Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:34 pm
Saudi Arabia and Russia/USSR have never been enemies and aren't now. They're commercial rivals. Russia would be *delighted* to replace the US as arms supplier to SA.

Saudi Arabia isn't that worried about Turkey because it doesn't have an ability to project force at that distance. SA worries about Iran. Muslim Brotherhood activity is a lower level threat.
Saudi Arabia and Russia had no diplomatic relations between 1938 and 1992, and that was not because of commercial rivalry. And even now there's a lot of bad blood from the Soviet War in Afghanistan and the Chechen conflict, during which Saudi Arabia sponsored terrorist attacks against both Russian soldiers and Russian civilians. The conflict in Syria has only exacerbated that bad blood.

As for Turkey, you are correct that Saudi Arabia deems it to be a secondary enemy relative to Iran. That's because Turkey is a fellow Sunni country, not a Shia country like Iran.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:34 pm
Exactly. China's rulers learned their lesson and have no intention of losing their positions. Wars are unpredictable and rulers face the unattractive possibility of facing unfortunate consequences. Much better to try to muscle their way into getting what they want while avoiding messy uncertainty.
China's leaders learned nothing. They are actually more reckless than the Soviet politburo. Again, this is what is to be expected from a country which is currently in a crisis era.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:37 pm
You keep pushing this "Heartland Theory" and I'm not buying it. Similarly with petrodollars, it exists for a reason and despite several attempts no one has been able to change it. There isn't a credible alternative to it now or in the foreseeable future.
The establishment won't change these things because it doesn't want to change them. Not because it can't.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:47 pm
If by "more and more" you mean the total has gone from ten to fifteen, maybe. Iran, through its proxies, has killed more Americans than Saudi Arabia has. And that's the official policy of Iran whereas "official" Saudi support for terrorism has been more of a wink and a nod.
It's a lot more than ten to fifteen. It's millions upon millions. And that's because it's actually Saudi Arabia, not Iran, who has killed more Americans. 9/11 alone solidifies that fact. And no, the fact that Saudi Arabia approaches its proxies with a "wink and a nod" doesn't change anything in the end.

Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

Gonna have to agree with anyone who said the Boomers fucked up the whole shitshow. Here's a great vid of Boomer asshats in action. Everyone in this vid sums up the degeneracy, specifically the sexual demographics, and cluelessness when it comes to tech (Chill John, we know you're a programmer). Some commenters explain it in graphic terms I'll omit, but the truth is obvious. Everyone is here: the overbearing Karen cat lady, lesbian ally, gays, and otherwise weak deferential men, cucks, or ones who've thrown in the towel. Keep in mind they are running everything now, and we put them there. This was posted by a GenZ POC who leans libertarian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YidJoHjqws0

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

DaKardii wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:55 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:34 pm
Saudi Arabia and Russia/USSR have never been enemies and aren't now. They're commercial rivals. Russia would be *delighted* to replace the US as arms supplier to SA.

Saudi Arabia isn't that worried about Turkey because it doesn't have an ability to project force at that distance. SA worries about Iran. Muslim Brotherhood activity is a lower level threat.
Saudi Arabia and Russia had no diplomatic relations between 1938 and 1992, and that was not because of commercial rivalry. And even now there's a lot of bad blood from the Soviet War in Afghanistan and the Chechen conflict, during which Saudi Arabia sponsored terrorist attacks against both Russian soldiers and Russian civilians. The conflict in Syria has only exacerbated that bad blood.

As for Turkey, you are correct that Saudi Arabia deems it to be a secondary enemy relative to Iran. That's because Turkey is a fellow Sunni country, not a Shia country like Iran.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:34 pm
Exactly. China's rulers learned their lesson and have no intention of losing their positions. Wars are unpredictable and rulers face the unattractive possibility of facing unfortunate consequences. Much better to try to muscle their way into getting what they want while avoiding messy uncertainty.
China's leaders learned nothing. They are actually more reckless than the Soviet politburo. Again, this is what is to be expected from a country which is currently in a crisis era.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:37 pm
You keep pushing this "Heartland Theory" and I'm not buying it. Similarly with petrodollars, it exists for a reason and despite several attempts no one has been able to change it. There isn't a credible alternative to it now or in the foreseeable future.
The establishment won't change these things because it doesn't want to change them. Not because it can't.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:47 pm
If by "more and more" you mean the total has gone from ten to fifteen, maybe. Iran, through its proxies, has killed more Americans than Saudi Arabia has. And that's the official policy of Iran whereas "official" Saudi support for terrorism has been more of a wink and a nod.
It's a lot more than ten to fifteen. It's millions upon millions. And that's because it's actually Saudi Arabia, not Iran, who has killed more Americans. 9/11 alone solidifies that fact. And no, the fact that Saudi Arabia approaches its proxies with a "wink and a nod" doesn't change anything in the end.
This is very poor analysis. KSA does not sponsor the Chechens. They don't. Prince Bandar was talking shit with Putin. I honestly wonder if that conversation cooked up by them. The (very) few Saudis in the Chechen army disliked the Saudi Monarchy. Jihadis generally do. There are wealthy Saudis that do donate money to Islamic causes, the way rich Jews in America support Israel, but it doesn't mean that the governments sign off on it. It's not that simple.

