Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Lets imagine that 6 months from now the Covid-19 has faded into the background of other colds and flues. How long will it take before people are willing to go on airplanes or cruise ships again? To conferences? Travel for fun? Disney land?

I think airplanes and cruise ships need to figure out air filtration and sterilization such that one passenger is not a danger to others before they will ever get back to the old levels. This probably takes years.

Tesla's "bio defense mode" will probably help sales of their cars.

Maybe not permanently shut down but there will definitely be a lasting effect.

I'm expecting wave after wave of pandemics to sweep the world. How long it takes for the second wave of pandemic to sweep through will make some difference. If it's 6 months from now and the second wave is worse, that won't be good.

Wave after wave? Why?

The first reason is that with any particular virus, it will typically sweep through the world multiple times. The 1918 flu pandemic did that, as Vince notes above.

The second reason is that there are multiple lethal viruses other than COVID-19 that exist in multiple laboratories right now that can be released either by accident or on purpose.

The third reason is that as the first wave of pandemic wears down the population, the population becomes more susceptible. This susceptibility can result in another pandemic, even from an existing virus that the population was previously immune to.

The fourth reason is that the technology now exists for lone wolves, terrorist groups, and governments to create more lethal viruses that don't presently exist for the purpose of creating havoc or for warfare.

To me, the question is not if, but when, the second and more lethal wave sweeps through.

[aeden]

To me, the question is not if, but when, the second and more lethal wave sweeps through. h

I tend to agree in the pretext as the judgement window indicates.
The messenger we have chosen has consequences.
Are they locked up that attacked the Office.
Enough has been undermined.
Borders have consequences just as well as they drop seeds also.
They have sown the failures.
We are still forgotten.
The take down is undeniable just as conflated rhetoric to above average skill sets.

Professor George Church of Harvard University, also known as the Godfather of Genetics, recently teamed with BGI's Shenzhen Life Science Research Institute to set up the new facility, based on the national gene pool synthesis and editing platform.
On the development of the institute and its goal, Church said, "We are using it as a vehicle for testing new technologies, we have a companion institute in Boston that is developing transformative technologies. We'll be codeveloping those for synthetic biology in Shenzhen with BGI."

The government in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu has unveiled a plan to sequence the genes of 1 million subjects in hopes of creating a large DNA sequencing platform and biomedical big data analysis center in Nanjing as well as a genetic information database for Chinese.

Authorities announced the scheme at the China-US Precision Medicine Initiatives Nanjing Summit yesterday, Chinanews.com reported. Four experts from China and abroad will act as senior consultants on the project. One is George Church, a professor of genetics from Harvard University.
The National Health Medicine Big Data (Nanjing) Center


George Church is also a founder of Yizhen Biological Technology Co., headquartered in Hangzhou in China's eastern Zhejiang province. The firm uses genetic testing techniques to help medical institutions and individuals understand the risk of disease and reveal genetic characteristics. He is also on the advisory board at the DAMO Academy, part of Chinese internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s

These are evil pricks.
Americans are naive also.

The average Chinese and Americans are defenseless.

As this current propaganda tour commences been seen both cultures are witnesses to what we already know.

The DOJ are a soiled door mat to criminals.

[Higgenbotham]

From 2014.

This is from a person who works as an engineer in a semiconductor plant in Asia. I read anything he writes pretty religiously. These are blog comments and a search can find this comment. I usually copy the blog post and paste it into a document program so I can search his comments.

This is a sample comment. I do remember he said somewhere else that they were within days of shutdown in 2008 due to this kind of situation (and I will look for that).

Making semiconductor, yes, it is a very resource intensive product. We use a lot of water and electricity (really really a lot). We use a lot of exotic stuff like Indium, pure helium and other gases that no one in the main street knows. We use gallium arsenide and many other chemicals and rare earth just to make chips for mobile phones and game consoles. The machine that makes these chips uses ceramic parts that is very pure and very difficult to manufacture. We use ultra-pure water that requires fantastic filtration systems. We use diamond tipped blades to cut the wafers. We use specialty adhesive to bond the chips to the products. We use extremely precise parts like mass flow controllers (that has dual use in uranium enrichment) in our equipment. Our O-rings has space age materials and one 20-inch diameter o-ring may cost USD2000.

Do a Google search on GALDEN coolant that we use in our chillers. Galden is also used in the NASA space program. Do a Google check on EKC265 and see why Dupont is charging semiconductor companies thousands of dollars just for a few gallons of these liquid. Even in good times, the lead time for these materials are long and the supplier wants a forecast so that they can prepare for us. You cannot call them and say I want 10 bottles now.

With all the exotic materials and part, think again on where the manufacturer source their parts to make these exotic materials for us. Think of their supply chain that is so long and also the supplier’s supplier. Think of the proprietary materials that they know only. Think on where to get Indium and gallium when the quality of ore is getting worse. There are tens of thousands of parts that can spoil in the semiconductor factory.

What I have said the last 6-7 paragraphs are for the SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS that goes into the controller and not the entire wind turbine or solar panel. The skills required to change the parts is another story. When TSHTF, do we still have the skills? Anyone knows how to change the inverters of a solar farm? Anyone can get a crane and climb up the wind turbine and see which part to change. Without the skills, no one dares to climb up or change any parts.

Remember, like the semiconductor factory or a modern car, one spoilt part or busted bearing (made with futuristic alloy that can withstand the stress and heat) and that machine cannot be used.

