Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:45 pm

The Arabs also hate the Kurds. The Shias controlling Baghdad might also attack them. The Persians have Kurd separatists too.

John
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13-Oct-19 World View -- Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests

Postby John » Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:36 pm

13-Oct-19 World View -- Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests

China deploys mass surveillance spy system in Ecuador


** 13-Oct-19 World View -- Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191013.htm#e191013




Contents:
Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests
Ecuador caught in massive debt trap by China
Indigenous people demand closure of China's copper and gold mines
China deploys mass surveillance spy system in Ecuador


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Ecuador, Lenin Moreno Garces,
Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, CONAIE,
Shuar, Cañari Kichwa, International Monetary Fund, China,
Rafael Vicente Correa Delgado, China,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, debt trap diplomacy,
Mirador copper mine, San Carlos-Panantza copper mine,
Rio Blanco gold mine,
ECU-911 system, Huawei Technologies,
China National Import & Export Corp, CEIEC.

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby guest » Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:28 pm

Latinos are just cheaters trying to cheat the cheating mainland Chinese. Latinos act like cheap whores and still expect to be treated like Donas. Not going to happen with the Chinese. They deserve each other,

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:55 pm

** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria

15,000 Turkish forces, with the Arab Syrian National Army, are pushing
into Syria, with reports that they're massacring Kurds on the ground
and through airstrikes. One video shows an Arab shooting a Kurd lying
on the ground.

Turkey seems to be going deeper and wider than they had previously
said to create a buffer zone. Thousands of Kurdish families are being
displaced and forced to flee to the south.

There are reports that hundreds of family members of ISIS families
have been set free.

The media are overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey, and so many of these
reports might be huge exaggerations. Things should become clearer in
a few days.

Some pundits are claiming that the Turks are planning ethnic cleansing
of the Kurds. Turkey says that they're targeting terrorists (PKK and
ISIS), not Kurds. Turkey points out that they're currently sheltering
300,000 Syrian Kurds in Turkey who fled the violence in Syria, so it
doesn't make sense to say that Turkey is targeting Kurds, and they
will be able to return to Syria after the buffer zone has been
created.

In the last 15 years, I've read about and written about hundreds of
incursions, military actions, invasions, and so forth. In some cases,
the incursion is carefully controlled. These are typical of
non-crisis wars.

Other incursions are highly emotional, organic and uncontrolled, and
that seems to be the case with Turkey's invasion of Syria. These are
typical of actions taken in a generational Crisis era.

The best recent analogy would be Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon to
attack Hezbollah. Israel panicked when two Israeli soldiers were
abducted near Lebanon's border, and conducted a highly emotional,
organic and uncontrolled invasion of Lebanon. The war was a disaster
for all involved, and ended a few weeks later with nothing
accomplished except to destroy a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure in
airstrikes, and displace a lot of Lebanese from their homes.

The invasion of Lebanon fizzled because Lebanon was in a
generatinal Awakening era. So is Syria.

So it's quite possible, even more likely than not, that Turkey's Syria
incursion will end in a few weeks. Erdogan made a statement earlier
today that the incursion will stop when it has created a buffer zone
400 km wide and 35 km deep, and that statement is credible.

However, the war might not end in a few weeks if the Russians decide
to intervene. This morning, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that
American troops will continue to withdraw from northern Syria, and
that "There's every expectation...that the Syrian Kurds would cut a
deal with the Syrian and Russian forces."

If the Russians defend the Kurds in an organized manner, as US forces
have been doing until now, then the Turkish intervention should fizzle.
Al-Jazeera reports that al-Assad is sending troops to the region, and
if that's true, then Russians may support them.

But as I described in detail yesterday, Russia is in a generational
Crisis era, like Turkey, and the two countries have centuries of wars
between them, so if the situation becomes uncontrolled on either side,
then there could be a full-scale war between the two countries.

Another action that would lead to full-scale war is if Trump ordered
American troops to fight the Turks and protect the Kurds. Some
politicians are calling for that, but it would be a disaster.

A number of politicians are blaming the whole situation on Donald
Trump, claiming that it was Trump's decision to withdraw 50 soldiers
from observation posts on the Turkey's border that caused Turkey's
invasion. The argument this morning is that the 50 soldiers acted as
a "tripwire," and Turkey would not risk crossing the tripwire.

That argument is completely lacking in credibility. Turkey is in
a generational Crisis era and has been planning for this invasion
for months, and there's no chance that they would be stopped
by 50 US soldiers.

This morning, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that when Trump
and Erdogan spoke on the phone last Sunday, Erdogan said that he
would go through with the invasion whether the US soldiers were there
or not. That claim is highly credible to me. Erdogan was going
ahead with the invasion, and as a courtesy, he told Trump to remove
the 50 US soldiers so that they wouldn't be caught in the crossfire.

There was a lot of weeping and moaning by politicians this morning
over the plight of the Kurds by politicians who know nothing about
them. I feel bad for the plight of the Kurds too, but I'm wondering
why I don't hear weeping and moaning from these politicians when
Bashar al-Assad's army kills and displaces millions of his Sunni Arab
political enemies with barrel bombs, chlorine gas, and Sarin gas. It
turns out that the Kurds are today's fashionable, stylish ethnic
group, while the Arab Sunnis are consigned to the waste bin.

So the situation in Syria may fizzle out, or it may expand into
full-scale war, mainly depending on what Russia does.

As I've written hundreds of times, The Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various
ethnic groups against each other. When I write this, I mean that it's
100% certain. Some people think that it depends on Trump, or Obama,
or Biden. It doesn't. A war between Turkey and Russia in Syria might
be the start, or it might turn out to be something else.


