Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aeden
Posts: 4782
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

The money flows up as ground intel indicates heterogeneous collapses even locally.

Replying to
@BOBBYRYANTX
@SquawkCNBC
@onlyyoontv
Next to ZH who was weeks ahead of all of these takes and got banned by a literal pedo working for Buzzfeed
10:49 AM · Feb 13, 2020

Higgenbotham
Posts: 5479
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/charlie ... xcess.html
Charlie Munger warns there are ‘lots of troubles coming’ because of ‘too much wretched excess’

PUBLISHED WED, FEB 12 2020 3:30 PM EST UPDATED MOMENTS AGO

Munger highlighted how much risk investors are taking when investing, particularly in China.
“In China, … they love to gamble in stocks. This is really stupid,” Munger said.
Munger also highlighted the proliferation of EBITDA as a profit metric as another sign of wretched excess, calling it “ridiculous.”
“I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA, which I call bulls--- earnings.”


Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, issued a dire warning about the future on Wednesday.

“I think there are lots of troubles coming,” he said at the Los Angeles-based Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting. “There’s too much wretched excess.”

To make his point about excess, Munger cited the proliferation of EBITDA as a fake profit metric. “I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA, which I call bulls--- earnings,” he said.

“It’s ridiculous,” Munger said, noting EBITDA — which is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — does not accurately reflect how much money a company makes, unlike traditional earnings. “Think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes when you start talking about adjusted EBITDA. You’re almost announcing you’re a flake.”

But that’s not all that’s bothering Munger. He also said the innovation boom he has experienced throughout his life could start to wane.

“I do think that my generation had the best of all this technological change,” said Munger, 96, noting medicine has improved dramatically during his lifetime while inventions such as air conditioning have increased the standard of living. “I don’t think we’re going to get as much improvement in the future because we’ve gotten so much already.”

Investors of all stripes look forward to Munger’s annual address since because of the wisdom he shares. Munger is also considered to be one of the best investors and business thinkers ever. Before joining Buffett at Berkshire, Munger ran an investment partnership that returned an average of 20% per year from 1962 to 1975. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 averaged an annual return of just 5% in that time.
Maybe the Fed listened to Charlie Munger and got scared.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 4782
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/movi ... eview.html

The FED is trying to survive the most corrupted villains since the invention of sliced bread.
The masters of propaganda are just applying what they are capable of. The end of the market
as these children go under the wheel. To state they are capable to move forward is the oxymoron
of our lifetime. Chains, bayonet marches, murder, and now the free shit army of willing deception
will end it once and for all. The crushing effect of the market under these damn deceived fools will
be legendary and already written of in warning. They willfully will embrace annihilation of a market they
never understood from issues they do even comprehend. Dinesh serves a small slice of remembrance
and even to this day those glassy eyes are sealed to evil they cannot comprehend.
Last edited by aeden on Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

aeden
Posts: 4782
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQGf2U-VAAE5fqe.png:large

As we noted H

Hope all is well and I avoid anything associated with that puppet at telsa long or short.

P/E 52.21 are simple yellow peckers to think it prevents annihilation.
I think the battery tech papers were noted here years ago as lithium-ion fluid realities.
I got some college in chemistry and know better as know the stock better than your wife.
Deranged bitches in tech applies in any pronouned mirage.
As we seen from the other age the sniffles was shot, and the best general they had.
This current round of avarice is always surrounded in a cloud of voter temerity.
I cannot see how these alleged democrats can even open their collective yaps to the issues pressing.
pretext: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 251#p14253
As noted also appreciate the candor and ass kicking of our views in this cloister.
We do note the loss of liberty in zones to free expression and market risk.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 900#p14238

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... uts#p17347

aeden
Posts: 4782
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://vimeo.com/385065472
They are the guardians and smart enough to not want it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0E0ynyIUsg

Always the same thought map your in areas you should not be.

We did elect you.

