Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Jan-2020 World View: Price of gold

Image
  • Price of gold, 1851-2010, in constant 2010 dollars (Motley
    Fool)


Image


Gold is in a huge bubble. If you buy gold, you will end up losing
around $1,000 per ounce.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Holders of gold do so because they believe it's value is more enduring than the national currency. USD has lost 98% of it's value since the introduction of the Federal Reserve, equal to roughly present day valuation. Could go down to 1000 or up to 2000 depending on the mood and conditions. Anything else will be the condition of the USD. Watch the government debt, deficit and general operations. Are we more confident or less. With a currency valued by the full faith and confidence in the government, you are free to decide.
But really, at this stage of the game we need to be using available resources for preparation. And how we should go about that is critical, not comparable to 'making' or 'losing' "money". What's the use of we perish because of lack of planning?

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Jan-2020 World View: Lebanon riots continue as Hezbollah ministers form new government

Thick, grey smoki hung over the center of Lebanon's capital city
Beirut on Wednesday, as another day of rioting near the Parliament
building and the shopping mall. This was another day of violent
confrontations between protesters and police that began on October 17,
causing the prime minister to resign and the government to collapse on
October 29.

** 19-Jan-20 World View -- Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200119



The new riots follow the selection of a new acting prime minister,
Hassan Diab, and Diab's selection of a new Cabinet. The selections
were driven by Hezbollah, and Diab and the 20 Cabinet ministers are
all thought to be aligned with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, led by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, is a puppet of Iran and
Syria. The US, Israel, Canada and the Arab League consider Hezbollah
a terrorist organization. However, Australia and most of the European
Union differentiate between its legitimate political activities and
its militant wing.

This represents a historic change in the structure of Lebanon's
government. As I described in the article referenced above, Lebanon
has a "confessional" system of government, where power is divided
based on sectarian affiliation or confession, where the functions of
the government are to be split equally among Sunni Muslim, Shia
Muslim, and Christian factions. But now politicians in other factions
are saying that "Hezbollah is now completing its takeover of Lebanon
through the new government."

This is only enraging the protesters. One 40-year-old protester is
quoted as saying, "We are here to say this government doesn't
represent the revolutionaries as the prime minister Hassan Diab
says. ... They are the same parties, the same corrupt political
elite."

A 62-year-old engineer said, "This is an anti-people government, it is
a sectarian government which is not representative of the social and
demographic terrain of the Lebanese population."

Many of the protesters are coming from the impoverished city of
Tripoli in northern Lebanon. They are quoted as saying that the new
cabinet is just a rubber stamp of the existing government. They
insist that the protests and riots will continue indefinitedly,
saying, "We have nothing to lose."

---- Sources:

-- New government shows Hezbollah ‘takeover of Lebanon is complete’
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1616716/middle-east
(Arab News, 22-Jan-2020)

-- Lebanon announces new 'expert' government
https://www.dw.com/en/lebanon-announces ... a-52102252
(Deutsche Welle, 21-Jan-2020)

-- Lebanese Cabinet faces multiple challenges, growing unrest
https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-eas ... t-1.615766
(Stars and Stripes, AP, 22-Jan-2020)

-- Lebanon protests are dividing the country’s struggling media
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/media/ ... media.html
(Al Arabiya, Riyadh, 5-Dec-2019)

-- Protesters condemn Hassan Diab’s new government in Lebanon
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/m ... itics.html
(Al Arabiya, Riyadh, 22-Jan-2020)

-- Rich Lebanese hoarding cash despite capital controls
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/featur ... trols.html
(Al Arabiya, Riyadh, 21-Jan-2020)

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:** 22-Jan-2020 World View: Price of gold

[im g]http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/w ... 01107b.jpg[/img]
  • Price of gold, 1851-2010, in constant 2010 dollars (Motley
    Fool)


[im g]https://goldprice.org/charts/history/go ... _usd_x.png[/img]


Gold is in a huge bubble. If you buy gold, you will end up losing
around $1,000 per ounce.
Would that be $1000.00 (per oz) in 2010 dollars?

..that might not be so bad.... <cough> no, wait,.. that's worse, isn't it....? Dammmmmmn....

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Wouldn’t there be a ceiling on gold, where you can mine even poor ores to get it cheaper, or even mine sea water?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Tom Mazanec wrote:Wouldn’t there be a ceiling on gold, where you can mine even poor ores to get it cheaper, or even mine sea water?
Yeah,.. by definition. :)

If gold was $200,000,000.00/oz my teeth would make me rich...!!

..for 12 milliseconds,.. until all fiat currencies crashed.

Image
DISAPPOINTED CAT

Buoyancy, people, buoyancy,.. 'though probably more properly, "return to the mean" being the principle.

..I just tend to think of things "physics related" in "boat" terms. Har, where's me rum.....

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Are you going to eat your gold when you can't get food at the store?

We don't live in a civilization where everything is localized and you'll be trading your local farmers with gold.

Nobody is going to be trading off cans of food for gold coins.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 23-Jan-2020 World View: Trading gold
Guest wrote: > Are you going to eat your gold when you can't get food at the
> store?

> We don't live in a civilization where everything is localized and
> you'll be trading your local farmers with gold.

> Nobody is going to be trading off cans of food for gold
> coins.
Actually, that may not be true. There will be people who will tell
you, "Oh, so your kids are starving and one is close to death, and you
have some gold coins? Wellllllll, I have a deal for you. I'll give
you a can of beef stew for each gold coin you give me."

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Gold helped some of my relatives start new lives when they left their homelands. Fiat currency would not have worked. Also, those coins were easily hidden and carried. If society completely collapses, then gold will be used for paperweights. However, gold has been valued for thousands of years. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

As for the price of gold, I can't imagine what that state of the global economy be in if gold were suddenly $12,000 an ounce. I can imagine pandemonium everywhere in that case. I doubt most would survive long in such a chaotic scenario.

Gold is something held for the long term and emergencies. It's not a good short term investment (unless you live in Iraq, Libya, or Syria).

Gold is gold everywhere. Having $50,000 in gold (easily carried) meant life for my relatives when they had to flee one night with only the clothes on their backs (but with gold in their pockets).

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:** 23-Jan-2020 World View: Trading gold
Guest wrote: > Are you going to eat your gold when you can't get food at the
> store?

> We don't live in a civilization where everything is localized and
> you'll be trading your local farmers with gold.

> Nobody is going to be trading off cans of food for gold
> coins.
Actually, that may not be true. There will be people who will tell
you, "Oh, so your kids are starving and one is close to death, and you
have some gold coins? Wellllllll, I have a deal for you. I'll give
you a can of beef stew for each gold coin you give me."
Mad Max. Okay, I get it. That would be the end of most techno dependent people on this planet. You can't take smartphone zombies and make them into nomadic herdsmen overnight. 99% will die.

Most in the third world I have met live off of charity: food donated by America and Europe, even Japan. The average African lives in a makeshift hut, wears a beanie, and does nothing but walk down to distribution centers and pick up bags of free food. When the next world war begins, most in the third world will starve to death.

Even 'preppers' have limited food stocks. From the videos I've seen on YouTube, they average prepper has about a month's supply of food and they say it's a year's worth on their smug videos.

I don't know how many people will survive, but it won't be that many. Most likely country people living in the mountains or isolated areas will survive. They have the skills. But the future will be lo tech. I don't want to survive in that scenario. I doubt I would. Water borne illness almost killed me when I was besieged during a war two decades ago. Yes. Really. I escaped to America. If America falls, then everything falls with it.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 45 guests