. My mother never threw away a book if she could keep from it, and those old almanacs were invaluable in the days before the Internet.
Now, the potential for shrinkage in world populations has spilled over into the mainstream.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/23/opini ... 15242.html
For as Phillip Longman, a scholar of demographics and economics at the New America Foundation, observes: "Never in history have we had economic prosperity accompanied by depopulation."
And depopulation, like it or not, is just around the corner. That is the central message of a compelling new documentary, "Demographic Winter: The Decline of the Human Family." Longman is one of numerous experts interviewed in the film, which explores the causes and effects of one of what may be the most ominous reality of 21st-century life: the fall in human birth rates almost everywhere in the world.
Human fertility has been dropping for years and is now below replacement levels - the minimum required to prevent depopulation - in scores of countries, including China, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Turkey and all of Europe.
The world's population is still rising, largely because of longer life spans - more people live to old age than in the past. But with far fewer children being born today, there will be far fewer adults bearing children tomorrow. In some countries, the collapse has already begun. Russia, for example, is now losing 700,000 people a year.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00188.html
Nearly one in five American women in her early 40s is childless, according to a report that shows a striking increase in women who don't have biological children.
The trend was much less common in the 1970s, when one in 10 women did not have children by 40 to 44, the age bracket researchers use to designate the end of childbearing years.
The report, released Friday by the Pew Research Center, cites social and cultural shifts behind the change, including less pressure to have children, better contraceptive measures and expanded job opportunities for women.
********
I do disagree with the conclusion that a world with fewer people will be a poorer world, but that is because I do believe the technological singularity is going to utterly reshape the world economy by the time 2040 rolls around. We may well have medical treatments that restore youth, regeneration, and robots that actually do most work for us by that time. By 2070, the world will have undergone changes that will make the previous 20,000 years seem like a prelude. In terms of accumulated knowledge, we'll have tens or hundreds of millions of times the knowledge we had in 1900. Did we have hundreds of millions of times the knowledge of a puppy or even a cockroach then? The vistas opening before us are breathtaking, and most of us will live to see them unfold.
The exploding population meme is breaking.
Population Growth Rates (2010)
Population Growth Rates (2010)
Western countries:
United States 0.97%
United Kingdom 0.28%
France 0.53%
Germany -0.06%
Israel 1.63%
Spain 0.05%
South Africa -0.05%
Japan -0.24%
Other non-Muslim countries:
Russia -0.47%
Vietnam 1.10%
China 0.49%
Thailand 0.60%
India 1.38%
Mongolia 1.50%
Korea, North 0.39%
Korea, South 0.26%
Iran 0.94% (Shia Muslim)
Sunni Muslim (especially Arab) countries:
Indonesia 1.10%
Uzbekistan 0.94%
Turkmenistan 1.14%
Syria 1.95%
Saudi Arabia 1.75%
Iraq 2.45%
Libya 2.12%
Egypt 2.00%
West Bank 2.13%
Gaza Strip 3.29%
Pakistan 1.51%
Kuwait 3.50%
United Arab Emirates 3.56%
Yemen 2.71%
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 2rank.html
Note: For comparison purposes, my rough calculation is that the food
supply has a growth rate of about 0.96%.
John
Western countries:
United States 0.97%
United Kingdom 0.28%
France 0.53%
Germany -0.06%
Israel 1.63%
Spain 0.05%
South Africa -0.05%
Japan -0.24%
Other non-Muslim countries:
Russia -0.47%
Vietnam 1.10%
China 0.49%
Thailand 0.60%
India 1.38%
Mongolia 1.50%
Korea, North 0.39%
Korea, South 0.26%
Iran 0.94% (Shia Muslim)
Sunni Muslim (especially Arab) countries:
Indonesia 1.10%
Uzbekistan 0.94%
Turkmenistan 1.14%
Syria 1.95%
Saudi Arabia 1.75%
Iraq 2.45%
Libya 2.12%
Egypt 2.00%
West Bank 2.13%
Gaza Strip 3.29%
Pakistan 1.51%
Kuwait 3.50%
United Arab Emirates 3.56%
Yemen 2.71%
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 2rank.html
Note: For comparison purposes, my rough calculation is that the food
supply has a growth rate of about 0.96%.
