Russia vs. Germany: Round 3?

[DaKardii]

Hi, John.

I'm becoming increasingly concerned about various reports that Germany is trying to convince the European Union's bureaucrats to seize control of the militaries of the member states, and integrate them into a "European Army" that would be led by Germany. If the integration was 100% efficient, the European Army would be 1.6 million men strong (4.1 million if you count reserves). And that's not even counting the British army (due to Brexit). In comparison, the United States military is currently 1.4 million men strong (2.5 million if you count reserves).

Should this event happen, the chances of war breaking out in Europe would dramatically increase. Not only would there be widespread civil unrest throughout the European Union, but one country in particular would be deeply alarmed by such a development: Russia. A European Army, especially one under German control, would most certainly bring back memories of 1941 to the Russians. In addition, Russia would likely take the creation of a European Army as a message that Germany is preparing for war with Russia.

So, I want to ask you three questions.

1) What is the likelihood that Germany succeeds in getting a European Army created?
2) What are the chances that Germany and Russia end up fighting each other for a third time?
3) How do you think the United States would respond to the creation of a European Army, an institution that would be a clear rival to NATO in the realm of European security?

[John]

> Hi, John. I'm becoming increasingly concerned about various
> reports that Germany is trying to convince the European Union's
> bureaucrats to seize control of the militaries of the member
> states, and integrate them into a "European Army" that would be
> led by Germany. If the integration was 100% efficient, the
> European Army would be 1.6 million men strong (4.1 million if you
> count reserves). And that's not even counting the British army
> (due to Brexit). In comparison, the United States military is
> currently 1.4 million men strong (2.5 million if you count
> reserves).

> Should this event happen, the chances of war breaking out in
> Europe would dramatically increase. Not only would there be
> widespread civil unrest throughout the European Union, but one
> country in particular would be deeply alarmed by such a
> development: Russia. A European Army, especially one under German
> control, would most certainly bring back memories of 1941 to the
> Russians. In addition, Russia would likely take the creation of a
> European Army as a message that Germany is preparing for war with
> Russia.

> So, I want to ask you three questions.

> 1) What is the likelihood that Germany succeeds in getting a
> European Army created?

> 2) What are the chances that Germany and Russia end up fighting
> each other for a third time?

> 3) How do you think the United States would respond to the
> creation of a European Army, an institution that would be a clear
> rival to NATO in the realm of European security?

The probability of a European army being created is slim to none.

http://natoassociation.ca/the-birth-of- ... pean-army/

If a European Army were created, the chances that Germany would
be in charge are slim to none.

The question of who will be fighting Russia is a matter that's
been speculated upon for years.

I've written a couple of articles about Macedonia:

** 7-May-17 World View -- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170507

** 29-Apr-17 World View -- Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170429


The comments on these articles on Breitbart are the most extreme and
vitriolic I've ever seen. These commenters were from Greece,
Macedonia (which the Greeks say shouldn't be allowed to exist),
Albania (which would like to swallow up Macedonia), and Bulgaria. If
these commenters were ever in the same room together, the floor would
be covered with blood.

So it's quite possible that the European scenario in WW III will start
in the Western Balkans (remembering that the Eastern Balkans already
had their crisis war in the 1990s).

So all we have to do is figure out which European countries will side
with which Western Balkan countries.


http://www.breitbart.com/national-secur ... e-balkans/

http://www.breitbart.com/national-secur ... r-albania/

[DaKardii]

The probability of a European army being created is slim to none.

http://natoassociation.ca/the-birth-of- ... pean-army/

If a European Army were created, the chances that Germany would
be in charge are slim to none.

The question of who will be fighting Russia is a matter that's
been speculated upon for years.

I've written a couple of articles about Macedonia:

** 7-May-17 World View -- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170507

** 29-Apr-17 World View -- Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170429


The comments on these articles on Breitbart are the most extreme and
vitriolic I've ever seen. These commenters were from Greece,
Macedonia (which the Greeks say shouldn't be allowed to exist),
Albania (which would like to swallow up Macedonia), and Bulgaria. If
these commenters were ever in the same room together, the floor would
be covered with blood.

So it's quite possible that the European scenario in WW III will start
in the Western Balkans (remembering that the Eastern Balkans already
had their crisis war in the 1990s).

So all we have to do is figure out which European countries will side
with which Western Balkan countries.


http://www.breitbart.com/national-secur ... e-balkans/

http://www.breitbart.com/national-secur ... r-albania/

Thanks for responding. Sorry it took so long for me to get back to you, as I was in North Carolina for the last ten days and didn't have Wi-Fi.

So, I read your reply, and I hope you're right that it will be next to impossible for Germany to control a "European Army."