Tell me how we can manufacture semiconductor chips (which are so pervasive in our life) if any of the supplies mentioned above is gone. As far as I know, there are no substitutes. I stand to be corrected. Anyone out there, let me know if I am wrong.

[aeden]

as we knew was coming
Communist officials have attempted to deflect blame away from the central government

The government in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu has unveiled a plan to sequence the genes of 1 million subjects in hopes of creating a large DNA sequencing platform and biomedical big data analysis

spot price will be crushed to buy producers later
last implosion was noted as condensates for catalyst crackers was ~17 percent over
no accidents exist - wake the f#$k up

your correct H these people are to stupid to survive

https://www.scripps.edu/faculty/goodsell/ <----------- yes we read also

https://www.scripps.edu/science-and-med ... index.html

[Higgenbotham]

The same poster quoted above years ago on March 12, 2020.

This can be found at this link: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/11/i ... /#comments

We are now presently at the advanced stage of collapse. I did made a prediction in the last article and Covidinamonthorayearoradecade said that I was wrong. It would be worse and by gosh, he is right. Bankruptcy – slowly and then suddenly.

Lookng at the headlines at Zerohedge, you can see that Port of Hamburg is facing critical supply chain issue with a 40% drop in traffic, stock exchanges in use dropping to limit down, Boeing and other large corporations are drawing down their revolver loans, funding freeze, clogged financial drains and pipes, oil now going down close to USD30, etc.

I am in Singapore at the present moment. On Monday, I was at Changi airport, I could see that 11am prime time for travel, I think I am seeing a loss of 80% foot traffic. My friend send to me a video of Hatyai, a city in Southern Thailand, you can cross a busy road with your eyes closed. This place is a place where Malaysians like to go. Hatyai is far from the epicenter of virus and yet, tourist as not going there. In essence, Asia is already having a “voluntary quarantine”. I just cannot see that if this goes on for another 6 months, how can cities and people survive if everyone choose to “self quarantine”.

I just simply cannot see how this will “heal itself”.

This is somebody who is in Asia working in semiconductor manufacturing and has been thinking about and witnessing supply chain issues first hand for many years.

[John]

** 14-Mar-2020 World View: Gloom and doom

There's a certain amusing irony to my saying that I don't agree
with these "gloom and doom" forecasts, but that in fact is the case.

There are two separate issues -- the progression of the virus, and
the progression of the economy. Even as Covid-19 spreads
and grows exponentially, people around the world are looking for
ways to adapt and stay in business or start new businesses. This
is the way people act, and it's no different now.

Right now, it seems that things are at rock bottom as far as business
is concerned. Here's what I wrote a couple of days ago: In America
and the West, businesses are scrambling to do what it takes to stay in
business. If required, they're canceling events or closing business
locations to prevent spread of the virus. They're reworking supply
chains, implementing technology, dispersing employees or having them
work from home, and so forth. This is standard behavior in a country
like the US with free markets, where each business wants to maximize
profits and keep employees busy and happy. There are similar
motivations for governments and governmental organizations, who are
primarily motivated to maintain stability in their constituents.

As I've written in the past, I expect most companies to be at least
partially back in business by summer, doing whatever it takes --
robotics, working at home, restructuring supply chains, special social
distance compartments in restaurants, etc. Vince mentioned fixing air
filtration and sterilization in planes. This kind of stuff is all
under active consideration all over the world.

The only thing that can really prevent this is World War III.

[Higgenbotham]

** 14-Mar-2020 World View: Gloom and doom

Right now, it seems that things are at rock bottom as far as business
is concerned.

Given that, is the stock market a buy or a sell at 2700 on the S&P? If things are rock bottom as far as business is concerned, wouldn't it be a buy?

[John]

** 14-Mar-2020 World View: The economy vs the stock market

> Given that, is the stock market a buy or a sell at 2700 on the
> S&P? If things are rock bottom as far as business is concerned,
> wouldn't it be a buy?

I'm not talking about the stock market. The stock market is in
a fantasy bubble all its own.

I'm talking about a guy running a restaurant or a bar, a small factory
manufacturing tables and chairs, a laundry or dry cleaning service, a
farm food processing firm, and so forth. The owners of these
businesses are scrambling around, looking for ways to stay in
business, and they'll find a way, irrespective of the stock market.

[Higgenbotham]

** 14-Mar-2020 World View: The economy vs the stock market

> Given that, is the stock market a buy or a sell at 2700 on the
> S&P? If things are rock bottom as far as business is concerned,
> wouldn't it be a buy?

I'm not talking about the stock market. The stock market is in
a fantasy bubble all its own.

I'm talking about a guy running a restaurant or a bar, a small factory
manufacturing tables and chairs, a laundry or dry cleaning service, a
farm food processing firm, and so forth. The owners of these
businesses are scrambling around, looking for ways to stay in
business, and they'll find a way, irrespective of the stock market.

A better way to have put the question is would the stock market be a buy right now if it were trading at discount to fair value? I think the answer to that question might possibly be yes. However, with the stock market in a massive bubble and having such a pervasive influence over the economy, the coronavirus may very well be the catalyst that pops the stock market bubble, takes the stock market to fair value and below, and sends the economy down with it.

It may be that stock market investors will stay cautious through the summer if they realize that a second more virulent wave may come in the fall. The US military is preparing for a second wave of coronavirus cases by next winter.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... d09060460c

[aeden]

We tend to call it the scofield deceptions since these sheep will not except was was already written.
Same guy today who divorced wife and teaches corrupted promises to events.
Its been evident since the 1940's
A setup to events they simply deny.