The Saudi government was not behind 9/11. Bin Laden was an outcast. He had been for a long time. Da kardii doesn't understand Jihadi politcs. It's not monolithic; it never has been. Jihadists want islamic Republics, not kings or Shahs. The Saudi government is trying to keep a lid on homegrown Jihadis. The KSA are generally good at dealing with Jihadist blowback. Saudi society has deep levels of corruption and political patronage and tribal issues to deal with than stirring up wars.

Iran has caused far more trouble in the Middle East than the Saudis.

Tribalism ihas a much stronger pull in the Middle East than religion (when all involved are Sunni). It does. Tribal connections matter more. It is very nuanced and complex. Arab tribalism is difficult for outsiders to understand.

The USSR was an atheist Communist hellhole. The deeply religious and merchantile Saudis had no interest in dealing with godless communists. And the USSR had nothing to offer the Saudis. Nothing. I don't think KSA had relations with a lot of countries in the past, it wasn't bad blood but lack of interest that guided it.

You think like Rambo. You should have stayed at the monastery in Thailand...

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 07-Feb-2021 World View: Arab tribalism
Guest wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:23 pm
> Tribalism ihas a much stronger pull in the Middle East than
> religion (when all involved are Sunni). It does. Tribal
> connections matter more. It is very nuanced and complex. Arab
> tribalism is difficult for outsiders to understand.
I agree. I've been trying to understand more about Arab tribalism
for years, without a great deal of success.

As a major example, I've been trying to understand the tribal issues
related to the June 5, 2017, land, sea and air blockade of Qatar by
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt.
I've read and written articles about the issues with Iran, about
the Saudi's 13 demands, and so forth, but the massive blockade has been
going on for four years and the explanations have never measured up
to the size and duration of the blockade. It's always been obvious
to me that something bigger was going on, but I could never figure
out what that was, although I've always assumed that it was
related to historical tribal issues.

So my question for you is: What are the Arab tribalism issues
driving the blockade?


------------


** 6-Jun-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170606



** 13-Jun-17 World View -- Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170613



** 23-Jul-17 World View -- Kuwait expels Iran's diplomats as Saudi Arabia softens Qatar demands
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170723



** 25-Jun-17 World View -- Al-Jazeera may be at the center of the Gulf crisis with Qatar
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170625

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

In the future, any flame posts targeting DaKardii should be posted
directly in DaKardii's Topic. Thank you.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Guest wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:23 pm
This is very poor analysis. KSA does not sponsor the Chechens. They don't. Prince Bandar was talking shit with Putin. I honestly wonder if that conversation cooked up by them. The (very) few Saudis in the Chechen army disliked the Saudi Monarchy. Jihadis generally do. There are wealthy Saudis that do donate money to Islamic causes, the way rich Jews in America support Israel, but it doesn't mean that the governments sign off on it. It's not that simple.

The Saudi government was not behind 9/11. Bin Laden was an outcast. He had been for a long time. Da kardii doesn't understand Jihadi politcs. It's not monolithic; it never has been. Jihadists want islamic Republics, not kings or Shahs. The Saudi government is trying to keep a lid on homegrown Jihadis. The KSA are generally good at dealing with Jihadist blowback. Saudi society has deep levels of corruption and political patronage and tribal issues to deal with than stirring up wars.

Iran has caused far more trouble in the Middle East than the Saudis.

Tribalism ihas a much stronger pull in the Middle East than religion (when all involved are Sunni). It does. Tribal connections matter more. It is very nuanced and complex. Arab tribalism is difficult for outsiders to understand.

The USSR was an atheist Communist hellhole. The deeply religious and merchantile Saudis had no interest in dealing with godless communists. And the USSR had nothing to offer the Saudis. Nothing. I don't think KSA had relations with a lot of countries in the past, it wasn't bad blood but lack of interest that guided it.

