Presidential Election

[Witchiepoo]

I, for one, am glad this thing is over.

Same, though I'm heartbroken that my candidate didn't even win one state.

As for Xer pragmatism ...

I think of Obama as a Boomer, not an Xer. But, even assuming that he is an Xer, remember that Xer pragmatism is only as good (or evil) as the desired goals. Xers putting their skills to use can accomplish great deeds, and they can also accomplish some pretty horrible deeds.

Speaking as an Xer who is often tempted by the Dark Side.

[umoguy]

As always, great insights, interesting ideas, and sane discussion, but if only they were not tainted with end of the world scenarios of WWIII. This is the biggest blow to turning Generational Dynamics into a mainstream anylitical tool. Even if your sure it is coming, just stop talking about it. I've grown up in the millennial generation and trust me I can't picture too many of my former classmates or current friends marching off to war. Also everyone seems to have forgotten about MAD. WWIII would either not be a true all out balls to the wall World War, or each and everyone of us would be way too dead to "pick up and start over in a saner world".

[jgreenhall]

I, for one, am glad this thing is over.

I think of Obama as a Boomer, not an Xer. But, even assuming that he is an Xer, remember that Xer pragmatism is only as good (or evil) as the desired goals. Xers putting their skills to use can accomplish great deeds, and they can also accomplish some pretty horrible deeds.

Speaking as an Xer who is often tempted by the Dark Side.

Oh yes, I know all about the Dark Side. No question that is there and every Xer I know knows it as well. But I guess that is the case for every generation - just different dark sides. Obama *seems* to have a pretty good handle on his dark side and *seems* not only to be focusing on the Xer strengths but deliberately calling them out in those he is calling out. One of the key tasks for the turning of Xers is to move them from private (and private sector) activities into service. From selfish goals based on a distrust of institutions and cynicism about collective action and values in general to a firm commitment that come what may, every ounce of their hard-won ruthless survival instinct will be pitted against the mounting crisis that so manifestly threatens their children.

On Obama, on just straight S&H dating his 1961 birthdate makes him an Xer, but it is his attitudes towards the awakening ("its something I just missed and never understood") that firmly put him in an Xer camp. To be sure, his cusp generation refer to themselves as "generation jones" the ultimate tweeners, but having met him a couple of times and knowing lots of Boomers who know him well, his basic sentiments are Xer (and his kids are just in elementary school- about the same age as mine).

[jgreenhall]

As always, great insights, interesting ideas, and sane discussion, but if only they were not tainted with end of the world scenarios of WWIII.

Agreed. First, *nothing* is inevitable (not even the heat death of the Universe). Second, even if WWIII is probabilistically very likely, the whole point and value of something like GD is to provide us with an understanding of the dynamics in a way that will allow us to avert it, dilute it, shorten it or at least minimize its impact. Things like understanding how the failure of Artists and Nomads to hold-back runaway Prophets in 1860 led to a crash-crisis that failed to generate a Hero type. Or how the specific dynamics of Nazi Germany led to a different organization of the 1930's crisis in Deutschland than the one we settled on in the USofA.

Indeed, it was Generations (the S&H books) that led me to support Obama so aggressively. Why? Because while one would hope that McCain's artist type would establish itself, he seemed hell-bent on playing the part of a Boomer with typical unraveling rhetoric (and the Palin selection indicated that he was strongly controlled by Boomers) whereas Obama was almost following the script for a "good" Nomad. Using rhetoric of coming together, pragmatically moving the discussion away from abortion, gay rights, gun control (recall his Convention speech), reaching out to and organizing Heroes, etc.

The evidence is mounting that we are walking into a meat-grinder of a Crisis. Energy, military, economic and, of course, climate right on the top of it - still largely un-sounded by the mass of folks. We need to understand in detail exactly what the pressure points are in the trainsition from unraveling to crisis and the sensitivity points of the dynamic system. If we don't a catastrophic crisis certainly looks to be in the cards - but we must also remember that a crisis is as much a time of opportunity as risk.

John's done a lot of good work here, his insights are both unique and largely sound. He just needs to make the transition to Gray Champion and start focusing on navigating the crisis rather than simply Prophesying it.

Or, to put it another way: "Oh don't get so Millenial up in arms about it, its just more of John's Boomer bullshit. (said in an Xer sarcastic voice)"

[John]

Dear Jordan,

> Agreed. First, *nothing* is inevitable (not even the heat death of
> the Universe). Second, even if WWIII is probabilistically very
> likely, the whole point and value of something like GD is to
> provide us with an understanding of the dynamics in a way that
> will allow us to avert it, dilute it, shorten it or at least
> minimize its impact. Things like understanding how the failure of
> Artists and Nomads to hold-back runaway Prophets in 1860 led to a
> crash-crisis that failed to generate a Hero type. Or how the
> specific dynamics of Nazi Germany led to a different organization
> of the 1930's crisis in Deutschland than the one we settled on in
> the USofA.

One of the worst things that people do to make the crisis worse is to
believe and behave as if the crisis can be avoided, or averted, or
diluted, or shortened, or minimized in impact.

That's the attitude that left millions of people unprepared for the
2005 tsunami or hurricane Katrina.

The crisis CANNOT be avoided, averted, diluted, shortened, or
minimized in impact, and if you allow yourself to believe that, then
you will suffer disastrous consequences and realize that you've been a
Gen-X fool.

What you CAN do is prepare. If you know that a tsunami is coming,
then you can run to higher ground, but you can't stop the tsunami.

