Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

[Tom Mazanec]

Maybe it is me, but I never thought of GCs as "compromisers".

[Bob Butler]

Maybe it is me, but I never thought of GCs as "compromisers".

Perhaps compromiser is not the right word. Grey Champions built coalitions of folks willing to make the new values real. However, from the conservative point of view, the new values are not desired. Thus, a different idea of what a Grey Champion is?

George III, Jefferson Davis and Hitler championed the old values. George III supported colonial imperialism and the divine right of kings. Davis pushed slavery and clinging to landowner political power. Hitler was for war of conquest and prejudice. Generally, they want the culture to stay the same. They profit from the old values. They were champions, sort of.

They did not transform the culture, though. Thus, our vision of the role could differ. To a progressive, you are looking for someone who makes progress.

[Bob Butler]

Ukraine Changes the Face of War Forever
Every fried Russian tank and dead soldier drives home the point that superpowers can no longer dominate simply because they have more troops and weapons.
NICK GILLESPIE AND REGAN TAYLOR | 3.25.2022 3:30 PM
https://reason.com/video/2022/03/25/ukr ... r-forever/

This repeats my oft stated thesis. War is not cost effective anymore. Nukes, proxy war, insurgent war and it seems sanctions make it so in the Information Age. In the Middle East the US learned the every crisis lesson that wars are bad news. One should not put boots on the ground. It seems it is the Russian’s turn.

Will the lesson last beyond one generation’s time of living memory? We’ll see. Will the Chinese learn from other’s experience, or must they learn for themselves?

[Tom Mazanec]

I'm betting on "learn for themselves".

[Bob Butler]

Thrive: "To me it seems possible that if people could notice and understand how we keep generationally repeating our past mistakes, that we can purposefully NOT repeat a mistake one day, and cause an alteration in our trajectory. Your work is incredibly valuable in increasing our awareness."

I wish this were true, but in the seven years that I've been doing this, I've become completely convinced that people and nations NEVER learn from the past mistakes. In particular, the disastrousness of what's going on today in Washington, New York, and throughout the world is breathtaking.

John

While it is absurdly true that conservatives in particular cling firmly to old values, the above contradicts the idea of ages, switching patterns of civilization from hunter gatherer, to agricultural empire, to industrial, to information. Once in a while there is a big shift in the structure of civilization that cannot be ignored despite futile attempts by many to cling to the old. One of them is happening now. While war of aggression has traditionally been cost effective, nukes, proxy war, insurgent war and sanctions are attempting to change that. We are currently working out the details, and we will see what comes of it.

[Bob Butler]

The pattern that seems to be developing is that proxy war is weakening the Russian military while NATO is working itself towards preventing Russian war crimes. I doubt they will allow such crimes to continue indefinitely, while the problem is not to threaten Russia’s existence from the outside, not to trigger nuclear response. Right now with the Russian military weak, I don’t see them spreading the war widely and thus inviting NATO involvement. I don’t see NATO going further than the old Ukraine border. I also don’t see the sanctions going away while the war criminal remains in charge.

Seems way early to be sure, but that seems to be the way things are heading.

[Bob Butler]

There are a bunch of folks on the web looking at the Ukraine situation from their own unique perspectives. One has the Russian military spending lots of money, time and energy on nukes, missiles, their navy, projecting power abroad, prestige projects and not on quickly defeating a neighbor in a conventional war. They just emphasized different efforts, while Ukraine focused on the threat that turned hot. Thus, we should not assume Russian military incompetence, but only that they focused on the wrong things.

Another blamed the Soviet collapse on the Chernobyl disaster. The Soviet economy, never strong, could not afford the extra burden. They were glad at the time to pass the problem on to Ukraine.

Another noted the ideological Soviets had produce a lot of questionable performance. A faction more competent and practical had to take over. This turned out to be the KGB. Still, Putin has had a policy of quashing anyone who might be a rival. As a result, there is no competent person in the intelligence crowd waiting to take over. Allegedly the head of the oil exporting efforts might take over. It is another area entirely, the one profitable sector that has been kept efficient and profitable if dependent on the West. Still, it is a separate entity from the security crowd which would not accept an outsider.