John
Re: The exploding population meme is breaking.
True enough for the moment, but the trend is established. The number of children born in all developed countries is below replacement level, and the same is true of many emerging countries. Those countries that had small or no baby booms after WWII are already declining, those that had large baby booms are still increasing, but very slowly compared to the norms of the last two centuries.
How long this trend will continue, no one knows, of course, the only certain thing about real world trends is they never go to infinity. It does interrupt a trend that has been in place since 1500 or so for populations to always increase - prior to that, plagues and starvation caused some large scale drops in population over time as witness the black death, or the starvation common during the crop failures of the little ice age.
War, plague and the singularity can all change this to cause more rapid declines or to halt it altogether if life is extended greatly.
The growth rates in the Muslim countries are interesting, as they too are much lower than anyone would have predicted in 1960.
I have read, but have not tried to confirm the figures, that without illegal immigration over the last 50 years the US would be in the declines column already. I'm not certain of this, while it's true the early cohort of the baby boom is becoming elderly, it's also true they are living longer.
The ebb and flows of population stocks are fascinating and historically important, and will have great effects on the politics and events to unfold in this century.
Ahh, a bit of supporting data here, on edit.
Countries experiencing a decrease at this time are:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 2rank.html
196 Holy See (Vatican City) 0.00 2010 est.
197 Cocos (Keeling) Islands 0.00 2010 est.
198 Christmas Island 0.00 2010 est.
199 Pitcairn Islands 0.00 2010 est.
200 Tokelau -0.01 2010 est.
201 Svalbard -0.02 2010 est.
202 Niue -0.03 2010 est.
203 South Africa -0.05 2010 est.
204 Poland -0.05 2010 est.
205 Germany -0.06 2010 est.
206 Croatia -0.06 2010 est.
207 Virgin Islands -0.06 2010 est.
208 Moldova -0.07 2010 est.
209 Italy -0.08 2010 est.
210 Trinidad and Tobago -0.09 2010 est.
211 Czech Republic -0.11 2010 est.
212 Slovenia -0.14 2010 est.
213 Romania -0.16 2010 est.
214 Maldives -0.18 2010 est.
215 Monaco -0.18 2010 est.
216 Japan -0.24 2010 est.
217 Hungary -0.26 2010 est.
218 Lithuania -0.28 2010 est.
219 Micronesia, Federated States of -0.28 2010 est.
220 Georgia -0.33 2010 est.
221 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines -0.34 2010 est.
222 Belarus -0.37 2010 est.
223 Russia -0.47 2010 est.
224 Serbia -0.47 2010 est.
225 Guyana -0.55 2010 est.
226 Latvia -0.60 2010 est.
227 Ukraine -0.62 2010 est.
228 Estonia -0.64 2010 est.
229 Bulgaria -0.77 2010 est.
230 Montenegro -0.78 2010 est.
231 Saint Pierre and Miquelon -0.85 2010 est.
232 Cook Islands -3.26 2010 est.
233 Northern Mariana Islands -5.57 2010 est.
Some of which are, of course, rather minor but the CIA included them so I did as well.
Any country with a fertility rate beneath 2.1 will be in decline at some point in the future as 2.1 is required to maintain population.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 7rank.html
There are currently over 100 countries with such a fertility rate:
121 New Zealand 2.09 2010 est.
122 Dominica 2.08 2010 est.
123 Antigua and Barbuda 2.06 2010 est.
124 United States 2.06 2010 est.
125 Azerbaijan 2.03 2010 est.
126 Albania 2.00 2010 est.
127 Tonga 2.00 2010 est.
128 Bahamas, The 2.00 2010 est.
129 Bermuda 1.98 2010 est.
130 France 1.97 2010 est.
131 Netherlands Antilles 1.97 2010 est.
132 Suriname 1.97 2010 est.
133 Sri Lanka 1.96 2010 est.
134 Gibraltar 1.96 2010 est.
135 Korea, North 1.94 2010 est.
136 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.94 2010 est.