The leaves always fall and yes they are correct as slap the grandmother when the child misbehaves from the Wifes People.

Eventually, the rift between Rome and Constantinople led to the Great Schism between the Eastern Church and the Western Church in AD 1054.
The question was fully Human.

We will maintain and increase nodes to maintain viable thought maps.

The remnant.

thread: psychological catastrophe
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... e-humanity
Last edited by aeden on Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 5479
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:As we noted H

Hope all is well and I avoid anything associated with that puppet at telsa long or short.
Image

I've been trying for days to pick the high in the Nasdaq and have only managed crumbs so far. But I'll keep trying, even if it has already topped out.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 5479
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Let's say the stock market futures have topped out at this session's all time high of 3388.50 on the March S&P futures. It would seem reasonable that it could happen given the extremes in valuation and the uncertainty in the economy.

I would estimate fair value on the S&P at no more than 1300 (probably less) based on long term trend and long term earnings, provided we are in a "run of the mill" cycle (which I don't think we are, but in that case, fair value in much less, so let's just be conservative and use "run of the mill" analysis as the truth on that will manifest as time goes on). Before the bear market is done, the "run of the mill" bear market will typically undershoot fair value by 50%. Assuming that type of cycle, the trend will move higher even as the market moves lower and may be at 1500 or so when the market bottoms. That would put the "conservative" target on the S&P somewhere around 750 (and probably much less).

I think Tesla is a key (maybe the key) stock to watch because it represents a barometer for optimism about the future, much more so than any of the FAANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google, as those companies have met their missions) in my opinion. It also represents a barometer for the rampant greed and speculation, long and short. If Tesla has topped (and I think it has) even if the high in the Nasdaq is in the future (and I don't think it is), it is not far away. Months at the most, it would seem.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
Posts: 9506
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Stock market trend

Higgenbotham wrote: > Let's say the stock market futures have topped out at this
> session's all time high of 3388.50 on the March S&P futures. It
> would seem reasonable that it could happen given the extremes in
> valuation and the uncertainty in the economy.

> I would estimate fair value on the S&P at no more than 1300
> (probably less) based on long term trend and long term earnings,
> provided we are in a "run of the mill" cycle (which I don't think
> we are, but in that case, fair value in much less, so let's just
> be conservative and use "run of the mill" analysis as the truth on
> that will manifest as time goes on). Before the bear market is
> done, the "run of the mill" bear market will typically undershoot
> fair value by 50%. Assuming that type of cycle, the trend will
> move higher even as the market moves lower and may be at 1500 or
> so when the market bottoms. That would put the "conservative"
> target on the S&P somewhere around 750 (and probably much less).

> I think Tesla is a key (maybe the key) stock to watch because it
> represents a barometer for optimism about the future, much more so
> than any of the FAANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and
> Google, as those companies have met their missions) in my opinion.
> It also represents a barometer for the rampant greed and
> speculation, long and short. If Tesla has topped (and I think it
> has) even if the high in the Nasdaq is in the future (and I don't
> think it is), it is not far away. Months at the most, it would
> seem.
I think that this analysis is exactly right.

I just updated my DJIA historical page for the first time in a while:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm


It says that the current DJIA trend value is 9325. If we assume
roughly ten to one ratio, then the current S&P 500 trend value would
be more like 932.


Higgenbotham
Posts: 5479
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Stock market trend

Higgenbotham wrote:
> I would estimate fair value on the S&P at no more than 1300
> (probably less).
I think that this analysis is exactly right.

I just updated my DJIA historical page for the first time in a while:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm


It says that the current DJIA trend value is 9325. If we assume
roughly ten to one ratio, then the current S&P 500 trend value would
be more like 932.
Thank you, I have been looking for that update. I think your 932 is a lot closer to actual trend value than 1300. If so, a 90% loss in the stock market over the next few years has a reasonable probability of occurring. For those who don't follow the stock market, the S&P is currently at 3380 and hit a new record high again this week.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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