Some have noted Russia is just a lousy chunk of territory. Too much cold and mud to really compete. With the failure of the ideological soviets, they had to cut corners somewhere. Not the military. Not the oil. In the end they cut education. It was just the one area where large amounts of money could be cut without short term effects. But what if the long term arrives? As a result the younger generations are not in the position to take over. The well educated people are also those who know enough to migrate to a better economy. Thus, a muddle is anticipated.

Some noted that Russia over the years had been invaded over certain oft used paths. The old USSR had controlled them all. The new Russia didn’t originally. Putin is trying to get them all back. Ukraine is allegedly the next step. After that comes NATO countries, plus Sweden and Poland who are considering this a good time to become NATO members. NATO does not want a direct confrontation with Russia, which in the near term would lead rapidly to a nuclear threat. Thus, a Ukraine proxy war and sanctions. NATO really does not want Putin to take the next step.

Another source looks at the Russian population problem. Population has been going down since the Soviet collapse. The people knowing the economics are a mess just cannot afford lots of children. They are about to loose the numbers to use the World War II approach, sending masses of troops towards the enemy. If Putin wants to regain dominance, he has to do it now.

Now a lot of these perspective might easily be wrong, but together they paint a more complicated picture worth considering.

[Bob Butler]

I ran into another unusual perspective, as above. This one considers that many if not all of the internal divisions of Russia were once and could be again independent states. Many have their own languages, myths, religions, cultures and identity. Some others took the brunt of Stalin's migrations, where a bunch of people were moved elsewhere so the ethnic slavs could take possession of the developed land. The bulk of the population has good reason to remember where they came from and dislike Moscow. For example, one eastern province described as 'Jewish' came into existence when Stalin wanted to force migrate the Jews. More common, independent states were conquered by the tsars and inherited by the soviets. Many of these states are among the resource rich areas that contain things like oil, gas, nickel and diamonds Russia is exporting to stay afloat. Moscow contributes virtually nothing in terms of resources. Do you think such sources enjoy most of their wealth going to Moscow?

At any rate, this guy sees a few resource rich provinces breaking off, dividing the Russians, and encouraging other provinces to follow suit. NATO could conceivably recognize the declarations of independence and possibly, depending on Russias situation, grant membership. The vision is a lot of states that can be dealt with through traditional diplomacy, none of them big enough to be considered a superpower.

Nice dream, another one which I will believe when it starts to happen.

[Bob Butler]

Yes

Then why didn't you just say that instead of speaking in riddles? I don't think you know what you are talking about either.

Because Butler doesn't.

First, it should not be a riddle. Russia spent lots on lots of things I listed, Ukraine focused on one. I said so clearly. Why could this not be understood?

If one believes intensely in one worldview, one sometimes has to block out conflicting worldviews. This doesn’t say much positive about one’s own worldview that it disables your ability to listen and understand. A worldview is not doing it's job if you can't view the world through it.

It also becomes a personal thing rather than an intellectual debate. When one cannot comprehend what is said clearly, throw insults at the person who can? If one cannot argue rationally on fact and logic, one shifts to personal attacks?

The above is all wider, of course, than Russia and Ukraine. If one is deeply into a worldview that cannot stand up to logic and reason, one almost has to use the above tactics.

[Bob Butler]

Public TV put out a very blue special focused on dictators, primarily WW II's Hitler and Stalin. I might be summarized as follows. They collect yes men. These care more about getting close to the leader in the short term, less on keeping their promises in the long term. The focus is on all or nothing, claiming all if they cannot achieve it, and lying if that will win power. If they cannot achieve the glorious victory, they will perpetuate misery on those who fail. They distrust their generals. The one place they gave Stalin credit over Hitler was that Stalin reluctantly listened to Zhukov even as he saw him as a threat and at times exiled him. Hitler got rid of his best professionals, anyone who cared to contradict his victory filled dreams. They also emphasized that dictators care not at all for human life, especially if their victory is denied.

The special give one the impression of how democracies beat dictatorships, but you can't help but apply the principles to Putin. I suspect this was the whole idea.