First off , let me say that in overall general terms, I hope you are right about things. I would like to think that everything is covered, and that all of the current affairs are nothing but a major “tempest in the teapot”, and that our political, economic, and military affairs are well in hand.Xeraphim1 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:47 amI'm sure Ukrainians aren't happy, but I think they also understand. Getting NATO involved runs the risk of nuclear missiles flying. They might bear a grudge, but they'd do the same.Navigator wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:59 pmThere are multiple serious implications and repercussions of what is going on in Ukraine.
I’ve already discussed the Russian need to replace incompetent leadership (and planners) with people who know what they are doing. War illuminates who is and who isn’t up to the task very brightly. I would imagine that we will learn of some “up and comers” in the Russian Army very soon.
In no particular order (other than which order they popped up in my head while writing), here are some of the other things that must be considered:
• Ukraine was hung out to dry by Europe/USA.
In the end, the Ukrainians are going to hate the West almost as much as the Russians because of this.
However, I do doubt that, so let me go back through your thoughtful comments.
To this point, I guess it really doesn’t matter what Ukrainians think of us. The only problem would be if they turned around later and then stabbed us in the back, which is extremely remote.
You are right, the problem how quickly orders will actually be placed, and if companies like Raytheon have the manufacturing ramp up capability.Raytheon is going to make a lot of money. Stingers and Javelins aren't that complex to make so manufacturing isn't a big problem. The question is how quickly will orders be placed. Putin has been a gold mine for defense manufacturers and this latest invasion has been even the most reluctant countries wake up and start spending. Even Germany will be making its 2% pledge.• Europe has actually further denuded itself of defensive capabilities.
if Ukraine isn’t involved in a Russian aggression against NATO, like the Baltic States, there may not be enough anti-tank missiles to meet the new threat.
Of course, this is assuming the Russian Army can refit and resupply to engage in such activity.
My guess is that militaries will try to budget to replace the used munitions over 5-10 years. This is because ammunition is VERY low on budget priorities. I have even seen conservative politicians say that the US has too much ammunition, and that is an area where they believe cost cutting could be done.
Still, this is a short-term problem. Remains to be seen if the bad guys could take advantage of it.
Ukraine had a “kind of treaty” when the USA guaranteed its security in return for giving its nuclear weapons (which it had as a result of the USSR breakup) to Russia. It also had additional worthless guarantees after Russia grabbed the Crimea.Taiwan has a kind of treaty and it is almost vital for Western economies. Japan has already at least implied that it would fight to defend Taiwan and I suspect South Korea feels the same. Taiwan and Ukraine are in different categories plus it would be much more difficult to invade Taiwan.• The Biden Administration has proven itself “War Averse”.
What this means is that China has a pretty good idea that if it invades Taiwan, who does not have a defense treaty with the USA, the USA will not get involved.
My point is that a “weaselly” anti-war administration is going to try very hard to find an excuse to not engage, especially if it means conflict with a nuclear power.
Yes, Taiwan is much more vital to the Western economy than the Ukraine, but I don’t think this argument will make the “anti-war” crowd change their mind about actively engaging.
Yes, the Japanese have stated their intention to come to Taiwan’s aid, the South Koreans have not, but this will probably change with the new SK President. This could then lead to the eventual entanglements that bring the US in if China invades Taiwan, it just may be too late at that point to do something significant about it.
Again, I hope you are right, but we are in a SIGNIFICANT economic bubble. There is little to nothing holding up the world economic order, which is based on unimaginable and unsupportable levels of debt. Once debt starts to be called in, it will start a cascade failure of economic implosion.European banks are the most exposed (natch) so they likely will get some nice handouts from the EU. Russia can nationalize assets, but that doesn't mean they will get any use out them. For instance, a bill was passed allowing the expropriation of leased airliners but the lack of parts and maintenance will ground them within a year or so. And doing so will have long term effects like never being able to lease planes again. There may be a limit to the Pyrrhic actions that are taken.