You think like Rambo. You should have stayed at the monastery in Thailand...
The KSA very much does support the Chechen militias. Many of those militias are affiliated with Salafi/Wahhabi organizations which receive material support from KSA government-sponsored charities such as the Muslim World League. The KSA does not care whether or not these people support or oppose the monarchy. To the KSA, they are pseudo-indispensable tools that can be manipulated into achieving its foreign policy goals. From the very beginning, the KSA has been playing both sides of the so-called "War on Terror" (btw since you like pop culture references, think about Palpatine's modus operandi in the Star Wars prequel trilogy). It is a sick double game that has the potential to start World War III.

It is precisely for this reason that I (and millions upon millions of others) consider the KSA itself to be responsible for 9/11, and consider the KSA to be (much) worse than Iran. It is also precisely for this reason that the Russia will never fully trust the KSA with anything, ever. If those countries ever patch up their diplomatic relations, it will only be for a temporary period and consist of a fragile "cooperative détente" (similar to the current Sino-Russian relationship).

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow


Similarity between Burma and Washington DC

** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210208




Contents:
Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow
History of violence and atrocities in Burma
Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
The state of the world.
Infographic: Refugee flows around the world


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Min Aung Hlaing, National League for Democracy, NLD,
Sylvester Stallone, Rambo, 88 Generation,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State,
Washington DC, Nancy Pelosi, crew-manned machine guns,
China, King Solomon

Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

China is not going to attack Taiwan any time soon, though eventually they'll do it as a surprise 3-prong strike. Before that, they gonna build up their nuclear-capable subs, which will be the linchpin. If they attacc before, we'd take out the ones currently under construction, the new big boys capable of 24 nukes each. So they gonna wait until those are operational. One thing they ain't gonna do is repeat Japan's mistakes.

The US is stupid and has an easily discernible pattern when someone challenges them: They send in carrier strike forces. They keep them in all the hotpots while several remain on the two coasts to defend Pacific and Atlantic coastlines. Everyone knows where they are at all times. China isn't gonna rely on conventional forces to defeat the US, it'll be nukes instead. You can't protect a strike force from a nuke sub.

China gonna wait until they have plenty of nukes. They're ecstatic about the current nuke agreement between the US and Russia and want similar - so they can build unlimited numbers while the stupid US is hobbled with 2 agreements: Russia and China.

So when the carriers are positioned like they are now with one in Yokohama Port, two as show-of-force and one near India, China's gonna do something really provocative like invade the Kinmen islands. Won't trigger full blown war but will trigger the usual American response of sending strike forces to the area, like sucking the India one away.

Perfect stage set. Then they nuke the shit out of Guam, Yokohama strike force and facilities, the 3 other groups in theater. Guam & US coast fleets and facilities will be targeted by subs, Pacific theater and Yokohama targeted by a combo, and the rest handled by intercontinental. Of course they gonna keep reserves in case of India or Russia trying something.

Russia is not going to do anything at first, but when the dust settles and China is exhausted will come in and deal devastating blows to China as "our ally". They'll take advantage of a weakened China just like they did with Japan.

There isn't going to be the lopsided situation we had with Japan. China isn't going to make that mistake. We won't have a severe intelligence advantage or industrial advantage, China will nuke the shit out of those, and they'll expect us to do the same. But they're willing to lose 500 Million while the US is not and never will be. They make motherboards while the US relies 100% on Taiwan and obviously China will destroy those facilities. Our technological edge will fade or be knocked out completely.

The US will defend Taiwan at all costs, due to this one thing. But we can't and will fail the first strike. China knows this too, that's why they won't use a slow salami slice strategy with Taiwan, they have to strike and take it in one blow with no chance of US defense. We will be hobbled later on by a decrepit manufacturing and tech base. We make lots of memory and logic, but zero motherboards. We also have only one aluminum plant in the US. We are extremely vulnerable, and of course China will nuke the shit out of those assets.

The slugfest thereafter will include superior US airpower, seasoned fighters and brilliant armor command, but hobbled by reliance on tech. China will field way more troops and zero value on life. The US won't be the manufacturing war machine of WWII but China just might be, or at a minimum similar to Russia. They'll be able to crank out boatloads of shitty tanks and guns, the US may be able to crank out a few superior ones and not many planes which require secure complex manufacturing processes.

While NATO may aid us, it will be lukewarm just like they did in our ME adventures. I doubt England and France will deploy their nukes, fearing their cities turned to ash in retaliation. They won't see an existential threat to them, so will only aid with conventional forces and materiel and loud mouths. That's what China will calculate anyway, whether right or wrong.

Anyway it's not gonna happen soon, until their new nuke subs are operational.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Burner Prime wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:50 pm
China is not going to attack Taiwan any time soon, though eventually they'll do it as a surprise 3-prong strike. Before that, they gonna build up their nuclear-capable subs, which will be the linchpin. If they attacc before, we'd take out the ones currently under construction, the new big boys capable of 24 nukes each. So they gonna wait until those are operational. One thing they ain't gonna do is repeat Japan's mistakes.

