Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Chinese military massing near Himalayan border
Satellite images appear to show Chinese troops, military equipment, and machinery in Galwan Valley

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3950625

Here it comes...

[guest]

history is changing - pretty soon it all will be gone, and the USA will be worse than a third world country.........just look at Seattle for example

[Xeraphim1]

Seems to me that if something isn't done the current government in India will be out on it's ear. Also worth noting that India also has logicsical support agreements between the U.S., Australia and France. May not mean you'll see either of the three in the line of fire, but it sure doesn't lower the chances of it.

Of course if China did "accidently" blow up some observing military personel in the middle of a war with India, that may bring NATO into the mix (or at least the threat of it). In the case of Australia, that'd encourage the attention from the British, if nothing else.

That agreement just allows each country to resupply in the other one. It isn't a defense treaty. And keep in mind that much of India's military equipment is Russian thus limiting commonality with the West. It's only been in the past ten years or so that India has stated purchasing US military equipment.

[Navigator]

I thought it might help explain my points of view if I explained a bit how I came to Generational Dynamics, and how my views align (or do not align) with this system/philosophy.

As a hobbyist historian, I found it curious that the major events in US History seemed to follow an 80 year cycle. 80 years between the Revolution and the Civil War. 80 years between the Civil War and World War Two. To me, things like this are not chance.

I believe that at the most fundamental level, there is either a “Higher Power” or everything happens “by chance”. I think that if you don’t believe in a “Higher Power” then you believe that the Universe/world/mankind were created “by chance”, the so-called random events that would need to occur for life to exist.

Personally, I believe that there is a “Higher Power”. Furthermore, I believe that this “Higher Power’s” greatest creation is not celestial bodies or orbiting planets, but rather the History of this World.

So, when I looked at the cycles that seemed to be occurring, I found that John had developed a good model for explaining the stages of the repeating cycle and how different nationalities/cultures can be in different stages at any given point in time.

I was further enamored of John’s distillation of current world events. His daily articles usually had more insight into what was actually happening than bundles of newspapers and innumerable websites. BTW, I miss being able to read new ones every day, though I certainly understand why John has had to cut back.

I am in agreement with John over the next basic steps, financial calamity and World War.

However, I do think, in contrast to John, that the “other side” in the war will be a China/Russia main alliance. I, personally, don’t have an opinion on how the Sunni/Shiite thing will split in the war, as I consider both (currently) so far off base as to want nothing to do with either faction. I do have hopes for Iran to fix itself, as Generational Dynamics predicts, but I think it will take Iran’s involvement in a major war for this to happen.

One of the reasons I believe in the China/Russia alliance is my personal belief that Europe is not going to remain untouched by a major war between primarily US and China (or, as John predicts, between US-Russia and China). In fact, I think that a lot of the upcoming future war will take place in Central Europe, and that WW III will have a two-front dynamic for the US that WW II did.

I believe that God (the “Higher Power”) provides guidance and clues regarding what is going to happen next. In some way, I believe that what will happen next is similar to what happened in the last two World Wars.

To me, the First World War was about the destruction of the great absolute monarchies (Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany). The war saw their demise. There followed, for Central Europe, a period of near anarchy, of revolutions, coups, and financial chaos. And out of this arose a number of dictators who were far worse than the absolute monarchs; Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

This is roughly what I think will happen with WW III. The next world war will utterly destroy the socialist states. They will no longer be able to provide for their citizens. This is because the financial system as we know it will be completely bankrupted and unable to continue after WW III.

Even with the impending financial meltdown due to current conditions, I think that something will be done to keep it limping along until the war, and then there will be “emergency measures”. But a global war will see the world end up financially like the Confederacy at the end or Germany or France in 1919.

We have allowed the social structures that could compensate for these calamities to decay. This will lead to a post WW III period for Europe that will be FAR worse than the post WW I period. And the individuals with power that will emerge out of this anarchy, I believe, will be far worse than Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

As bad as this sounds, I believe it is all part of the plan of history designed by God. I believe that history was designed to fulfill a purpose, and that it has a culmination. In the end, I believe the culmination results in a “greater good”, but it will be an extremely trying and difficult period to experience first hand.

[John]

** 19-Jun-2020 World View: Russia and China

> I thought it might help explain my points of view if I explained a
> bit how I came to Generational Dynamics, and how my views align
> (or do not align) with this system/philosophy.

