IMHO, I think that the CCP would wait for serious domestic troubles in the US before moving. This could be trouble with our upcoming election or exchanging fire with Iranians, or a combination of the two.I don't think this is true at all. Politicians in the loony left
might want to stay out of it, but both Republicans and Democrats would
demand an immediate response, whether in the Senate or the White
House. It's possible that we'd be at war within six hours, no matter
who is president.
However, I think a far more interesting question is: What would Japan
do if the CCP attacks Taiwan?
They would think that we were completely distracted and then strike. I would say they would move towards Taiwan first, but be ready for a full scale war at that time. They would hope that we would allow them to deal with Taiwan as an internal affair, then if/when we don't (or if the Japanese interfere), then they would pull out all the stops.
The Chinese are mainly a land power. They would want to use it everywhere they could, so as to dilute the strength the US could send to any one point. So they would attack into Vietnam and Korea the instant a wider war became "necessary" (in their eyes), because other powers (US, Japan) have interfered with "internal" matters. This would also help them sell the wider war to their population.
To get at Japan, China has to go through Korea. No way they would try to launch an invasion of Japan from Shanghai area towards Kyushu with South Korea in their rear.
The telltale signs would be the Chinese start to "help" the North Korean population, which would mean feeding the North Korean army, so that it is in better shape to help out with the conquest of South Korea.
The US would try to help South Korea first, Taiwan second, and Vietnam third in such a situation. The US has the following divisions that could be sent to the Pacific: 2 Marine division equivalents, the Army's 82d and 101st (air transportable but lacking heavy equipment), the 2d (Korea) and the 25th. Additional forces, say the 1st, 4th, 1st Armor and 1st Cav, would take months to get to Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Vietnam.
So to help Taiwan, the Nationalist would get help from say 1 Marine Division, 2 Airborne and 1 Army infantry division (the 25th), at the most.
The CCP Army has roughly 40 division equivalents. Their Airforce is sufficient to have superiority over the straights to Taiwan temporarily.
The Chinese have the ability to sink the American Carriers. This is the Chinese DF-26, which the USN has admitted it cannot counter. Read about it here:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... apon-85261
I am glad that John is optimistic that we would get into it right away when the Chinese start shooting. Any delay would be extremely bad for our side.