---- Source:

-- Esper says U.S. staying in Syria, but withdrawing south of Turkish
advance and deal in works to have Russians protect Kurds
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your ... ect-kurds/
(MilitaryTimes, 13-Oct-2019)


---- Related:

*** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Russia-Turkey war?
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=47985#p47985

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:54 pm

Russia is weak compared to Turkey. It has nuclear weapons, but so what? Using atomic weapons would spell the end of Russia, and the thieves running Russia don't want that to happen. Russia's ground forces are in the middle of modernization, but the process has been delayed by corruption and incompetence at every level. Russia's soldiers are still half trained conscripts. Morale is poor.


And here is the wild card:

"By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript army, and by 2020 a fifth of the population."
Ethnographers: Russia will have a Muslim majority “within our lifetime”.

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/08 ... lim-russia

I doubt the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars serving in the Russian ranks will stay loyal to Moscow. They are treated badly by ethnic Russians. I have seen first hand how badly Muslims are treated in Russian Federation. I don't see Muslim minorities in Russia allowing their sons to be used as cannon fodder in order to protect drug addicted and alcoholic Russian youth who are unfit for military service. Nor, do I suspect, do the Turks.

zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby zzazz » Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:59 am

There you have, the GD analysis of Turkey's invasion of Syria---maybe it will be a big war, or maybe it will be a little war. Same as every other GD analtsis once you strip out the BS.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:26 am

** 14-Oct-2019 100% certain

zzazz wrote:> There you have, the GD analysis of Turkey's invasion of
> Syria---maybe it will be a big war, or maybe it will be a little
> war. Same as every other GD analtsis once you strip out the
> BS.


I realize simple logic is way above you're pay grade, but the "big war"
is 100% certain, with only the scenario being uncertain. Try googling
the phrase "100% certain," so that you can learn what it means.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:30 am

** 14-Oct-2019 World View: War between Turkey and Russia

Guest wrote:> Russia is weak compared to Turkey. It has nuclear weapons, but so
> what? Using atomic weapons would spell the end of Russia, and the
> thieves running Russia don't want that to happen. Russia's ground
> forces are in the middle of modernization, but the process has
> been delayed by corruption and incompetence at every
> level. Russia's soldiers are still half trained conscripts. Morale
> is poor.

> And here is the wild card:

> "By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript
> army, and by 2020 a fifth of the population." Ethnographers:
> Russia will have a Muslim majority 'within our lifetime.'

> http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/08 ... lim-russia

> I doubt the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars serving in the Russian
> ranks will stay loyal to Moscow. They are treated badly by ethnic
> Russians. I have seen first hand how badly Muslims are treated in
> Russian Federation. I don't see Muslim minorities in Russia
> allowing their sons to be used as cannon fodder in order to
> protect drug addicted and alcoholic Russian youth who are unfit
> for military service. Nor, do I suspect, do the Turks.


This is a very interesting analysis. My comments have to do with
the fact that it's too logical.

A generational crisis war is raw emotion. Imperial Japan bombed Pearl
Harbor even though the US was five times as large as Japan, and it
was obvious that Japan would eventually lose the war.

The news today is that the Kurdish SDF has made an agreement with
Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian army, presumably backed by Russia,
will occupy northeast Syria along the border with Turkey. Presumably,
this will stop the invasion, though I don't see how.

Turkey and Russia are in generational Crisis eras, have had many
generational crisis wars in the past, and they hate each other.
This means that the situation is ripe for situations where one
clash escalates to a larger clash, leading to war. This is exactly
how world wars start, as I've described in the past.

The information you've provided about Russia's army and population
would not prevent these escalations from occurring, since the
escalations would be emotional and organic. But what you've written
shows how the war might proceed in Russia. For example, Russia's last
generational crisis war involved the Boshevik Revolution, civil war
between Stalin and Trotsky, and the Ukraine Holomodor famine. All of
these civil war elements will be repeated, and would be triggered by a
war between Turkey and Russia.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:22 pm

But the Muslim population was quite small during the Russian Revolution. Today the situation is different. The demographics have changed greatly. Wouldn't that affect GD?

Also, Russia has been fighting major wars on the territory of the Ex-Soviet Union since 1992: Armenia, Moldova, Trans-Dniester Republic, Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingusetia, North and South Ossetia, Dagestan, etc. The wars in these places have usually involved two phases decades apart, for example: Georgia-Abkhazia and South Ossetia 1991-1993, then again in 2008. Chechnya wars raged 1993 (via proxies) -1997, and then 1999-until now. Russia troops also fought in the Central Asian Republics in the 1990s. Some of these were major wars (Chechnya). How can Russia be deep into a GC?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:26 pm

** 14-Oct-2019 World View: The Great Man Theory of History
David Horn wrote:> Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It
> wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000
> Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS
> prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!


Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved
in a major war with Turkey. Of course, then you would be posting
messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had
been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq
war. I've seen this cynical game played over and over.

Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would. Erdogan
has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have
become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa. He made
it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.

There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds
on its border. What's happening now had to happen.

You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and
it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats
and Republicans.

Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History." It's the
belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world
happens because the president of the United States did something or
didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.

Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was
adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the
Fourth Turning without a war.

But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that
his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling
the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.

In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add
one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s
probably a good thing. Not probably. It’s definitely a good thing."

So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though
without realizing that he was doing so.

The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that
is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly
disproved by events. Great events happen because of the flow of
populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the
President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't
do.

So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and
set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's
politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish
political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some
point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.

So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening.
So it is working out the way I thought it would.

So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war
between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a
posting a few days ago. The news today is that al-Assad's army is
headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia. Turkey and
Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought
numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with
absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant
future.
David Horn wrote:> This has only started!


Yes of course it has. Generational Dynamics has predicted a major
Mideast war for years. Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.


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