Financial topics

[John]

"A black man’s death was blamed on democrat cops in a democrat city
with a democrat police chief and a democrat mayor in a democrat state
with a democrat governor. Then democrats got together and burned
democrat cities. The democrat mayors and police chiefs allowed black
businesses and neighborhoods to burn. Black people died in the riots."

It's all Trump's fault.

[Higgenbotham]

The important question was whether stocks had left the bubble regime for good. My best guess is that Thursday and Friday settled that question and stocks have reentered the bubble regime. There will be many different opinions on that question. This weekend some may say there is divergence between the Nasdaq and the other indices and that is bearish. Fair enough. Others may say the Nasdaq will lead everything else higher. Maybe the simplest way to look at it is did the "stimulus" effect the patient (stock market) enough to bring the bubble back. Unfortunately for me, it appears that it has. And we know from previous examples that once a stimulus that was larger than the previous stimulus does in fact take effect, the result is a faster and larger bubble along with (later) a steeper crash. We've seen it several times since 2018.



So here the first blue line is the effect of the Trump tax cuts. The market went into a bubble and then the bubble very suddenly collapsed (first red line). Many thought the bubble was over at that point (I didn't).

After that, Powell attempted to reduce the Fed's balance sheet and the market very suddenly collapsed once again (second red line). Many thought the bubble was over at that point (I did too). The Fed did the much discussed pivot (second blue line) saying they would no longer reduce their balance sheet, but the real action was when the repo markets froze and the Fed restarted QE (third blue line). The market collapsed when the coronoavirus hit (third red line) and now the Fed has countered with an absolutely massive and probably illegal buying program where they have admittedly crossed "red lines" by buying corporate junk bonds, along with massive government stimulus like paying the unemployed more than they made when they were employed (fourth blue line).

[vincecate]

"A black man’s death was blamed on democrat cops in a democrat city
with a democrat police chief and a democrat mayor in a democrat state
with a democrat governor. Then democrats got together and burned
democrat cities. The democrat mayors and police chiefs allowed black
businesses and neighborhoods to burn. Black people died in the riots."

It's all Trump's fault.

Well put. I wonder as people come out and see the businesses they used to run, work at, or shop at destroyed if some of them will secretly switch to voting Republican. Interesting times for sure.

[Higgenbotham]

** 05-Jun-2020 World View: Hydroxychloroquine 'science' scam

A perfect example of what you've learned has emerged in the last 24
hours. After Donald Trump spoke hopefully about the drug
hydroxychloroquine, and announced that he had been taking it himself,
the mainstream media immediately rushed to publicize and push a
"study" that showed that hydroxychloroquine was useless and dangerous,
ignoring a great deal of anecdotal evidence.

So now it suddenly turns out that this so-called "scientific study"
was invalid and may have simply been a hoax.

Yes, this is exactly what I'm talking about. The elites have repeatedly tried to latch onto anything Trump says and cast him as a non-elite who just doesn't understand the things that their superiority allows them to understand. The subject matter would be anything that can't be conclusively settled within the time frame that they want to take control of the debate (as in during the election campaign) like global warming or hydroxychloroquine (if Trump proves to be right about hydroxychloroquine after the election they don't care). They don't dare go so far as to say that Trump is latching onto "conspiracy theories" but they try to make that connection in the minds of their audience. For example, after Trump mentions hydroxychloroquine, they may bombard their audience with articles that refer to the "alternative treatment conspiracy theories" or some such language to try to draw the connection.

[vincecate]

And we know from previous examples that once a stimulus that was larger than the previous stimulus does in fact take effect, the result is a faster and larger bubble along with (later) a steeper crash. We've seen it several times since 2018.

If the Fed can lower interest rates then they can push P/E higher. This time there was not much room to lower rates. This time interest rates are already below the inflation rate. I don't think it will work the way it has in the past this time. People expect "print money and stocks go up" but if we start to get inflation then the PE ratio has to go down.

In 2009 people could believe the Fed was buying bonds temporarily and that future "Quantitative Tightening" would undo it. I don't think the market expects that the money printing is temporary this time since they now realize it was not last time.

I still think we are getting a crash and will hold onto my puts but it might be Sept before we get the crash.

[aeden]

Yes we seen the rise of it as identity politics, is a term coined by the Combahee River Collective in 1977.
The earlier notes cover the walk through the institutions.
GD is a very good framework for the net ongoing results as GDD measures the results.
Another generation will learn the same mistakes.
We have just dialed in the points they wish to ignore.
Consequences.

Pretext to what these current extortion's and manipulations.

Some of us went throught thought camps in the mid eighties.

To bad they ignored Hayek and Demming.

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dobbi ... forces.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GdtFryY06M

[Higgenbotham]

I've often stated that the Fed counterfeits money. At the same time, you will hear conventional analysts say that the Fed issues more debt. Why the difference?

The difference comes in with regard to what the Fed is buying. If the Fed is buying short term t-bills or the most pristine corporate debt, that would not qualify as counterfeiting in my opinion. But that's not what the Fed is doing, at least not exclusively. If the Fed is buying corporate junk bonds, as they have been doing, without the Fed in the market that debt may be worth pennies on the dollar or may be worthless. If the Fed is buying that debt for more than what that same debt would sell for on the free market in the absence of the Fed's existence, the Fed is in fact counterfeiting money to buy that debt, in my opinion.