137 Costa Rica 1.93 2010 est.
138 Vietnam 1.93 2010 est.
139 Seychelles 1.92 2010 est.
140 Uzbekistan 1.92 2010 est.
141 Chile 1.90 2010 est.
142 Iceland 1.90 2010 est.
143 French Polynesia 1.89 2010 est.
144 Uruguay 1.89 2010 est.
145 Brunei 1.88 2010 est.
146 Cayman Islands 1.88 2010 est.
147 Kazakhstan 1.87 2010 est.
148 Aruba 1.85 2010 est.
149 Ireland 1.85 2010 est.
150 Wallis and Futuna 1.84 2010 est.
151 Maldives 1.83 2010 est.
152 Saint Lucia 1.82 2010 est.
153 Virgin Islands 1.81 2010 est.
154 Mauritius 1.80 2010 est.
155 Saint Kitts and Nevis 1.79 2010 est.
156 Australia 1.78 2010 est.
157 Lebanon 1.78 2010 est.
158 Luxembourg 1.78 2010 est.
159 Norway 1.77 2010 est.
160 Algeria 1.76 2010 est.
161 Anguilla 1.75 2010 est.
162 Denmark 1.74 2010 est.
163 Finland 1.73 2010 est.
164 Palau 1.73 2010 est.
165 Trinidad and Tobago 1.72 2010 est.
166 Tunisia 1.71 2010 est.
167 British Virgin Islands 1.71 2010 est.
168 Iran 1.70 2010 est.
169 Barbados 1.68 2010 est.
170 Sweden 1.67 2010 est.
171 Isle of Man 1.66 2010 est.
172 Netherlands 1.66 2010 est.
173 United Kingdom 1.66 2010 est.
174 Belgium 1.65 2010 est.
175 Puerto Rico 1.65 2010 est.
176 Thailand 1.65 2010 est.
177 Cuba 1.61 2010 est.
178 Canada 1.58 2010 est.
179 Macedonia 1.58 2010 est.
180 Jersey 1.57 2010 est.
181 Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha 1.56 2010 est.
182 China 1.54 2010 est.
183 Liechtenstein 1.53 2010 est.
184 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1.53 2010 est.
185 Malta 1.52 2010 est.
186 Monaco 1.50 2010 est.
187 Portugal 1.50 2010 est.
188 San Marino 1.46 2010 est.
189 Switzerland 1.46 2010 est.
190 Cyprus 1.45 2010 est.
191 Georgia 1.44 2010 est.
192 Estonia 1.43 2010 est.
193 Croatia 1.43 2010 est.
194 Guernsey 1.42 2010 est.
195 Germany 1.42 2010 est.
196 Bulgaria 1.41 2010 est.
197 Russia 1.41 2010 est.
198 Romania 1.40 2010 est.
199 Austria 1.39 2010 est.
200 Serbia 1.39 2010 est.
201 Greece 1.37 2010 est.
202 Armenia 1.36 2010 est.
203 Hungary 1.36 2010 est.
204 Slovakia 1.36 2010 est.
205 Andorra 1.34 2010 est.
206 Italy 1.32 2010 est.
207 Spain 1.32 2010 est.
208 Latvia 1.31 2010 est.
209 Poland 1.29 2010 est.
210 Slovenia 1.29 2010 est.
211 Moldova 1.28 2010 est.
212 Ukraine 1.27 2010 est.
213 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.26 2010 est.
214 Belarus 1.25 2010 est.
215 Czech Republic 1.25 2010 est.
216 Lithuania 1.24 2010 est.
217 Montserrat 1.23 2010 est.
218 Korea, South 1.22 2010 est.
219 Japan 1.20 2010 est.
220 Taiwan 1.15 2010 est.
221 Singapore 1.10 2010 est.
222 Hong Kong 1.04 2010 est.
223 Macau 0.91 2010 est.
Will WWIII cause another baby boom? Will robots take over for many tasks now done by humans? Will education and child care become huge political issues, with a grim determination to wring the last bit of use out of a diminishing human capital?
Wish I knew the answers!
This is all related to the fact that cities don't reproduce their populations, they must recruit from the countryside. As the world is now slightly over 50% urban, the recruitment capability has become restricted.
