Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Tue Oct 15, 2019 7:13 am

China Wants Tariffs Cut to Enable $50 Billion Imports From U.S.


The Chinese will never change....

Trump negotiates in good faith with people who have no concept of honor at all. I hope the trade war resumes. The Chinese were hurting more than we were.

utahbob
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby utahbob » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:48 am

** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria
John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are mistaken. The “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a general title that has many “diverse” groups and that term is used by the lazy media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical communists “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds” in a heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into “battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man” for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey proper.
The big issue that has to be dealt with before Syria can be carved into zones of power is ISIS. Knowing the history of that region on how problems hammered out in the past, it will not be pretty and best the US walk away. The US cannot “fix” that area of the world.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:37 pm

** 15-Oct-2019 World View: The Kurds vs the Turks and Syrians

utahbob wrote:> ** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria

> John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are mistaken. The
> “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a general title that
> has many “diverse” groups and that term is used by the lazy
> media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical communists
> “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds” in a
> heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into
> “battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry
> company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and
> love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with
> the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man”
> for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will
> make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way
> forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey
> proper.

> The big issue that has to be dealt with before Syria can be carved
> into zones of power is ISIS. Knowing the history of that region on
> how problems hammered out in the past, it will not be pretty and
> best the US walk away. The US cannot “fix” that area of the
> world.


Thanks for that "on the ground" information. Most news reports are
buried in one ideology or another, it's hard to discern the truth,
but I've known you long enough to know that what you're saying
is the actual situation.

The information you're providing explains why Turkey is getting along
with an internal population of 300,000 Kurds, but is still invading
Syria to eliminate PKK/YPG Kurds. However, reports indicate that it's
the Syrian Arabs in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is allied
with Turkey, that really hate the Kurds.

The news today is that the Syrian army is heading north to separate
the Kurdish SDF from Turkish forces, and Russia is sending special
forces into the area to separate Syrian forces from Kurdish forces and
Turkish forces.

So perhaps the 50 American soldiers who were withdrawn from border
posts are now being replaced by Russian soldiers in border posts.
Whether this is happening may become clearer as the chaos ends. As of
now, Turkey's invasion is raging on.

Another implication is that Russia and Turkey are not headed for war
with each other, which I speculated about a few days ago. As I wrote
at the time, Russia and Turkey are historically mortal enemies, and
both are in a generational Crisis era, and so they've been going to
great lengths, through the "Astana process," to make sure that there's
no miscalculation that can lead to war.

The US and EU are threatening harsh sanctions against Turkey if the
invasion doesn't end soon. At the same time, Turkey's forces are
being blocked by Russian forces. The result is that Turkey has
become almost completely isolated. Erdogan has been very skillful
at playing the US and Russia against each other, but that's not
possible at the present time.


Guest wrote:> But the Muslim population was quite small during the Russian
> Revolution. Today the situation is different. The demographics
> have changed greatly. Wouldn't that affect GD?

> Also, Russia has been fighting major wars on the territory of the
> Ex-Soviet Union since 1992: Armenia, Moldova, Trans-Dniester
> Republic, Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingusetia, North and South
> Ossetia, Dagestan, etc. The wars in these places have usually
> involved two phases decades apart, for example: Georgia-Abkhazia
> and South Ossetia 1991-1993, then again in 2008. Chechnya wars
> raged 1993 (via proxies) -1997, and then 1999-until now. Russia
> troops also fought in the Central Asian Republics in the
> 1990s. Some of these were major wars (Chechnya). How can Russia
> be deep into a GC?


Russia's last generational crisis war was the Russian Revolution.
The other wars that you mention are non-crisis wars.

With regard to wars in "two phases," that's how many non-crisis wars
occur. The two sides clash, and have a truce and a peace agreement.
The peace agreement collapses and there's a new clash, and the cycle
repeats, alternating between periods of violence and negotiated peace.
Each episode of war is more violent than the preceding one, until
finally it spins into a full-scale generational crisis war.

One problem with analyzing Russia is that it's so big that it's
on several timelines.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:36 pm

** 15-Oct-2019 World View: Iran in Syria

Lindsey Graham was interviewed on Fox News this evening, after he met
with Trump for two hours.

He says that Iran is moving troops to take over the oil fields in
Syria's northeast, and he recommended to Trump to send in American
soldiers to protect the oil fields.

I wanted to report this because I haven't mentioned Iran so far in my
previous reports.

John
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18-Oct-19 World View -- Generational analysis of Syria war and ceasefire agreement

Postby John » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:40 am

18-Oct-19 World View -- Generational analysis of Syria war and ceasefire agreement


Will there be a war between Turkey and Russia?

** 18-Oct-19 World View -- Generational analysis of Syria war and ceasefire agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191018.htm#e191018




Contents:
Turkey and the United States agree to a ceasefire
Turkey's long preparations for invasion of Syria
Turkey's uncontrolled invasion into Syria
Dozens of warring parties and ethnic groups in Syria
The rise of Russia's influence in Syria
Will there be a war between Turkey and Russia?