> As a hobbyist historian, I found it curious that the major events
> in US History seemed to follow an 80 year cycle. 80 years between
> the Revolution and the Civil War. 80 years between the Civil War
> and World War Two. To me, things like this are not chance.

> I believe that at the most fundamental level, there is either a
> “Higher Power” or everything happens “by chance”. I think that if
> you don’t believe in a “Higher Power” then you believe that the
> Universe/world/mankind were created “by chance”, the so-called
> random events that would need to occur for life to exist.

> Personally, I believe that there is a “Higher Power”.
> Furthermore, I believe that this “Higher Power’s” greatest
> creation is not celestial bodies or orbiting planets, but rather
> the History of this World.

> So, when I looked at the cycles that seemed to be occurring, I
> found that John had developed a good model for explaining the
> stages of the repeating cycle and how different
> nationalities/cultures can be in different stages at any given
> point in time.

> I was further enamored of John’s distillation of current world
> events. His daily articles usually had more insight into what was
> actually happening than bundles of newspapers and innumerable
> websites. BTW, I miss being able to read new ones every day,
> though I certainly understand why John has had to cut back.

> I am in agreement with John over the next basic steps, financial
> calamity and World War.

> However, I do think, in contrast to John, that the “other side” in
> the war will be a China/Russia main alliance. I, personally,
> don’t have an opinion on how the Sunni/Shiite thing will split in
> the war, as I consider both (currently) so far off base as to want
> nothing to do with either faction. I do have hopes for Iran to
> fix itself, as Generational Dynamics predicts, but I think it will
> take Iran’s involvement in a major war for this to happen.

> One of the reasons I believe in the China/Russia alliance is my
> personal belief that Europe is not going to remain untouched by a
> major war between primarily US and China (or, as John predicts,
> between US-Russia and China). In fact, I think that a lot of the
> upcoming future war will take place in Central Europe, and that WW
> III will have a two-front dynamic for the US that WW II did.

> I believe that God (the “Higher Power”) provides guidance and
> clues regarding what is going to happen next. In some way, I
> believe that what will happen next is similar to what happened in
> the last two World Wars.

> To me, the First World War was about the destruction of the great
> absolute monarchies (Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany). The
> war saw their demise. There followed, for Central Europe, a
> period of near anarchy, of revolutions, coups, and financial
> chaos. And out of this arose a number of dictators who were far
> worse than the absolute monarchs; Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

> This is roughly what I think will happen with WW III. The next
> world war will utterly destroy the socialist states. They will no
> longer be able to provide for their citizens. This is because the
> financial system as we know it will be completely bankrupted and
> unable to continue after WW III.

> Even with the impending financial meltdown due to current
> conditions, I think that something will be done to keep it limping
> along until the war, and then there will be “emergency
> measures”. But a global war will see the world end up financially
> like the Confederacy at the end or Germany or France in 1919.

> We have allowed the social structures that could compensate for
> these calamities to decay. This will lead to a post WW III period
> for Europe that will be FAR worse than the post WW I period. And
> the individuals with power that will emerge out of this anarchy, I
> believe, will be far worse than Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

> As bad as this sounds, I believe it is all part of the plan of
> history designed by God. I believe that history was designed to
> fulfill a purpose, and that it has a culmination. In the end, I
> believe the culmination results in a “greater good”, but it will
> be an extremely trying and difficult period to experience first
> hand.

Interesting.

But there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Russia and China
will be allied in a generational crisis war. As I've written before,
the Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated
the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all
the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that
China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact,
Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as
the 1960s.

Furthermore, China is Pakistan's "all-weather friend," whose
friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." And India
will be fighting a two-front war with Pakistan and China.

China is very closely allied with Pakistan, which is very closely
allied with the Sunni states. China and India are bitter enemies, as
are Pakistan and India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and
India is very closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied
with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680.
Connecting the dots, the US is going to be allied with India, Russia
and Iran, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If
that seems surprising, remember that Russia was our bitter enemy
before WW II, was our ally during WW II, and was our bitter enemy
after WW II, so you can't judge from today's political alignments how
nations will act when they're facing an existential crisis in the form
of a generational crisis war.

If China and Russia are allied today, it's purely ephemeral and
political. They're particularly allied in the United Nations, because
they're both committing international crimes by illegal annexations,
and then supporting each other in the Security Council. This is honor
among thieves, but it won't last the first shot being fired.

[Navigator]

John,

I certainly respect your opinions and point of view. Frankly, it would be much better for us if Russia was an ally. We will shortly find out what will happen.

