Generational Dynamics World View News

[Cool Breeze]

** 08-May-2022 World View: China - Grave jobs situation due to lockdowns


https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/govern ... downs-bite

China Premier Li Keqiang warns of 'grave' jobs situation as Covid-19
lockdowns bite

Mon, May 09, 2022 - 7:04 AM

2022-05-08T074709Z2088867466RC2M1U96WXFLRTRMADP3HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-SHANGHAI-LOCKDOWN.JPG

China reported 4,384 new Covid-19 cases for May 7.

CHINESE Premier Li Keqiang warned of a "complicated and grave"
employment situation as the country imposes sweeping lockdowns to
contain Covid outbreaks.

Li instructed all government departments and regions to prioritise
measures aimed at helping businesses retain jobs and weather the
current difficulties, according to a statement late Saturday (May 7)
which cited the premier's comments in a nationwide teleconference on
employment.

"Stabilising employment matters to people's livelihoods, it is also a
key support for the economy to operate within a reasonable range," Li
said, urging businesses to resume production with Covid-fighting
measures in place.

China's top leaders doubled down on the nation's Covid-Zero strategy
last week, warning against any attempts to question the
lockdown-dependent approach even as economic activity contracted
sharply in April amid factory closures and supply-chain disruptions.

...

What's your take on why they bother with lockdowns since none of them work and they don't matter?

Northerners (re) establishing control of southern port (treaty) cities. No new virus is needed, just the ability to use the idea of it for political means. Perhaps large-scale Beijing 'bailouts' of private industry. A reversion to the mean of which China is insular and cautious with foreign influence.

Good call. It's clearly shenanigans.

[FullMoon]

What's your take on why they bother with lockdowns since none of them work and they don't matter?

Northerners (re) establishing control of southern port (treaty) cities. No new virus is needed, just the ability to use the idea of it for political means. Perhaps large-scale Beijing 'bailouts' of private industry. A reversion to the mean of which China is insular and cautious with foreign influence.

Good call. It's clearly shenanigans.

Shutting down exports.
Once again, like 2 years ago, if they're going to experience trouble they might as well export the same or potentially more.
Shanghai possibly challenge the October election (it's election year)
Shanghainese consider themselves better than the (brutish) northerners.
Both a domestic and external conflict in this shutdown.

[John]

** 09-May-2022 World View: North China vs South China

> Shutting down exports.

> Once again, like 2 years ago, if they're going to experience
> trouble they might as well export the same or potentially more.

> Shanghai possibly challenge the October election (it's election
> year) Shanghainese consider themselves better than the (brutish)
> northerners.

> Both a domestic and external conflict in this shutdown.

The north and the south have fought many civil wars with each other
over the millennia. Do you have any feeling with a new civil war or
rebellion is near?

[Guest]

With regards to the Chinese exporting trouble...

Does anyone have any idea regarding the standing of the Chinese navy? Specifically defensively in comparison to the Moskva and Makarov?

Xeraphim I believe had indicated that the Russians are not capable of building big ships any longer so I doubt they were cutting edge warships. However, it has occurred to me that the leaks about US aid in targeting and destroying those vessels could have more about showing China how tough cross straight actions can become.

I assumed some Whitehouse staffer that didn't understand violence was just bragging. If it was a strategic release of information I would be surprised and delighted.

[DT Subscriber]

Bitcoin is failing to do what its fans said it would
Cryptocurrencies have lost money despite claims they would protect against inflation and falling markets

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have failed to protect investors from falls in the wider stock market this year, despite claims the digital assets can act as a safe haven during volatile periods.

The world’s most popular cryptocurrency has dropped 29pc to $32,929 (£26,600) since the start of the year, failing to live up to its status as a "digital gold".

Fans argue that it can act as a "hedge" against rising inflation and choppy markets, because like physical gold, it is scarce commodity with only 21 million Bitcoins created. This scarcity means over-supply cannot force the price to come down.

However, despite inflation surging to hit 7pc in the UK in March, and the global stock market tumbling, Bitcoin has fallen to levels not seen since July 2021. Other popular cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana have also slumped, down 37pc and 59pc respectively. Meanwhile, physical gold has rallied 3pc to $1,863 (£1,504).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/g ... gniter-rhr

[Zoomer go Brr]

Bitcoin is failing to do what its fans said it would
Cryptocurrencies have lost money despite claims they would protect against inflation and falling markets

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have failed to protect investors from falls in the wider stock market this year, despite claims the digital assets can act as a safe haven during volatile periods.

The world’s most popular cryptocurrency has dropped 29pc to $32,929 (£26,600) since the start of the year, failing to live up to its status as a "digital gold".

Fans argue that it can act as a "hedge" against rising inflation and choppy markets, because like physical gold, it is scarce commodity with only 21 million Bitcoins created. This scarcity means over-supply cannot force the price to come down.

