Generational Dynamics World View News

[Xeraphim1]

Lots to talk about here.

First, please realize that no-one right now has gone into a national mobilization. Not even the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians did arm themselves pretty well, and got their militia (Territorials) units into shape for this fight. The Ukrainian army has 23 Brigades of active duty troops, and another 25 of territorials.

I believe that Russia will fully mobilize and declare a war of "our national existence is at stake".

Its not like there are only a few people in Russia. They will put the majority of able bodied men (and women) into their military, give them basic training, and off they will go, equipped as explained above. They will eventually take out Ukraine, though it is increasingly costly.

I will continue in parts.

Russia has been able to get by with its current conscripts plus the professional army and already people aren't happy. Putin et al had to lie about conscripts not being sent to Ukraine due to the uproar. Can you imagine if Russia started recalling people to the army? They can't really use the national existence argument because there are no foreigners on Russian soil. I find this argument to not be realistic.

[Xeraphim1]

Now lets look at NATO.

Remember that Ukraine has 23 active duty brigades. Lets compare that to the big NATO powers.

France has 8. Germany has 8. Poland has 12. UK has 6. Other countries have 1 or 2, the exception being Romania, which has 10, but their equipment and standards are pretty low, so maybe worth 4 of western NATO. The Italians have another 9, but I have some concerns about them too.

The point is that NATO has roughly 1.5 to 2 times the active duty strength of the Ukraine. Plus, I believe they will sit on their hind quarters for the most part while the Russians mobilize and get ready. And, while the Ukrainian territorials were prepared for the war, NATO territorial units are NOT (Poland maybe being the exception).

Also, if you think Russian youth would be unmotivated in war, think about the youth in Germany and France. Not a lot of nationalistic fervor and self-sacrifice come to mind. NATO countries are predominantly older people too.

Poles will fight the Russians, as will Finns and many Brits. Past that, the "national will" of most NATO countries would be questionable. Including Spain.

Americans (and Europeans) don't fight like Russians and haven't for a very long time so measuring by ground forces doesn't work. In a hypothetical NATO/Russia war, the first thing that would happen would be a massive cruise missile strike accompanied by fighters and bombers taking out Russia's IAD network. Next would be using large amounts of superior fighters to destroy Russia's air force. Next would be to use air power and smart weapons to take out C&C for the Russian army and their supply networks. Russia couldn't competently run in invasion into the country next door. Do you honestly think they could reach the Atlantic?

Russia fights a WWII war, and not even a particularly good WWII war. The West and particularly the US fights entirely different.

[Xeraphim1]

The next point is that NATO has sent a HUGE amount of its ammo stockpile to the Ukraine. The estimates I have seen is that it represents 5-10 years of NATO production. On top of that, much of the NATO Airforce's inventory of smart weapons was used up a couple of years ago during the Libya intervention.

The question could well boil down to who would run out of men and munitions first. And that is generally the way big wars go.

The US supplied huge amounts of material to the Soviets in WW2. I would expect that the Chinese will ultimately have to do the same for Russia. Meanwhile, the US will be fighting both China and Russia while its industrial strength has in large measure already been sent to China.

America will ultimately prevail, but it will not be as easy as it was in WW1 and WW2.

Given the current situation, I think the Russians will fully mobilize, take out Ukraine and Moldova, and then keep moving. The Poles will put up as good a fight (or better) than the Ukrainians. Maybe the Russians will only make it to the Elbe, but will the rest of Europe have the will to fight a major war? IMHO, questionable.

Then there is the question of nuclear weapons. The Russians look increasingly likely to use at least one in Ukraine. If threatened with such an attack, would a NATO country just fold and give up? I think yes for many of them, Germany included.

We will shortly see.

But wars are always like a Pandora's box. You just don't know for sure until they unfold.

Yes, there have been a lot of munitions sent to Ukraine, but with certain exceptions it tends to be old stuff near the end of its shelf life. No, NATOs smart weapons were not used up 11 years ago and there has been a long time to resupply, even for penny pinching European countries.

Why would China provide materiel to Russia? Russia is more of "the enemy of my enemy is a useful tool". It certainly isn't going to provide stuff for free like the US did. If anything, it would be hoping that Russia falls apart since there would be some tasty East Siberian territory just waiting to fall into Chinese hands.

Again, do you really think Russia will call up past soldiers? To do what? Russia has already lost a lot of its modern equipment. Sure it can dig some T-55s out of storage (if they haven't been old off by corrupt officers), but what would Russia do with them? Its ability to supply the army has been shown to be a failure when it only needs to travel 50 km into another country. Every army in the West is better run than Russia's. And they often have better equipment since they've been replacing the old Soviet stuff with US or European makes. All of which works better than Russian. I would puts odds on Poland to outfight Russia by itself.

As to nuclear weapons, that would open up the Pandora's box. And most likely not in Russia's favor. You would see the sanctions cranked up to 11 and there would be many fewer holdouts. China would not be amused. India would have to bite the bullet and cut Russia off. That might actually get the Western intervention that Ukraine has been asking for.

[Navigator]

Well lets all hope that this thing is completely isolated to the Ukraine, that the Russians are done for, and that if they try to go to total mobilization it will all collapse, and we can go back to our normal lives.

We will soon see.

[Navigator]

Just saw that Supreme Court is going to overturn Roe vs Wade (giving women the right to have an abortion).

Prepare for civil upheaval in USA.

[Guest]

it is terrible to lose a son, but in 1945, at least 2-3 sons came home. Now, there is no one coming home. Unless it is in a cheap wooden coffin.

This also applies to China.

[Tom Mazanec]

Putin 'getting desperate' as war wears on in Ukraine, political insider says
by JILLIAN SMITH | The National DeskMonday, May 2nd 2022
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/p ... sider-says

[FullMoon]

it is terrible to lose a son, but in 1945, at least 2-3 sons came home. Now, there is no one coming home. Unless it is in a cheap wooden coffin.

This also applies to China.

A starving country without oil to transport. Irradiated bodies won't be touched. Excess men are already a big burden. They'll have to win or be forgotten. Without a wife or children anyway. Beyond the imagination of the peacetime mind.

[Tom Mazanec]

Russian TV Warns Britain Can Be 'Drowned In Radioactive Tsunami’ By Single Nuclear Sub Strike
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 02, 2022 - 07:33 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... sub-strike

Watch Ukrainian TB2 Striking Two Russian Raptor Assault Boats
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (Міноборони) just released a dramatic video showing one of its TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) striking two assault boats of the Russian Navy.
Xavier Vavasseur 02 May 2022
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... ult-boats/

Russia's Progress In Donbas "Minimal At Best" As 5,000 Javelins Have Entered Ukraine: Pentagon
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 02, 2022 - 04:40 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/russ ... ed-ukraine

And halfway around the world...
Kim Jong Un Warns Of 'Preemptive Nuclear Strike' If North Korea Threatened
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 02, 2022 - 06:40 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... threatened

[Tom Mazanec]

Tucker: This is why Democrats are taking us to war with Russia
2,378,317 viewsMay 2, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGvO8b-tiaM