[Guest]

history is changing - pretty soon it all will be gone, and the USA will be worse than a third world country.........just look at Seattle for example

Given that a lot of cities, like Los Angeles for example, are literally boarded up and "store closing" and "for lease" signs are starting to proliferate everywhere, and add to that the recent changes in public and media sentiment towards feeling that theft and vandalism are justified methods of protesting, and that unemployment may stay high for a number of years, and that urban crime rates are up 250% aside from the sanctioned vandalism, well, living in a city is looking really bad right now for a ton of reasons overlooked here. Property values are plummeting in Los Angeles and going up up up in the rural area I moved to, where you'd never know there was a pandemic, or unemployment issues, or any of the other issues plaguing cities right now and for the foreseeable future. My real estate agent was just telling me today that he's gotten swamped this week by people desperate to escape Los Angeles immediately.

[Micky d]

In 2020, returning to the city for the most efficient and effective professionals is an unlikely scenario, no matter what liberals wish to believe. Talent is global and cities are repulsive collectives of the worse that humanity has to offer and now they are disease filled.

When city folk look out from their 9th floor walk up upon the streets littered with refuse and the retched masses yearning to breath free their thoughts return to those idyllic scenes of country life from movies and childhood vacations. Add in a pandemic, societal unrest and rioting, the ever widening political divide and the decrepitude of the crumbling city infrastructure and it's no wonder people might be searching Zillow. People vote with their feet. If cities lose them to other smaller burbs or to the country itself it is merely the reverse of 400 years of country folk relocating to the city for opportunity. The internet has become the great leveler and people can now choose the cesspool or the river-glen. What would you pick?

[Guest]

Over the past decade or so, the trend was away from the suburbs and rural areas and into the cities. Millennials have few kids and wanted to be able to walk to their yoga classes and blogging jobs we were told

Now you will see that trend reverse. Work from home will be more broadly accepted. Personal space is more important than being able to get a soy latte 1 within a block of your apartment. Cities will become more dangerous and companies leave, police budgets get slashed and cops increasingly choose to look the other way on crime, because they don’t want to be fired and prosecuted if they have to use force.

There had been a gradual shift out of the mega-cities even before the virus. The taxes, the filth, the homeless. (And now, "defunded" police - that will be fun).

I suspect that gradual shift will be greatly amplified as more people realize they can work from wherever their home is. People are getting that there are a lot of options in America. Small and medium size towns with no shrieking protesters, or rioting or looting. Just peaceful daily life.

Will everyone leave large cities permanently? Of course not. Will a not insignificant number leave? I suspect there is a good chance.

I talk to friends all over the country. A lot of people are quietly re-examining their lives right now. Asking what is really important.

The lawlessness in New York and other large cities. That is a trend that is not likely to reverse itself any time soon.

Big cities are an adrenaline rush. But are they really worth it?

[Guest]

In 2020, returning to the city for the most efficient and effective professionals is an unlikely scenario, no matter what liberals wish to believe. Talent is global and cities are repulsive collectives of the worse that humanity has to offer and now they are disease filled.

When city folk look out from their 9th floor walk up upon the streets littered with refuse and the retched masses yearning to breath free their thoughts return to those idyllic scenes of country life from movies and childhood vacations. Add in a pandemic, societal unrest and rioting, the ever widening political divide and the decrepitude of the crumbling city infrastructure and it's no wonder people might be searching Zillow. People vote with their feet. If cities lose them to other smaller burbs or to the country itself it is merely the reverse of 400 years of country folk relocating to the city for opportunity. The internet has become the great leveler and people can now choose the cesspool or the river-glen. What would you pick?

If you were just talking about COVID-19 that might make your argument sound; but civil unrest and war in the cities will cause any law abiding city dweller to flee permanently. You have been spoiled, lulled into a false sense of security in cities by hard mayors like Rudy Giuliani. Now you have cream puffs like DeBlasio and like Mayor Dinkins before him, a slide into oblivion will happen/is happening. Violent crime will affect ALL city residents, not just the poor. When upper class white collar workers become victims of crime, when they see their friends and family assaulted ... or worse ... they will move out never to return. American cities are ruled by lazy, liberal blue staters who coddle criminals and punish their own police officers. The Ferguson effect will apply. Police will pull back. Violent crime and criminal gangs will flourish. It’s all so predictable. The amazing thing is that riotous gangs are protected from avenging vigilantes by the police they condemn.