As for your statement on the Balkans, I actually remember reading that Breitbart article before you mentioned it to me. In fact, I might have been one of the posters (though if I did comment, I was certainly not one of the vitriolic posters. I'm an American. I have no reason to go crazy over a crisis in the Balkans. Based on my own observations, however, I see a Balkans conflict as a proxy conflict between three powers: Germany, Russia, and Turkey.

In a pure Clash of Civilizations, Germany would back the Western Christian Balkan nations (Croatia and Slovenia), Russia would back the Eastern Christian Balkan nations (Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia), and Turkey would back the Muslim Balkan nations (Albania , Kosovo, and Turkey itself). However, the Macedonia crisis would make a pure Clash of Civilizations alignment impossible. Macedonia, an Orthodox country, not only faces a hostile Albania (which should be expected since Albania is Muslim), but it also faces hostility from fellow Orthodox countries Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia. Many Bulgarians and Greeks refuse to recognize Macedonia as a state, and Serbs who are bitter over the Yugoslav wars probably feel the same way.

And then there's the issue of infighting among those who oppose Macedonia. The animosity is particularly bad between Bulgaria and Serbia. Between the beginning of World War I and the end of the Cold War, Macedonia was always owned by one of those two countries. Various territorial disputes between them, including that over Macedonia, have resulted in them being bitter enemies for virtually their entire co-existence. Even during the Cold War, they were enemies, due to Bulgaria being a Soviet puppet and Serbia, as Yugoslavia, wanting to be independent from the Soviet Bloc.

These tensions placed Bulgaria and Serbia on opposing sides in both World Wars. Both times, Germany backed Bulgaria, while Russia backed Serbia. As a result, Bulgaria has historically been closer to Germany than to Russia, despite being in the same civilization as Russia. Due to this history, I cannot see Bulgaria and Serbia on the same side in the Clash of Civilization World War, unless Germany and Russia are on the same side. And even that might not be enough to make Bulgaria and Serbia allies, as Bulgaria has historically been closer to Turkey than to Russia for the same reason it has been closer to Germany than to Russia. Russia and Turkey are not going to be on the same side. That's a given. If Bulgaria is angry enough with Serbia, I can easily picture it aligning with Turkey out of spite. That's what happened in WWI, after all.

[John]

> Thanks for responding. Sorry it took so long for me to get back to
> you, as I was in North Carolina for the last ten days and didn't
> have Wi-Fi.

> So, I read your reply, and I hope you're right that it will be
> next to impossible for Germany to control a "European Army."

> As for your statement on the Balkans, I actually remember reading
> that Breitbart article before you mentioned it to me. In fact, I
> might have been one of the posters (though if I did comment, I was
> certainly not one of the vitriolic posters. I'm an
> American. I have no reason to go crazy over a crisis in the
> Balkans. Based on my own observations, however, I see a Balkans
> conflict as a proxy conflict between three powers: Germany,
> Russia, and Turkey.

> In a pure Clash of Civilizations, Germany would back the Western
> Christian Balkan nations (Croatia and Slovenia), Russia would back
> the Eastern Christian Balkan nations (Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia,
> Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia), and Turkey would back the Muslim
> Balkan nations (Albania , Kosovo, and Turkey itself). However, the
> Macedonia crisis would make a pure Clash of Civilizations
> alignment impossible. Macedonia, an Orthodox country, not only
> faces a hostile Albania (which should be expected since Albania is
> Muslim), but it also faces hostility from fellow Orthodox
> countries Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia. Many Bulgarians and Greeks
> refuse to recognize Macedonia as a state, and Serbs who are bitter
> over the Yugoslav wars probably feel the same way.

> And then there's the issue of infighting among those who oppose
> Macedonia. The animosity is particularly bad between Bulgaria and
> Serbia. Between the beginning of World War I and the end of the
> Cold War, Macedonia was always owned by one of those two
> countries. Various territorial disputes between them, including
> that over Macedonia, have resulted in them being bitter enemies
> for virtually their entire co-existence. Even during the Cold War,
> they were enemies, due to Bulgaria being a Soviet puppet and
> Serbia, as Yugoslavia, wanting to be independent from the Soviet
> Bloc.

> These tensions placed Bulgaria and Serbia on opposing sides in
> both World Wars. Both times, Germany backed Bulgaria, while Russia
> backed Serbia. As a result, Bulgaria has historically been closer
> to Germany than to Russia, despite being in the same civilization
> as Russia. Due to this history, I cannot see Bulgaria and Serbia
> on the same side in the Clash of Civilization World War, unless
> Germany and Russia are on the same side. And even that might not
> be enough to make Bulgaria and Serbia allies, as Bulgaria has
> historically been closer to Turkey than to Russia for the same
> reason it has been closer to Germany than to Russia. Russia and
> Turkey are not going to be on the same side. That's a given. If
> Bulgaria is angry enough with Serbia, I can easily picture it
> aligning with Turkey out of spite. That's what happened in WWI,
> after all.

Thanks for that analysis! That's a lot of useful information.