Many cities in the US are losing population, and some of them might surprise you.
http://www.city-data.com/top2/c507.html
How long this trend will continue, no one knows, of course, the only certain thing about real world trends is they never go to infinity. It does interrupt a trend that has been in place since 1500 or so for populations to always increase - prior to that, plagues and starvation caused some large scale drops in population over time as witness the black death, or the starvation common during the crop failures of the little ice age.
War, plague and the singularity can all change this to cause more rapid declines or to halt it altogether if life is extended greatly.
The growth rates in the Muslim countries are interesting, as they too are much lower than anyone would have predicted in 1960.
I have read, but have not tried to confirm the figures, that without illegal immigration over the last 50 years the US would be in the declines column already. I'm not certain of this, while it's true the early cohort of the baby boom is becoming elderly, it's also true they are living longer.
The ebb and flows of population stocks are fascinating and historically important, and will have great effects on the politics and events to unfold in this century.
Ahh, a bit of supporting data here, on edit.
Countries experiencing a decrease at this time are:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 2rank.html
196 Holy See (Vatican City) 0.00 2010 est.
197 Cocos (Keeling) Islands 0.00 2010 est.
198 Christmas Island 0.00 2010 est.
199 Pitcairn Islands 0.00 2010 est.
200 Tokelau -0.01 2010 est.
201 Svalbard -0.02 2010 est.
202 Niue -0.03 2010 est.
203 South Africa -0.05 2010 est.
204 Poland -0.05 2010 est.
205 Germany -0.06 2010 est.
206 Croatia -0.06 2010 est.
207 Virgin Islands -0.06 2010 est.
208 Moldova -0.07 2010 est.
209 Italy -0.08 2010 est.
210 Trinidad and Tobago -0.09 2010 est.
211 Czech Republic -0.11 2010 est.
212 Slovenia -0.14 2010 est.
213 Romania -0.16 2010 est.
214 Maldives -0.18 2010 est.
215 Monaco -0.18 2010 est.
216 Japan -0.24 2010 est.
217 Hungary -0.26 2010 est.
218 Lithuania -0.28 2010 est.
219 Micronesia, Federated States of -0.28 2010 est.
220 Georgia -0.33 2010 est.
221 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines -0.34 2010 est.
222 Belarus -0.37 2010 est.
223 Russia -0.47 2010 est.
224 Serbia -0.47 2010 est.
225 Guyana -0.55 2010 est.
226 Latvia -0.60 2010 est.
227 Ukraine -0.62 2010 est.
228 Estonia -0.64 2010 est.
229 Bulgaria -0.77 2010 est.
230 Montenegro -0.78 2010 est.
231 Saint Pierre and Miquelon -0.85 2010 est.
232 Cook Islands -3.26 2010 est.
233 Northern Mariana Islands -5.57 2010 est.
Some of which are, of course, rather minor but the CIA included them so I did as well.
Any country with a fertility rate beneath 2.1 will be in decline at some point in the future as 2.1 is required to maintain population.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 7rank.html
There are currently over 100 countries with such a fertility rate:
121 New Zealand 2.09 2010 est.
122 Dominica 2.08 2010 est.
123 Antigua and Barbuda 2.06 2010 est.
124 United States 2.06 2010 est.
125 Azerbaijan 2.03 2010 est.
126 Albania 2.00 2010 est.
127 Tonga 2.00 2010 est.
128 Bahamas, The 2.00 2010 est.
129 Bermuda 1.98 2010 est.
130 France 1.97 2010 est.
131 Netherlands Antilles 1.97 2010 est.
132 Suriname 1.97 2010 est.
133 Sri Lanka 1.96 2010 est.
134 Gibraltar 1.96 2010 est.
135 Korea, North 1.94 2010 est.
136 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.94 2010 est.