However, despite inflation surging to hit 7pc in the UK in March, and the global stock market tumbling, Bitcoin has fallen to levels not seen since July 2021. Other popular cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana have also slumped, down 37pc and 59pc respectively. Meanwhile, physical gold has rallied 3pc to $1,863 (£1,504).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/g ... gniter-rhr

Bitcoin & crypto in general has never uncoupled itself from Tech stocks, they’ve always moved together. This is one of the biggest negatives against crypto. Take a look at Luna.x for a real crypto bloodbath. I expect more pain in the crypto market is on the horizon.

[Cool Breeze]

It will decouple. It will just take a while. That's why we who hold it are long term investors.

[Xeraphim1]

With regards to the Chinese exporting trouble...

Does anyone have any idea regarding the standing of the Chinese navy? Specifically defensively in comparison to the Moskva and Makarov?

Xeraphim I believe had indicated that the Russians are not capable of building big ships any longer so I doubt they were cutting edge warships. However, it has occurred to me that the leaks about US aid in targeting and destroying those vessels could have more about showing China how tough cross straight actions can become.

I assumed some Whitehouse staffer that didn't understand violence was just bragging. If it was a strategic release of information I would be surprised and delighted.

Russia wishes it had China's navy. China has been producing ships at a quick rate and each iteration has been an improvement on the previous. We don't know how well Chinese equipment performs, but it should be at least comparable to Russia if not better. The larger problem would be the experience of the crews and officers since the Navy is not a high status job in China and there are still political officers on ships like the old Soviet zampolits. Both are certain to degrade performance. That being said, China is producing some very nice ships that (on paper at least) are similar to Western ships and they're pumping out a good number of them.

I do imagine that the PLAN is paying attention to the Ukraine war and seeing how hard it is to suppress IADS with Soviet doctrine as well as how armed drones can make things very difficult for ships in contested waters.

[utahbob]

This is a tactical and operational development. Even with encrypted phones, pattern analysis with satellite imagery can give you a pretty good targeting data. If the US gives Ukraine ATACMS missiles that can be launched out of HIMARS, the firing fan be stretched out to 90 miles (310 kms). One thing that the media focuses on is the dead generals, but the real loss is the staff that supports the general: his logistics and operations staff planners. Not a war stopper, but over time, the front line soldiers will feel the effects. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPNczJ7uTqI

[utahbob]

** 09-May-2022 World View: Putin's delusional Victory Day speech doesn't declare victory

Monday was Russia's Victory Day, celebrating Russia's 1945 victory
over the Nazi invaders during World War II.

Vladimir Putin has been describing his invasion of Ukraine as a
defensive war against new Nazi invaders of Russia's Motherland, and he
carried that delusional narrative through during his Victory Day
speech.

Putin has very little in the way of "victory" to crow about. Russia
was defeated in the Battle of Kiev, and Putin was forced to retreat to
the Donbas and Mariupol. Putin had certainly hoped to declare victory
over Mariupol by now, but after two months, the Mariupol defenders are
still holding out.

Western analysts had expected Putin to make some spectacular
announcement, such as a declaration of war against Ukraine, or a full
mobilization of Russian forces. However, those announcements would
have contradicted his previous narrative of a quick victory in a
"special operation," not a war.

Instead, he pushed his new narrative that after fighting the Nazi
invaders during WW II, Russia is fighting Nazi invaders again. Does
Putin know that this delusion is false, or does he really believe it?
I don't know.

Since the beginning, Putin has had the problem that Ukrainians have
historically been "brothers" to the Russians, even sharing the
Orthodox Christian religion. Even worse, many of the people living in
Ukraine are Russians, with family and friends across the border in
Russia. Kharkiv, for example, is a Russian-speaking city near the
Russia border, and the people there never dreamed that Russia would
attack innocent Christian Russian women and children in Kharkiv, until
they did, and they continue to do so.

So Putin's problem has to been to dehumanize the Ukrainians by
accusing them of being Nazis. At the beginning, they only accused
Zelenskyy and the government of being Nazis, a claim viewed as ironic,
since Zelenskyy is Jewish. However, as the war continued, and Russian
troops kept getting defeated, Putin had to expand his denumanizing
narrative to claim that ALL Ukrainians are Nazis who want to invade
the Russian motherland. Putin is also expanding the narrative to
claim that Nato and America have become Nazi supporters. It's not
clear how many Russians actually believe this.

Here are some excerpts from his speech:

"Today, as in the past, you are fighting for our
people in Donbass, for the security of our Motherland, for Russia.

"BLAH, BLAH.....We don't need to reguritate that stuff"

Glory to our heroic Armed Forces!

For Russia! For Victory!

Hooray!"

-- Putin speech / Victory Parade on Red Square
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68366
(Kremlin.ru, 9-May-2022)

-- Ukraine war: Officials will be interested in what Putin did not say
in Russia's annual Victory Day parade speech
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... h-12609293
(Sky News, 9-May-2022)

Two quick notes:
1. John you are correct that Putin is trying to dehumanize the Ukrainians. Seach his “Victory” Day speech and he does not mention “Ukraine.” Not once. They do not exsist in his world, they are just bad “Russians” to be brought back in to the fold.
2. No mention of the American aid to the Soviet Union.