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites,
Syrian Democratic Force, SDF, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Rojava, Syrian National Army, SNA,
Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Russia, China

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:40 pm

The protests in Hong Kong seem to be dying off. Do you think that they'll die off completely?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:21 pm

** 20-Oct-2019 World View: Hong Kong riots

Guest wrote:> The protests in Hong Kong seem to be dying off. Do you think that
> they'll die off completely?


As far as I can tell, they aren't dying off at all, but they have
reached some kind of "steady state" for the time being. There are a
certain number of protesters each weekend, there's a certain amount of
property damage each weekend, and there's a certain amount of violence
by the police each weekend. But all of those numbers seem to be
roughly the same each week, so there's no major news.

I should add that even if the protests die off, as they did in 2014,
it would be only temporary. The protests are based on very deep
feelings that are only going to grow stronger:

  • The Hong Kongers hate the mainlanders.
  • The Hong Kongers speak Cantonese, while the mainlanders speak
    Mandarin.
  • Tensions are growing along the Beijing-Hong Kong and north-south
    fault lines, and China is overdue for a new massive anti-government
    rebellion, following the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's
    Communist Revolution (1934-49).
  • Young people are very aware that Hong Kong is scheduled in 2047 to
    lose any special democratic freedoms that were supposedly guaranteed
    by the CCP when Britain handed over Hong Kong in 1997. In particular,
    young people are aware that if they get married, then any children
    they bring into the world will be under the thumb of the violent CCP
    dictatorship.

Incidentally, there are some reports that mainlanders visiting
Hong Kong are afraid to speak Mandarin, for fear of being attacked.
The solution is that they speak English, which is hugely ironic.

We've been wondering for a long time when the CCP would send the army
into Hong Kong. I heard an analyst of tv say that would never happen.
Right now, Carrie Lam and the HK security police have to deal with the
protesters. If the army came in, then the protesters would not go
away, but Xi Jinping and the army would have to deal with them. The
CCP would prefer things the way they are.

Incidentally, the Hong Kong hostility to mainlanders isn't new.
Here's something that I wrote in 2012:

[Begin quote]

Hong Kong's growing hostility to mainland China evident from Hu Jintao's visit

Image

    From July 2012: Young Hong Kong protester carries a picture
    of Queen Elizabeth on Sunday (Reuters)


As we reported yesterday, China's president Hu Jintao visited Hong
Kong on Sunday to celebrate the 15th anniversary of the handover of
Hong Kong by Britain to China. Reports indicate that, far from being
a happy celebration, the events sharpened the anger of Hong Kong
residents against the mainland:

  • A journalist tried to ask Hu a question about Tiananmen
    Square, and he was jailed, something that infuriated the journalist
    fraternity.
  • Hu introduced Hong Kong's new Chief Executive from the mainland,
    C.Y. Leung. Leung insulted many present by giving his inaugural
    address in Mandarin, the language of the mainland, rather than in
    Cantonese, which is the first language of more than 90 percent of Hong
    Kong’s people.
  • Some 100,000 protesters joined a pro-democracy march from Victoria
    Park to the shoreline of Victoria Harbor. (These are, of course,
    British names.)
  • Many of the protesters carried old British-era Hong Kong flags,
    which carry the British Union flag in one corner. It has become a
    symbol not so much of nostalgia for the British as a banner for those
    demanding real autonomy.
  • There was a huge contingent of Falun Gong protesters. The Falun
    Gong sprang up in mainland China in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen
    Square massacre, and had millions of adherents before Beijing crushed
    them. Since around 2000, anyone belonging to the Falun Gong on the
    mainland is subject to arrest and torture.
  • A public opinion poll shows 64% of those polled thought that Hong
    Kong had become a worse place since the handover.

In China's last generational crisis civil war, Mao's Communist
Revolution that climaxed in 1949, those who were able to escape to
Formosa (Taiwan) did so by passing through Hong Kong. It's likely
that Hong Kong will again play a pivotal role in China's next crisis
civil war.

[End quote]

So that was happening in July 2012. One major difference today is
that protesters are carrying American flags rather than British flags.

At any rate, the answer to your questions is: No, I don't think that
the protests will die off completely, though they might end
temporarily.

Trevor
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Trevor » Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:20 pm

I personally think the war isn't going to be triggered until after we have another global recession. We didn't solve the problems back in 2008, only papered them over, and we're much more heavily in debt than we were a decade ago. We've got all the tinder necessary for a major conflict, but no motivation yet to light the match and damn the consequences.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:26 pm

** 20-Oct-2019 Root cause of the war

Trevor wrote:> I personally think the war isn't going to be triggered until after
> we have another global recession. We didn't solve the problems
> back in 2008, only papered them over, and we're much more heavily
> in debt than we were a decade ago. We've got all the tinder
> necessary for a major conflict, but no motivation yet to light the
> match and damn the consequences.


That's probably true, but keep in mind that a local situation could
trigger a local recession, which could ten trigger a global recession,
which could then trigger the war. So then politicians could argue
about what actually was the "root cause" of the war, and who should be
blamed.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:30 pm

Guest wrote:The protests in Hong Kong seem to be dying off. Do you think that they'll die off completely?

What a ridiculous statement. Were you paid to write that?


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