Big wars that ALMOST started

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Tom Mazanec
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Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by Tom Mazanec »

http://www.cracked.com/article_20510_5- ... pened.html
How did GD help prevent these wars (if it did)?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Tom Mazanec wrote:http://www.cracked.com/article_20510_5- ... pened.html
How did GD help prevent these wars (if it did)?
"... Meanwhile, the Soviet leaders were totally cool with a throwdown, calmly checking with the bemused Americans if they would be OK with the Soviet Union pre-emptively nuking the shit out of China."

Yoinks! <Chuckle..!!> :)

But seriously, if a TRUE GD Genocidal "mania" (crisis) had been present in any of these situations, then it would have been impossible for war NOT to have broken out.

The real question to ask is, "Why did tempers calm down?" in these situations.

..it was usually one form or another of "fatigue". Fatigue often trumps desperation. And when it doesn't it's called "Going BERSERKER..!" and typically involves "magic mushrooms" or other forms of "chemical courage".

jmm1184
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by jmm1184 »

http://www.cracked.com/article_20510_5- ... pened.html
How did GD help prevent these wars (if it did)?
What's interesting is that the first scenarios involving Russia were both ended by powers that were definitely war weary. In the potential US-Russia standoff, it even says it was the US who backed down, and who wouldn't after expending so much energy in WWII (Russia was also doubly fatigued, having fought both WWI AND the Russian Revolution just thirty years earlier).

Whats interesting is the Russia-China war. Once again, Mao is the one who backed down. It had only been 20 years since the Chinese Revolution and WWII, and Mao and the Chinese were in know mood to being another total war. Russia is interesting since it was in an unraveling period, but I doubt they would have pursued war either.

The potential UK-France war also makes sense as both nations were in awakening eras.

What IS very interesting are the other two scenarios: the possible Mexico-US war, and the US-UK war. I think the Mexico-US war could have gone either way regardless of GD, as Mexico was in a crisis war, while the US was in an unraveling war. The Mexicans ultimately were too busy fighting themselves, and so they wisely declined to expand the war into the US (but I attribute this to randomness, not GD, as expansion into the US was a real possibility).

What always leaves me scratching my head is the US-UK scenario. BOTH countries were in crisis eras/crisis wars. The US of course was just getting started with its crisis war, while England had experienced a regeneracy event with the Indian Rebellion of 1857, and it does not appear to have experienced a crisis war climax at that point in time. This is an event that SHOULD have turned into a war between the US and UK and it baffles me that it did not. Indeed I've always attributed the end of the American Civil War to be England's crisis war climax, even though the England did not directly participate.

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

jmm1184 wrote:...
What always leaves me scratching my head is the US-UK scenario. ... This is an event that SHOULD have turned into a war between the US and UK and it baffles me that it did not.

Indeed I've always attributed the end of the American Civil War to be England's crisis war climax, even though the England did not directly participate.
My guess: The UK "calculated" (?) that the South couldn't win the war,.. even with the help of the UK.

Perhaps the calculation was, "Let's let the two sides battle it out for a while, and then try to take out the 'winner' after they've weakened each other?"

..and then a "good time" to butt in and try to take over, or further weaken, the "winner" never really appeared?

I still favor the "someone was REALLY tired!" reasoning as to why that potential war never occurred. Who was the "someone(s)"? You tell me.


Aloha! :) <shaka!>

John
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by John »

jmm1184 wrote: > What always leaves me scratching my head is the US-UK
> scenario. BOTH countries were in crisis eras/crisis wars. The US
> of course was just getting started with its crisis war, while
> England had experienced a regeneracy event with the Indian
> Rebellion of 1857, and it does not appear to have experienced a
> crisis war climax at that point in time. This is an event that
> SHOULD have turned into a war between the US and UK and it baffles
> me that it did not. Indeed I've always attributed the end of the
> American Civil War to be England's crisis war climax, even though
> the England did not directly participate.
Here's something that I posted in 2009:

As for the question of Britain "syncing up" with the U.S. (i.e.,
having roughly the same generational timeline), Britain and the US
were several decades apart throughout the 1600s, 1700s and 1800s,
until the time of the American Civil War.