• The sanction on Russia will have economic consequences for the world.
Oil is fungible and someone is going to buy it. If China gets a discount it will buy that and then not buy from Gulf states. Or someone else will.
Fertilizer may be a problem for a year or so, but Russian/Belarusian percentage has been more an issue of them having the capacity so why build more? Wheat will be an issue for this year but a shortage will lead the changes in planting. The US has plenty of capacity to go more; getting rid of the ethanol mandate would free up oodles of land.
I don't think we're going to see a bubble burst. Stock markets are the only place you can make any investing money. It's more likely that it will be more difficult to fight inflation since central banks won't want to jack up interest rates right now.
Of course governments will act to bail out whoever is losing money. We have been doing this for decades. So why won’t it work in perpetuity? Because it never has. Every bubble bursts.
Regarding fertilizer, how long does it take to increase capacity? Probably a couple of years. Wheat shortages will happen this year. Good luck with the politics of ending the ethanol mandate, unless we are in WW3, that isn’t going to happen.
In the meantime, there is going to be a massive food shortage, and that will lead to famines and other problems.
Yes, it has been arranged, thanks to idiotic Fed Policies required by massive government borrowing, that the only place you can “make money” is in the stock market. Luckily, the stock market has never ever gone down dramatically {sarcasm obviously}. P/E ratios are beyond unrealistic and I think everyone can agree that the market has changed from fundamental investing to rampant speculation. This too has a history of turning out quite badly.
[/quote]China will blame the US because it's convenient. The chance of war will increase only if the situation seems to benefit China more that the US.
• The economic downturn would probably have military repercussions.
The Chinese will blame the USA. This will greatly increase the chance of war.
The Russians will blame the USA/Europe, and economic hardship could trigger the “Mortal Threat to Mother Russia” bit, and cause them to want real revenge on NATO.
The US will focus on domestic issues rather than the gathering war clouds in the leadup to war. Chief among these are the concerns about Global Warming. Right now we need to be gearing up domestic production of every important resource and product that we might need in time of war. Instead, we continue to follow these asinine green policies that probably originated in (and are certainly heavily financially supported by) China in the first place.
Russia blames the US for being powerful while Russia is not. Taking revenge on NATO? The West has been pretty united so Russia really doesn't have a wedge issue. NATO is also much stronger that Russia militarily. It's hard to conceal that after the poor performance we've seen in Ukraine.
I suspect we're going to see big changes in Congress this fall. Most likely Republicans will take the House and possibly the Senate. That will put great limits on what the Biden administration can do. I suspect the US will start to follow Europe in realizing that energy stability is more important than green virtue signalling.
In the case of a severe economic downturn, the Chinese will do more than just verbally “blame” the US for its problems. It will need a way to distract their population from their economic troubles and focus them on something else. War is the best way to quickly unify people, quash opposition, and put the idea into their head of “taking it out on the people that caused this”.
In regards to Russia, Putin has to pin the blame on what has happened on someone other than himself and the Russian military. I think his best option is to blame NATO, which includes US (so I wasn’t thinking of a wedge issue).
Russia will need to really get into the rearmament and mobilization business to act on this. And I think that is where this will head. You can say that he doesn’t have the money to do this. I would counter that he can do a national mobilization, where everyone’s time and resources are the dictator’s to command. This is what Stalin did, and what Putin would have to revert to in order to pull this off. He is certainly capable of attempting to do so.
NATO’s strength is almost entirely in its airpower. If Russia decides to attack Western Europe, tactical nukes against the airbases could be a viable option. On the ground, Russia has to make obviously make VERY significant changes. And replace equipment. Again, a national mobilization would be required.
I too believe the Republicans will make huge gains in congress this fall. That is one reason why I think the Russians, and later the Chinese, are moving this year.
And I am sure that once war actually breaks out, the green policies will go away. It will just be that we lost a lot of time and opportunity to increase defenses and domestic production before that happens.