My analogy would be if you have a closet full of lightly worn clothing from the 80s that you can't sell on Ebay for more than about a buck or two apiece but the Fed comes along and offers you new department store prices for all of that old clothing, pays you for it, and puts it on their balance sheet for the price they paid, have they counterfeited money?

[aeden]

We termed equity clearly and appropriation other than contract.
They are stuck in simple terms such as natural law.
Further, natural law assumes that all people want to live "good and innocent" lives.

[Higgenbotham]

I've often stated that the Fed counterfeits money. At the same time, you will hear conventional analysts say that the Fed issues more debt. Why the difference?

The difference comes in with regard to what the Fed is buying. If the Fed is buying short term t-bills or the most pristine corporate debt, that would not qualify as counterfeiting in my opinion. But that's not what the Fed is doing, at least not exclusively. If the Fed is buying corporate junk bonds, as they have been doing, without the Fed in the market that debt may be worth pennies on the dollar or may be worthless. If the Fed is buying that debt for more than what that same debt would sell for on the free market in the absence of the Fed's existence, the Fed is in fact counterfeiting money to buy that debt, in my opinion.

My analogy would be if you have a closet full of lightly worn clothing from the 80s that you can't sell on Ebay for more than about a buck or two apiece but the Fed comes along and offers you new department store prices for all of that old clothing, pays you for it, and puts it on their balance sheet for the price they paid, have they counterfeited money?

For more information about the Fed buying junk bonds,

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/investin ... index.html

Note that the Fed announces, markets react, then they buy. Who benefits? Does this exacerbate income inequality?

[aeden]

No, opportunity cost in my assessment. Horse to water as to winners and losers in Keynes beauty pageant in essential commodity trade.
Institutional bias fodder for the politics of envy cults.

America's deep state and national socialist bankers are desperate for a second wave or another lock down to finish off the fiat
sheep economy. This is a w2 against a 1099 reality also as before. At least they broke the social grid economic zones down. As we know it is past naive to not understand three gerrymandered zones maybe four in control the flows of extortion economics in just our social grid in BISH issues.
A deep recession isn't enough with tens of millions unemployed. Active measures have been ignored. The initial curve showed the weaknesses and consequences and is still ignored. The race is facial recon to halt street level crime and red circle the handlers now. As Reinmann pointed out the difference is null since point blank full stop as debt controls the outcome they proffer. If they cannot understand savers planting and locusts taking no dialog can ensue even a basic dialog to any civil rights.

We termed equity clearly and appropriation other than contract.
They are stuck in simple terms such as natural law.
Further, natural law assumes that all people want to live "good and innocent" lives.

This is what we wanted and waited for in zones. We noted it here and dated earlier.
The coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor says.
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan

In another zone we estimated at least five hundred have been disappeared. I will be blunt. A few we also noted in zipped up body
bags were still moving as the reports were scrubbed and conveyed here in file footage.
We are and will be surrounded by factional useful and cheerful covidiots also.
You cannot pass out enough crayons at the moment. We are between the Keynes veil and Hayek discussion once again
in active measure and legal cartels preservation.

As Arris sits down for a scotch at the end of another gruelling shift, he’s somehow still smiling.
“Things are going to be the way they will,” he says, trying, like the rest of the world to make sense of the mess, “life is beautifully chaotic.”
Between 400 and 800 deaths a day, the city can’t keep pace with the number of souls it needs to lay to rest. May 2020

As we said early and often the wall is between the ears.

Muslims agree by contract to have business disagreement solved by an Islamic arbitration committee, several of which already exist in the U.S. in states like Texas and New York. If the parties disagree with the arbitration, they might take it to an American court of law, which would likely uphold the original contract and the decision of the Islamic arbitration committee.
You let a toxin in and it is being leveraged against you to predetermined effects.

Votes do not matter.

In a few years they will still be invasion buffer states as the Mufti said we will kill 10 million of our own so the jiyza rate of one dinar
per year to be imposed on male dhimmis or they die. All we have reported is the Unix hairpin to sandbox thieves and decompile bots to erase firmware as the SIMM chips got infected and as we reported the wrong worm get you executed on your smartphone as they package the sheep and the democrats sold your ass to the highest bidder.
Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:12 am
Ya know bad intel. The Office is slushing and slow walking just as the internal demsheviks said what they will do to peel the layers.

The other zone will install another 600 million cameras.

The irony from very old reports from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Mufti was we will toss 65 million in the quest for Allah and his will.
No amount of logic will solve common sense. Sun Sep 27, 2015 6:31 am
How much did the mayor ask for again? Wake up children......

While the mainstream press mostly brushed them aside, this weekend's demonstrations were unfortunately pockmarked by violence perpetrated by deranged anarchists, who attacked a children's hospital in Houston.

RIOTERS DESTROYING CHILDRENS HOSPITAL IN HOUSTON pic.twitter.com/ZyfOr8msAK
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) June 6, 2020

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... k=sJSBhwd3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRWylroz1mY