<big snip>
And of course the Chinese leadership is living in some kind of dream world and doesn't understand the consequences of using nuclear weapons on US forces. Remember, the most important thing for the Chinese leadership is ensuring that they remain the leadership. Nuclear weapons flying around tends to make that much less likely.

China has a pattern of making small incremental gains rather than going for a knock out blow.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Burner Prime wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:50 pm
China is not going to attack Taiwan any time soon, though eventually they'll do it as a surprise 3-prong strike. Before that, they gonna build up their nuclear-capable subs, which will be the linchpin. If they attacc before, we'd take out the ones currently under construction, the new big boys capable of 24 nukes each. So they gonna wait until those are operational. One thing they ain't gonna do is repeat Japan's mistakes.

The US is stupid and has an easily discernible pattern when someone challenges them: They send in carrier strike forces. They keep them in all the hotpots while several remain on the two coasts to defend Pacific and Atlantic coastlines. Everyone knows where they are at all times. China isn't gonna rely on conventional forces to defeat the US, it'll be nukes instead. You can't protect a strike force from a nuke sub.

China gonna wait until they have plenty of nukes. They're ecstatic about the current nuke agreement between the US and Russia and want similar - so they can build unlimited numbers while the stupid US is hobbled with 2 agreements: Russia and China.

So when the carriers are positioned like they are now with one in Yokohama Port, two as show-of-force and one near India, China's gonna do something really provocative like invade the Kinmen islands. Won't trigger full blown war but will trigger the usual American response of sending strike forces to the area, like sucking the India one away.

Perfect stage set. Then they nuke the shit out of Guam, Yokohama strike force and facilities, the 3 other groups in theater. Guam & US coast fleets and facilities will be targeted by subs, Pacific theater and Yokohama targeted by a combo, and the rest handled by intercontinental. Of course they gonna keep reserves in case of India or Russia trying something.

Russia is not going to do anything at first, but when the dust settles and China is exhausted will come in and deal devastating blows to China as "our ally". They'll take advantage of a weakened China just like they did with Japan.

There isn't going to be the lopsided situation we had with Japan. China isn't going to make that mistake. We won't have a severe intelligence advantage or industrial advantage, China will nuke the shit out of those, and they'll expect us to do the same. But they're willing to lose 500 Million while the US is not and never will be. They make motherboards while the US relies 100% on Taiwan and obviously China will destroy those facilities. Our technological edge will fade or be knocked out completely.

The US will defend Taiwan at all costs, due to this one thing. But we can't and will fail the first strike. China knows this too, that's why they won't use a slow salami slice strategy with Taiwan, they have to strike and take it in one blow with no chance of US defense. We will be hobbled later on by a decrepit manufacturing and tech base. We make lots of memory and logic, but zero motherboards. We also have only one aluminum plant in the US. We are extremely vulnerable, and of course China will nuke the shit out of those assets.

The slugfest thereafter will include superior US airpower, seasoned fighters and brilliant armor command, but hobbled by reliance on tech. China will field way more troops and zero value on life. The US won't be the manufacturing war machine of WWII but China just might be, or at a minimum similar to Russia. They'll be able to crank out boatloads of shitty tanks and guns, the US may be able to crank out a few superior ones and not many planes which require secure complex manufacturing processes.

While NATO may aid us, it will be lukewarm just like they did in our ME adventures. I doubt England and France will deploy their nukes, fearing their cities turned to ash in retaliation. They won't see an existential threat to them, so will only aid with conventional forces and materiel and loud mouths. That's what China will calculate anyway, whether right or wrong.

Anyway it's not gonna happen soon, until their new nuke subs are operational.
In 2013, the CCP-controlled news outlet Wen Wei Po published a very damning article titled Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight in the Next 50 Years. The wars are listed as follows:

1) Taiwan (between 2020 and 2025)
2) Spratly Islands (between 2025 and 2030)
3) Southern Tibet (between 2035 an 2040)
4) Ryukyu and Senkaku Islands (between 2040 and 2045)
5) Outer Mongolia (between 2045 and 2050)
6) Siberia (between 2055 and 2060)

Assuming that the publishers of that article aren't merely saber-rattling, that means that we're in the window of opportunity for an attack on Taiwan right now, and will continue to be until the end of 2025. As of right now, my guess is that 4 chances out of 5 the attack happens before Biden's term expires.

Link to original article: https://web.archive.org/web/20131210183 ... emid-62404
Link to English translation published on Indian Defence Review: http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... ification.

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