We had a discussion about this in the old fourth turning forum. David
Krein pointed out: "The Wars of National Unification from the 1850s to
the 1870s were really global in scope, from Mexico, the United States,
Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina, Japan, China, India, to
Poland, Italy and Germany (and Romania snuck in there without a war
while Hungary got a separate identity from Austria after the 1866 loss
to Prussia)."

These wars of national unification could be considered a kind of
precursor to WW I, since they involved so much of the world,
including the US and Britain. It was at this time that the world's
generational timelines coalesced around two of them, which we now
call the World War I timeline (Russia, Eastern Europe, the Mideast
and others) and the World War II timeline (North America, Western
Europe, India, China, Japan, Australia, and others).

In 2006, I did some research on Britain's involvement in the American
Civil War.

I went to books.google.com , and searched for free books on "history
of england." I ended up reviewing three of them, although the first
had the most comprehensive coverage of the American Civil War, and the
other two basically confirmed the first, although in briefer
form. Here are the main points that I learned from these three books:
  • Just prior to the American Civil War, there was almost a war with
    France caused by panic.
  • England's upper classes favored the South, who were most similar
    to England's upper classes.
  • England's lower classes favored the North, who were most similar
    to England's lower classes.
  • The British government remained officially neutral, though they
    favored the South.
  • The northern blockade of Southern ports, preventing the export of
    cotton, inflicted great hardship on Lancashire's cotton mills, which
    depended on the cotton for work
  • The British government was tempted to break the blockade, but
    decided to stay neutral.

    This was the opposite situation from the Napoleonic wars, where
    England had blockaded Europe's ports, and America began the War or
    1812 to break the blockade.
  • Even Britain's neutrality was resented by Northerners, who felt
    it indirectly supported the South.
  • The South didn't like it much either, since they wanted real help
    from the English.
  • Late in 1861, Northern Captain Wilkes boarded an British ship and
    removed two Confederate envoys. This incident caused Britain to
    start preparing for war against the North. It was averted only
    because the North backed down, freed the envoys, and apologized.
  • The Confederacy purchased a ship, the CSS Alabama, from Britain
    through France as an intermediary, to the embarassment of Britain
    when the ship was launched. Later, an international tribunal awarded
    America damages from Britain for violating neutrality.
This is one of those rare situations when a country prepares for a
crisis war and is all geared up for war, but the triggering event
never occurs, or is aborted. For example, this is what happened with
Switzerland in WW II, which was able to maintain neutrality, although
it was preparing for war with Germany.

John

Trevor
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by Trevor »

How do you have an "aborted" crisis war? I thought that there really wasn't any way to avoid one once all or most of the survivors die off.

Interestingly enough, our civil war could have turned into a much bigger war if Great Britain did get involved. Russia was rather pro-union, as was Prussia. It could have dragged them into the war and it was far from a guarantee that France would join their old enemy.

jmm1184
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by jmm1184 »

These wars of national unification could be considered a kind of
precursor to WW I, since they involved so much of the world,
including the US and Britain. It was at this time that the world's
generational timelines coalesced around two of them, which we now
call the World War I timeline (Russia, Eastern Europe, the Mideast
and others) and the World War II timeline (North America, Western
Europe, India, China, Japan, Australia, and others).
This has always interested me. Most current historians paint the 19th century as one of peace and progress, and will often declare that no major European war was fought between the Napoleonic Wars and WWI :roll: . They conveniently leave out the Crimean War and the Italian and German Wars of Unification (as well as the Spanish Civil Wars that occurred at the time). The period from roughly 1850 to 1871 could be considered a kind of world war, and indeed the American Civil War may be more internationally significant than is commonly believed. Observe these crisis wars:

China: Taiping and related rebellions: 1850-1864 (other rebellions lasted until 1877)
Japan: The Meiji Revolution and Japanese Civil War: 1863-1877
India: The Sepoy Mutiny: 1857-1859 (may have continued on in different locations through the 1860s)
Russia & Ottoman Empire: Crimean War: 1853-1856
Italy: Italian Unification Wars: 1859-1871
Austria & Hungary: German Unification Wars: 1864-1866
Denmark & Scandinavia: German Unification Wars: 1864-1864
Germany & Alpine Countries: German Unification Wars: 1864-1871
Poland: Polish Uprising of 1863: 1863-1864
France & The Low Countries: The Franco-Prussian War: 1870-1871
The British Empire (English-speaking peoples): Sepoy Mutiny, 2nd Opium War, and American Civil War: 1857-1865
USA: 1861-1865
New Zealand & Australia: Maori Land Wars: 1860-1864, coincides with American Civil War
Argentina and Paraguay, possibly Brazil and Uruguay: War of the Triple Alliance: 1864-1870: I doubt this war was a crisis war for Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, but it definitely was a crisis war for Paraguay.

John
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by John »

> These wars of national unification could be considered a kind of
> precursor to WW I, since they involved so much of the world,
> including the US and Britain. It was at this time that the world's
> generational timelines coalesced around two of them, which we now
> call the World War I timeline (Russia, Eastern Europe, the Mideast
> and others) and the World War II timeline (North America, Western
> Europe, India, China, Japan, Australia, and others).
jmm1184 wrote: > This has always interested me. Most current historians paint the
> 19th century as one of peace and progress, and will often declare
> that no major European war was fought between the Napoleonic Wars
> and WWI :roll: . They conveniently leave out the Crimean War and
> the Italian and German Wars of Unification (as well as the Spanish
> Civil Wars that occurred at the time). The period from roughly
> 1850 to 1871 could be considered a kind of world war, and indeed
> the American Civil War may be more internationally significant
> than is commonly believed. Observe these crisis wars:

> China: Taiping and related rebellions: 1850-1864 (other rebellions lasted until 1877)
> Japan: The Meiji Revolution and Japanese Civil War: 1863-1877
> India: The Sepoy Mutiny: 1857-1859 (may have continued on in different locations through the 1860s)
> Russia & Ottoman Empire: Crimean War: 1853-1856
> Italy: Italian Unification Wars: 1859-1871
> Austria & Hungary: German Unification Wars: 1864-1866
> Denmark & Scandinavia: German Unification Wars: 1864-1864
> Germany & Alpine Countries: German Unification Wars: 1864-1871
> Poland: Polish Uprising of 1863: 1863-1864
> France & The Low Countries: The Franco-Prussian War: 1870-1871
> The British Empire (English-speaking peoples): Sepoy Mutiny, 2nd Opium War, and American Civil War: 1857-1865
> USA: 1861-1865
> New Zealand & Australia: Maori Land Wars: 1860-1864, coincides with American Civil War
> Argentina and Paraguay, possibly Brazil and Uruguay: War of the Triple Alliance: 1864-1870: I doubt this war was a crisis war for Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, but it definitely was a crisis war for Paraguay.
That's a great list!
jmm1184 wrote: > War of the Triple Alliance: 1864-1870: I doubt this war was a
> crisis war for Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, but it definitely
> was a crisis war for Paraguay.
I apparently reached exactly this conclusion in 2015.


** 12-Jul-15 World View -- Pope Francis in Paraguay alludes to 1860s War of the Triple Alliance
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150712

jmm1184
Posts: 118
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Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by jmm1184 »

I apparently reached exactly this conclusion in 2015.
That's right! I had forgotten about that.

It also makes sense with some cursory reading I've done today. All the sources Ive consulted, from book to Wikipedia indicate that the war was very unpopular in Argentina, and there were even some rebellions against the government during the war.

If Argentina's crisis war was not The War of the Triple Alliance, then that leaves only one other candidate: The Indian Wars of the 1870s to 1884. Also known as the Conquest of the Desert, it decimated and destroyed all the Indian tribes of Patagonia that had harassed Argentine farmers and ranchers for generations. These wars also coincided with the last of the Argentine civil wars following independence, and Argentina emerged from the war without any Indian tribes that posed a threat and as a centralized nation centered about Buenos Aires.