137 Costa Rica 1.93 2010 est.
138 Vietnam 1.93 2010 est.
139 Seychelles 1.92 2010 est.
140 Uzbekistan 1.92 2010 est.
141 Chile 1.90 2010 est.
142 Iceland 1.90 2010 est.
143 French Polynesia 1.89 2010 est.
144 Uruguay 1.89 2010 est.
145 Brunei 1.88 2010 est.
146 Cayman Islands 1.88 2010 est.
147 Kazakhstan 1.87 2010 est.
148 Aruba 1.85 2010 est.
149 Ireland 1.85 2010 est.
150 Wallis and Futuna 1.84 2010 est.
151 Maldives 1.83 2010 est.
152 Saint Lucia 1.82 2010 est.
153 Virgin Islands 1.81 2010 est.
154 Mauritius 1.80 2010 est.
155 Saint Kitts and Nevis 1.79 2010 est.
156 Australia 1.78 2010 est.
157 Lebanon 1.78 2010 est.
158 Luxembourg 1.78 2010 est.
159 Norway 1.77 2010 est.
160 Algeria 1.76 2010 est.
161 Anguilla 1.75 2010 est.
162 Denmark 1.74 2010 est.
163 Finland 1.73 2010 est.
164 Palau 1.73 2010 est.
165 Trinidad and Tobago 1.72 2010 est.
166 Tunisia 1.71 2010 est.
167 British Virgin Islands 1.71 2010 est.
168 Iran 1.70 2010 est.
169 Barbados 1.68 2010 est.
170 Sweden 1.67 2010 est.
171 Isle of Man 1.66 2010 est.
172 Netherlands 1.66 2010 est.
173 United Kingdom 1.66 2010 est.
174 Belgium 1.65 2010 est.
175 Puerto Rico 1.65 2010 est.
176 Thailand 1.65 2010 est.
177 Cuba 1.61 2010 est.
178 Canada 1.58 2010 est.
179 Macedonia 1.58 2010 est.
180 Jersey 1.57 2010 est.
181 Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha 1.56 2010 est.
182 China 1.54 2010 est.
183 Liechtenstein 1.53 2010 est.
184 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1.53 2010 est.
185 Malta 1.52 2010 est.
186 Monaco 1.50 2010 est.
187 Portugal 1.50 2010 est.
188 San Marino 1.46 2010 est.
189 Switzerland 1.46 2010 est.
190 Cyprus 1.45 2010 est.
191 Georgia 1.44 2010 est.
192 Estonia 1.43 2010 est.
193 Croatia 1.43 2010 est.
194 Guernsey 1.42 2010 est.
195 Germany 1.42 2010 est.
196 Bulgaria 1.41 2010 est.
197 Russia 1.41 2010 est.
198 Romania 1.40 2010 est.
199 Austria 1.39 2010 est.
200 Serbia 1.39 2010 est.
201 Greece 1.37 2010 est.
202 Armenia 1.36 2010 est.
203 Hungary 1.36 2010 est.
204 Slovakia 1.36 2010 est.
205 Andorra 1.34 2010 est.
206 Italy 1.32 2010 est.
207 Spain 1.32 2010 est.
208 Latvia 1.31 2010 est.
209 Poland 1.29 2010 est.
210 Slovenia 1.29 2010 est.
211 Moldova 1.28 2010 est.
212 Ukraine 1.27 2010 est.
213 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.26 2010 est.
214 Belarus 1.25 2010 est.
215 Czech Republic 1.25 2010 est.
216 Lithuania 1.24 2010 est.
217 Montserrat 1.23 2010 est.
218 Korea, South 1.22 2010 est.
219 Japan 1.20 2010 est.
220 Taiwan 1.15 2010 est.
221 Singapore 1.10 2010 est.
222 Hong Kong 1.04 2010 est.
223 Macau 0.91 2010 est.
Will WWIII cause another baby boom? Will robots take over for many tasks now done by humans? Will education and child care become huge political issues, with a grim determination to wring the last bit of use out of a diminishing human capital?
Wish I knew the answers!
This is all related to the fact that cities don't reproduce their populations, they must recruit from the countryside. As the world is now slightly over 50% urban, the recruitment capability has become restricted.
Many cities in the US are losing population, and some of them might surprise you.
http://www.city-data.com/top2/c507.html
Re: The exploding population meme is breaking.
this educational post will help us in long run. thanks for the post buddy. keep posting and help students like me.
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