Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I think there is something majorly different now versus the last crisis era, and that is the idea of multiple converging events mentioned 8 years ago when Lily was on the board. Some say this is like 1929, and I think they are right. Some say this is like 1937, and I think they are right. I think this crisis is going to hit with full force on all cylinders, all at once - economic, political, and social.

2011. I think this is just a fancy way of saying that kicking the can down the road until you run out of road is not necessarily a good idea.
In doing so, my fear, which I think is well founded, is that by trying to stave off the collapse of a part of the structure where in 1932 everything did eventually survive pretty much intact, these actions will 3 or 5 or 10 years down the road collapse a much larger part of the financial system. On the other hand, that may be inevitable, or it may be a good thing in the long run - better than losing just part of the system now as occurred in 1932/3. I suspect, though, that's not the case, and that taking the banks into receivership in 2008 and going through the process of investors taking haircuts which is the basis upon which Western Civilization was founded and has prospered for many centuries would have been the correct path to take. The incorrect path I feel Bernanke et al have taken is the path that I believe will lead to a scale of collapse that is on the order of 50 or 100 years.

One reason for thinking that is the convergence of many cyclical factors as we are discussing. So while I don't think what you mentioned is the "main event" we are dealing with, it is part of the mix of things that are converging on the same or similar timelines. By trying to spread out the effects of the real estate bust, Fed and Treasury will be dealing with multiple problems all at once instead of cleaning up one problem at a time. It becomes possible that they will lose control of the multiple problems at a critical time.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > I think there is something majorly different now versus the last
> crisis era, and that is the idea of multiple converging events
> mentioned 8 years ago when Lily was on the board. Some say this is
> like 1929, and I think they are right. Some say this is like 1937,
> and I think they are right. I think this crisis is going to hit
> with full force on all cylinders, all at once - economic,
> political, and social.
I agree with this, and I would throw in World War I. An enormous
global financial crisis, along with every unsettled dispute left over
from World War I and World War II -- those are all converging into the
Mother of all World Wars.

Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

The headlines and comments over the past week indicate that the Central Banks are not going to give up on trying to prop up the stock market. My loss grew from 49K to 55K this past week.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > The headlines and comments over the past week indicate that the
> Central Banks are not going to give up on trying to prop up the
> stock market. My loss grew from 49K to 55K this past
> week.
Did you believe that they would give up trying, and then get blamed
for letting stock prices fall?

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Higgenbotham wrote: > The headlines and comments over the past week indicate that the
> Central Banks are not going to give up on trying to prop up the
> stock market. My loss grew from 49K to 55K this past
> week.
Did you believe that they would give up trying, and then get blamed
for letting stock prices fall?
The headlines and comments are indicating that, but nothing was said about lowering interest rates or adding assets back to the balance sheet anytime soon. I also read that pension funds wanted to dump $26 billion in stocks last week, according to Wells Fargo. That was interesting because the article also said pension funds usually wait till the end of the quarter, but they didn't want to wait until the end of March.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
Posts: 11485
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > The headlines and comments are indicating that, but nothing was
> said about lowering interest rates or adding assets back to the
> balance sheet anytime soon. I also read that pension funds wanted
> to dump $26 billion in stocks last week, according to Wells Fargo.
> That was interesting because the article also said pension funds
> usually wait till the end of the quarter, but they didn't want to
> wait until the end of March.
I see all sorts of charts being shown on CNBC and Bloomberg TV,
showing every possible economic and financial measure over time.

But there are two charts that dare not be shown:
  • A historical chart of P/E ratios back several decades. This would
    show that the stock market is in a bubble. Instead, the "experts" say
    that valuations are low, based on fictitious "forward earnings."
  • A historical chart of the velocity of money. This would show that
    the velocity of money has been plummeting, and explains why there is
    no inflation. Instead, the "experts" say, "We're printing all this
    money. I don't understand why there's no inflation."
Both of these charts are economics 1.01, and yet of all the thousands
of different charts that are shown every day, these are never shown,
because they disprove the common narrative. What I don't know is how
many of the "experts" know that what they're saying is crap, versus
how many of them actually believe that the crap they're saying is
true.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Several years ago, the markets went from being a casino to being a carnival.

The people you are describing are like carnival barkers. I don't watch the financial news in real time anymore (just selectively when markets are closed), but I can imagine that this week instead of "Step Right Up!" it was "Fed Pivot" this and "Fed Pivot" that. They are dreaming. In my mind, a Fed Pivot would be a reversal of policy, as in, they called an emergency meeting and lowered interest rates after they came out of it, or announced a new QE program. They did no such thing. Whether that's all been orchestrated (talk of the "Fed Pivot") to transfer stocks to the public is the question in my mind because I think the big money was caught pretty flat footed in December. The article about the pension funds selling $26 billion in stocks last week sort of indicates that.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7487
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news ... utlook-fed

Notice how the reporter laughs at him at the end.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12504
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Last edited by aeden on Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7487
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:
aeden wrote:Muppet masher was correct a3 to a2 makes no difference.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... re-new-one
Unfortunately for the carnival barkers, Das really is an expert. And he's honest.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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