Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

There is a tightening in my chest. Why do I feel like we are on the brink of war? It's just a feeling, but it is sickening. I wish I could move to some faway country, but WW3 will be different from WW2. There will be no neutral Macau or Portugal to hide out in. I have a miltary background, but I am now partially disabled and unfit for miltary duty. I have become useless and worthless. I am no longer of any value to anyone. I have never avoided the fray. It is terrible to be useless and left out.

There's always the home front. And if you're unfit for that, is what it is. Don't feel too sorry about it.

We need you on the home front. Navigator has identified that as a major source of troubles. Read his book. Our cities are filled with lost souls who blame the country for their perceived grievances. They aren't bad, just mistaken. You could do much good. Home front needs people with courage and social skills. Lots of courage.

[Cool Breeze]

The West is finished. Leftists and liberal ideology have finally broken the back of the West. The weight was too much. Also, people on both sides of the political spectrum sold the country out to foreign and private interests. The immigration of certain incompatible ethnic groups into Western countries was a massive mistake. Today it is considered racist to even discuss it in the media; one would be shouted down. But in the future, after all the smoke has cleared, honest men will record the reality of what happened. The truth will not be lost, even if the people are.

You are correct, and I hope you are right about the truth not being lost.

You would have to be crazy to sign up to die for America as it stands today.

The feminist movement has destroyed women, American women are not worth fighting and dying for. They should be drafted to fight China. You wanted equality and "don't need no man" but need men's taxes redistributed from the government! Grab a rifle and hit that Chinese beach!

Fake news, fake President, fake election, fake markets, fake virus.

The Secretary of Health is confused as to how many genders there are.

Only the clowns will fight for the carnival.

Haha, well stated.

[Cool Breeze]

You guys forgot that I addended John's deflation->spiral bankruptcy->crisis->war sequence with the interjection of inflation at the crisis stage. Niall Ferguson also shows that inflation happens at wartime, historically. John is correct, it starts with deflation and we have seen that for various reasons, including the government crowding productive business out (via QE which doesn't work), and the middle class being ever so limited as the main spenders in the economy, so velocity does not increase, either. We are seeing that again for technological reasons but also it depends on what you consider (inflation and deflation are different for everyone). If we call it just CPI, ok, let's treat the subject again --- I have studied Van Metre and Brent Johnson and interact with them weekly, to boot. What happens is deflation and then a turning point to major inflation (compared to what we have seen in the past decades). This makes sense because what Martin Armstrong says and knows is that the rush to get REAL GOODS happens (for those who can't see the writing on the wall) late and with a major "madness of the crowds" phenomenon - once everyone finally can't ignore it - which is when all trust is gone from the institution handling the monetary policy. I'm already well situated, but the government increases the money supply even more to ridiculous stages NOT before, but AFTER confidence is lost - it's their last stab and as a one trick pony, it is obnoxious and too little too late. We obviously aren't there yet, but we will be in not too long a time frame (mid decade?). Confidence (that is, loss in) is what causes the inflation or hyperinflation.

The setup is deflation deflation deflation for many reasons, but big portions of "stimulus" which are hanging around, and will continue, are waiting in the wings to all of a sudden try to nab all real assets when the government, Fed, etc. all get even crazier. Velocity will finally meet its natural pairing with the increased M2, and you'll see all kinds of increased prices for many different sectors. It's the same idea that we talk about when "debt is unsustainable" but we don't know if it's 20T Fed balance sheet, 40T US debt, etc ... but we know there is a breaking point coming.

Class dismisssed.

[Tom Mazanec]

We have been having slow inflation since 2003, about 2% per year on average. After 17 years you get about a 40% change. Your "correction" was wrong.

[DaKardii]

A few statistics regarding inflation and deflation. Based on government CPI records, going back to 1913.

Years during which the dollar inflated by 5+ percent: 1916-19; 1941-42; 1946-47; 1950; 1969-70; 1973-81; 1988-90.
Years during which the dollar inflated by 10+ percent: 1916-19; 1941; 1946-47; 1974; 1979-80.
Years during which the dollar inflated by 15+ percent: 1917-19; 1946.
Years during which the dollar inflated by 20+ percent: 1917.

Years during which the dollar deflated: 1920-22; 1926-28; 1930-32; 1938; 1949; 1954.
Years during which the dollar deflated by 5+ percent: 1921; 1930-32.
Years during which the dollar deflated by 10+ percent: 1921; 1931-32.

Year with the greatest inflation: 1917 (20%).
Year with the greatest deflation: 1921 (-11%).

[DaKardii]

A few statistics regarding inflation and deflation. Based on government CPI records, going back to 1913.

Years during which the dollar inflated by 5+ percent: 1916-19; 1941-42; 1946-47; 1950; 1969-70; 1973-81; 1988-90.
Years during which the dollar inflated by 10+ percent: 1916-19; 1941; 1946-47; 1974; 1979-80.
Years during which the dollar inflated by 15+ percent: 1917-19; 1946.
Years during which the dollar inflated by 20+ percent: 1917.

Years during which the dollar deflated: 1920-22; 1926-28; 1930-32; 1938; 1949; 1954.
Years during which the dollar deflated by 5+ percent: 1921; 1930-32.
Years during which the dollar deflated by 10+ percent: 1921; 1931-32.

Year with the greatest inflation: 1917 (20%).
Year with the greatest deflation: 1921 (-11%).