Sincerely,

John

[scotths]

One of the worst things that people do to make the crisis worse is to
believe and behave as if the crisis can be avoided, or averted, or
diluted, or shortened, or minimized in impact.

I think we as a society need to prepare for a crisis. If a Tsunami hits we are much better off with competent leadership, an organized hero generation, and an efficient well run government. Also, I would argue that a crisis is a complicated thing. In the last crisis the work that we did building infrastructure in the 30's helped us to win in the 40's and prosper in the 50's. Thus, in a way by electing a leader who led our country in a new direction, we did deal with the crisis in a much better manner.

That's the attitude that left millions of people unprepared for the
2005 tsunami or hurricane Katrina.

Our President appointed an Arabian Horse judge to head the emergency management association! If FEMA was competent the suffering could have been greatly reduced during hurricane Katrina.

What you CAN do is prepare. If you know that a tsunami is coming,
then you can run to higher ground, but you can't stop the tsunami.

A crisis is much more than a war or a series of difficult events. It is a chance for our country to reinvent itself and the ways that things are done. It is a time to pull together and jointly find a path through. McCain denied that a crisis exists, at times literally.."The Fundamentals of the Economy are Strong!"... Obama gets straight to the point, tells us what we are up against and is trying to organize us to deal with it.

We need to start charting a course forward now, not simply wait until everything blows up, lots of people die and then start picking up the pieces. We need to face it as a nation not as individuals.

[Witchiepoo]

One of the key tasks for the turning of Xers is to move them from private (and private sector) activities into service.

I strongly disagree with your implication that "private" and "service" are mutually exclusive.

[jgreenhall]

Dear Jordan,

One of the worst things that people do to make the crisis worse is to
believe and behave as if the crisis can be avoided, or averted, or
diluted, or shortened, or minimized in impact.

That's the attitude that left millions of people unprepared for the
2005 tsunami or hurricane Katrina.

The crisis CANNOT be avoided, averted, diluted, shortened, or
minimized in impact, and if you allow yourself to believe that, then
you will suffer disastrous consequences and realize that you've been a
Gen-X fool.

Of course the crisis can be avoided, averted, diluted, shortened or minimized in impact. Katrina is a great example. FEMA behaving differently, the authorities of New Orleans behaving differently, the people of New Orleans behaving differently, the corps of engineers behaving differently, all of these would have changed the result of the crisis. The crisis *isnt* the meteorological event - the crisis is the entire event inclusive of the actions of all humans and human institutions.

A hurricane is going to hit. Thats not the question. The question is whether a city is going to be destroyed. In our case, of course, the material of the crisis might just be very similar to a hurricane (cf climate disruption) or it might be only metaphorically related (a military event), but in either event human actors continue to be critical elements of the dynamic.

I've read through all of the stuff that you've made available online and I still don't see any discussion of why you make a strong but implicit break with S&H over the characteristics of generations and of the all-important transition that occurs during the crisis where the forces of fragmentation and polarization switch to forces of cooperation and cohesion.

PS - Why the need for "fool"? It only detracts from your argument.

[jgreenhall]

One of the key tasks for the turning of Xers is to move them from private (and private sector) activities into service.

I strongly disagree with your implication that "private" and "service" are mutually exclusive.

Can you provide more info on why you strongly disagree? I'm simply trying to make the point that there are two kinds of behaviour that are characteristic of Xers - those that are focused on their personal survival, advantage, success (here I use the term "private" but any other similar term would do) and those that are turned to a more group goal. The distinction isn't the material consequences (private actions might result in collective goods) but in the spirit of the motivation. You don't disagree (strongly or otherwise) that there are selfish and unselfish motives? Or short term and long term? Or self and other?

[John]

Dear Jordan,

> Of course the crisis can be avoided, averted, diluted, shortened
> or minimized in impact. Katrina is a great example. FEMA behaving
> differently, the authorities of New Orleans behaving differently,
> the people of New Orleans behaving differently, the corps of
> engineers behaving differently, all of these would have changed
> the result of the crisis. The crisis *isnt* the meteorological
> event - the crisis is the entire event inclusive of the actions of
> all humans and human institutions.

No, no, no. This is exactly the kind of fallacious reasoning that
this web site tries to dispel by injecting some reality into people's
thinking.

Sure, the Katrina disaster could have been mitigated if FEMA had done
x, politicians had done y, and people had done z. The ONLY reason
you know that is because you know what happened in precise detail.
But if the government had prepared for that precise disaster, then
you still wouldn't have been prepared for dozens of variations on the
disaster. Every disaster can be avoided in retrospect, if there's a
time machine available. The bombing of Pearl Harbor could have been
avoided if .. if .. if.

> A hurricane is going to hit. Thats not the question. The question
> is whether a city is going to be destroyed. In our case, of
> course, the material of the crisis might just be very similar to a
> hurricane (cf climate disruption) or it might be only
> metaphorically related (a military event), but in either event
> human actors continue to be critical elements of the dynamic.

> I've read through all of the stuff that you've made available
> online and I still don't see any discussion of why you make a
> strong but implicit break with S&H over the characteristics of
> generations and of the all-important transition that occurs during
> the crisis where the forces of fragmentation and polarization
> switch to forces of cooperation and cohesion.

> PS - Why the need for "fool"? It only detracts from your
> argument.

The reason that I said that you would realize that you've been a
Gen-X fool is because you're using all this sophistry and talking
about "John's Boomer bullshit" in order to avoid thinking about how
you can best prepare for yourself and your family. Maybe you think
that everything that Boomers talk about is bullshit, but what you're
going to discover is that many Gen-Xers are total fools.

Sincerely,

John