They also made campaigns against the Indians of the Chaco, which is in the northwest of Argentina, but I have had trouble finding when those wars climaxed, but I suspect for now that it was around the same time as in Patagonia.

Also, thank you for the compliments on the list! :) I should note that Canada and English South Africa should be included within the British Empire.

FishbellykanakaDude
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Big wars that ALMOST started

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Wars of the Many Plains:

Central Asia (mostly Russia):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_c ... ntral_Asia
1839: Failed attack on Khiva
1847-1853: Syr-Darya line
1847-1864: Down the eastern side
1864-1868: Kokand and Bukhara subdued
1873: The conquest of Khiva
1879-1885: Turkmenistan: Geok Tepe, Merv and Panjdeh
1872-1895: The eastern mountains

North America:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Indian_Wars
Arikara War (1823)
Osage Indian War (1837)
Texas–Indian wars (1836–1877)
Comanche Wars (1836–1877)
Antelope Hills expedition (1858)
Comanche Campaign (1867–1875)
Red River War (1874–1875)
Buffalo Hunters' War (1876–1877)
Cayuse War (1847–1855)
Apache Wars (1849–1924)
Jicarilla War (1849–1855)
Chiricahua Wars (1860–1886)
Tonto War (1871–1875)
Victorio's War (1879–1880)
Geronimo's War (1881–1886)
Post 1887 Apache Wars period (1887–1924)
Yuma War (1850–1853)
Ute Wars (1850–1923)
Battle at Fort Utah (1850)
Walker War (1853–1854)
Tintic War (1856)
Black Hawk War (1865–1872)
White River War (1879)
Ute War (1887)
Bluff War (1914–1915)
Bluff Skirmish (1921)
Posey War (1923)
Sioux Wars (1854–1891)
First Sioux War (1854-1856)
Dakota War (1862)
Colorado War (1863–1865)
Powder River War (1865)
Red Cloud's War (1866–1868)
Great Sioux War (1876–1877)
Northern Cheyenne Exodus (1878-1879)
Ghost Dance War (1890–1891)
Rogue River Wars (1855–1856)
Yakima War (1855–1858)
Puget Sound War (1855–1856)
Coeur d'Alene War (1858)
Mohave War (1858–1859)
Navajo Wars (1849–1866)
Paiute War (1860)
Yavapai Wars (1861–1875)
Snake War (1864–1869)
Hualapai War (1865–1870)
Modoc War (1872–1873)
Nez Perce War (1877)
Bannock War (1878)
Crow War (1887)
Bannock Uprising (1895)
Yaqui Uprising (1896)
Battle of Sugar Point (1898)
Crazy Snake Rebellion (1909)
Last Massacre (1911)
Battle of Kelley Creek (1911)
Battle of Bear Valley (1918)

South America:

Chile:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupatio ... can%C3%ADa
Chilean advance to Malleco (1861–62)
Mapuche response and Chilean coastal advance (1863–68)
Second Chilean campaign (April 1868 – March 1869)
Parliaments of Toltén and Ipilco (December 1869 – January 1870)
Declared war (May 1870 – March 1871)
Informal truce (low grade war) (1871–1881)
Chilean advance to Cautín (1881)
Mapuche uprising of 1881
Occupation of peripheral areas (1882–83)

Argentina:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquest_of_the_Desert
Alsina's campaign (1875-77)
Roca's campaign (1878-81ish)
The Final Campaign (1881-83)

There was a worldwide (technology driven) "consolidation" of "flatland" by the "New Nations" during the 19th Century (especially the 30's to the 90's).

These were all GD Crisis wars for the "indigenous". The only "Power" (nation) that can "back out" of a war is a tired (fatigued) large one. Small "Powers" can't, other than simply surrender.

Is a true GD Crisis war actually "back out"-able (for a large power)!?

Yes. But only if the "anxiety" (of imminent destruction) is somehow "disrupted" into some other "non-threatening" emotion.

What emotions would those be? How does a Nation get "shaken/disrupted" into that emotional conversion?

..don't know. You guys figure it out... :)

Aloha nui gangies! <shaka nui loa!>

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