Notice that our entries into both world wars were immediately preceded by periods of high inflation. This probably was because the money supply was being increased in advance so the war effort could be properly funded once hostilities began.

Also notice that we entered an extended period of deflation almost as soon as WWI was over. But the same did not happen after WWII. This probably was because in the former conflict we continued to pump the money supply during the war, but in the latter conflict we did not (except in the very early stages).

These patterns indicate that (assuming war with China is inevitable), (1) we will be entering a period of high inflation during the last year or two before hostilities begin; and (2) there's a chance we will be entering a depression as soon as the war is over, regardless of who wins and depending on how stupid/corrupt the government is.

[John]

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Wartime inflation

> Notice that our entries into both world wars were immediately
> preceded by periods of high inflation. This probably was because
> the money supply was being increased in advance so the war effort
> could be properly funded once hostilities began.

There are some issues with this analysis. Inflation during wartime
occurs because of shortages of food and other essentials, as resources
are reallocated to the war effort, and the government resorts to
rationing. It has nothing to do with the money supply, and could not.
WW I began in 1914, and WW II began in 1937. America did not have
troops fighting those wars in 1916-17 or 1941, but America was already
reallocating resources in support of our allies. Therefore, the
inflation you're referencing occurred during the war, not before the
war.

You seem to be implying that inflation will be some sort of magic bat
signal that WW III is coming. I know of no reason to support that.
If China, for example, invades Taiwan, and we just stand by and watch
the invasion occur without defending Taiwan, we would still be
reallocating resources to support our allies, and that could result in
inflation because of shortages in America. But at that point, WW III
would already have begun.

[Navigator]

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Sickening feeling

> There is a tightening in my chest. Why do I feel like we are on
> the brink of war? It's just a feeling, but it is sickening. I wish
> I could move to some faway country, but WW3 will be different from
> WW2. There will be no neutral Macau or Portugal to hide out in. I
> have a miltary background, but I am now partially disabled and
> unfit for miltary duty. I have become useless and worthless. I am
> no longer of any value to anyone. I have never avoided the
> fray. It is terrible to be useless and left out.

Thank you for your service.

You know, I feel exactly the same -- useless and worthless. I've
managed to find my niche of usefulness by providing the Generational
Dynamics website and forum. I'm still worthless because this doesn't
make any money, and in fact I'm a hated pariah (Cassandra Curse), but
even though I'm worthless and hated, I'm at least still useful for a
few thousand people.

I mention all that because you may be able to find your own niche in a
similar way. You have a lot of experience, including military
experience, and you even know how to find Macau and Portugal on a map.
That's something that today's snowflake children are unable to do,
since all they know is what they learn in Women's Studies and
Sociology courses. So maybe you can find a niche by educating the
snowflakes on the reality of what the world is like, and what
preparations they should take. Navigator has done this for adults,
but maybe you could find a way to do it for snowflake children, so
they'll have someone else to listen to besides idiots like AOC and
Biden and Elizabeth Warren and Janet Yellen. The point I'm making is
that maybe you can make yourself useful by doing something
educational, either online or in your community. It can make you
useful for a while longer, even if, like me, you're still worthless
and hated.

You are not alone in these feelings. None of us have any serious ability to change what is about to happen.

But even if we help one or two people, it is still a positive move.

John is right about helping young people. Tutoring for free or doing volunteer work where you can will bring you the opportunity to do this. Helping others, even just one, will help lift your spirits and allow you to feel much better.

Another option is to get involved in politics, even if it just means attending your party's local meetings. It gives you much more of a voice than just voting.

It seems to me that you have already done a lot of service in your life, and that you can help influence others. I wish you all the best and encourage you to hang in there.

[Navigator]

Here is a very good interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt, a widely respected economist, on Deflation.

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-tra ... rinflation

He points out that all of the Government bailouts and interventions are Debt Based, and drag us further down into Deflation.

The Fed could only create inflation/hyper inflation if its charter is completely changed. The banks will prevent this from happening so long as they have political power (this is because hyperinflation would eliminate all debt and destroy the banks). And right now the banks have a LOT of power.

Biden was in the senate from 1973 until he became Obama's vice president. He was a senator from Delaware. Banks and Credit Card companies run Delaware. You don't stay in office in Delaware unless you kowtow to the Banks.

We can think that Biden is pro-CCP Chinese, but we KNOW that he is in league with the Banks and has been for a very very long time.

[Guest]

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: The Inflation Religion
I remember back in the late 2000s decade, there was a guy running some
sort of service that purported to be tracking the "real" rate of
inflation which, as I recall, was supposed to be around 17-18% at that
time and which was supposed to be growing every quarter. This guy
posted a graph every month that showed this increasing rate of
purported inflation and how it was going up. People would criticize
me for being naïve and not knowing what I was talking about, and to
prove it, they would point to this guy's "expert" graphs and his
long-winded explanations. Some of those posts are probably still
available on this forum, though it would take a while to search for
them. This guy was charging his clients a lot of money for his
"expert" advice, telling people how to navigate in the inflationary /
hyperinflationary world that was just around the corner. I don't know
how long he kept doing this, but I assume that at some point he took
his money and disappeared, and went onto charging different clients
for giving "expert advice" on something else.

This sounds like John Williams. I think I started watching interviews with him in 2007. I no longer bother.