Generational Dynamics World View News

[Trevor]

I know some disagree, but I don't see aircraft carriers as obsolete. They've never been an invincible vessel, with many sunk during the Second World War, and what are we going to replace them with? At least for now, they're the best way to project power far from our shores.

Russia's reminding me a lot of Austria-Hungary in the First World War: a great power on paper, but plagued with internal problems and corruption. It took them more than a year to defeat tiny Serbia and a big reason Serbia lost at all was Bulgaria getting involved on the side of the Central Powers. Serbia was a tiny nation, poorly equipped, yet held off a supposed great power for more than a year.

Out of the top 10 bloodiest wars in history, 5 were Chinese civil wars, so I don't think they'd hesitate to throw millions of men at an enemy. I think they're stronger than Russia, given China has stealth aircraft that are actually operational and the second largest economy in the world (1st going by PPP metrics)

What I'd expect is, if and when war breaks out, both China and the U.S. will go in thinking it'll last no more than a couple months. We'll expect to sweep all before us like Desert Storm and China will convince themselves that we have no stomach to fight and will capitulate after one solid blow. Unlike Afghanistan, whom few could find on a map, a war with China has far higher stakes and one we couldn't afford to lose, which most of us know. Hatred and distrust of China is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans agree on.

[Xeraphim1]

China and Germany condemn Russian threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/c ... ba8c3672f7

Xi Jinping and Olaf Scholz have condemned Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, with both leaders expressing their desire for the conflict to end.

The Chinese president stressed the need for greater cooperation between China and Germany in what he referred to as “times of change and turmoil”, and said both leaders “jointly oppose the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons,” although he stopped short of criticising Russia or calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops.

This appears to be the first explicit Chinese comments on Russia's nuclear threats.

[Xeraphim1]

I know some disagree, but I don't see aircraft carriers as obsolete. They've never been an invincible vessel, with many sunk during the Second World War, and what are we going to replace them with? At least for now, they're the best way to project power far from our shores.

Russia's reminding me a lot of Austria-Hungary in the First World War: a great power on paper, but plagued with internal problems and corruption. It took them more than a year to defeat tiny Serbia and a big reason Serbia lost at all was Bulgaria getting involved on the side of the Central Powers. Serbia was a tiny nation, poorly equipped, yet held off a supposed great power for more than a year.

Out of the top 10 bloodiest wars in history, 5 were Chinese civil wars, so I don't think they'd hesitate to throw millions of men at an enemy. I think they're stronger than Russia, given China has stealth aircraft that are actually operational and the second largest economy in the world (1st going by PPP metrics)

What I'd expect is, if and when war breaks out, both China and the U.S. will go in thinking it'll last no more than a couple months. We'll expect to sweep all before us like Desert Storm and China will convince themselves that we have no stomach to fight and will capitulate after one solid blow. Unlike Afghanistan, whom few could find on a map, a war with China has far higher stakes and one we couldn't afford to lose, which most of us know. Hatred and distrust of China is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans agree on.

It's hard to predict since news out of China is so controlled. I think it's safe to say that the average Chinese person doesn't have any strong desire to conquer more territory. Possibly Taiwan since it's been pounded into them for decades that this is a part of China. But is the average Chinese person willing to actually fight for it? Don't know. Is the CCP willing to accept the huge consequences of attacking Taiwan? Keep in mind that China depends on sea-borne trade for many imports, especially of oil, and most of its exports. It would not be that hard to shut down that trade since China's navy is essentially short ranged and is not capable of projecting force much out of land ranged air power.

Any Chinese leader has to factor in the consequences of having China's economy shut down and tens of millions of people out of work. Possibly for a long time due to business moving to different countries in response. In the 1950's this was not a problem, but today? It's been shown that autocratic leaders can make poor decisions with huge consequences (Russia), but China tends to be more conservative.

My own prediction, which certainly could be wrong, is that China will not attempt to take over Taiwan militarily anytime soon if the world continues much as it is.

[spottybrowncow]

Hatred and distrust of China is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans agree on.

But is this really true?

From my perspective, the Democrats admire and envy the Chinese, especially the way they monitor and control their population.

Didn't American companies help the Chinese develop the tools to exert this control, at least initially
(https://theintercept.com/2018/08/01/goo ... ensorship/)? Was this a practice run for using those tools in the U.S.?
Didn't companies and politicians make tons of money from the Chinese, intentionally and / or inadvertently subverting myriad U.S. interests in the process?
Don't the Democrats think they will steer the U.S. to a social system similar to the Chinese, with them in control here like the CCP is there?

But then, I'm probably just a deplorable conspiracy theorist, lacking the sophistication of the international elites, so probably I'm wrong.
I'd love to be wrong.
Somebody convince me I'm wrong.

[FullMoon]

I know some disagree, but I don't see aircraft carriers as obsolete. They've never been an invincible vessel, with many sunk during the Second World War, and what are we going to replace them with? At least for now, they're the best way to project power far from our shores.

Russia's reminding me a lot of Austria-Hungary in the First World War: a great power on paper, but plagued with internal problems and corruption. It took them more than a year to defeat tiny Serbia and a big reason Serbia lost at all was Bulgaria getting involved on the side of the Central Powers. Serbia was a tiny nation, poorly equipped, yet held off a supposed great power for more than a year.

Out of the top 10 bloodiest wars in history, 5 were Chinese civil wars, so I don't think they'd hesitate to throw millions of men at an enemy. I think they're stronger than Russia, given China has stealth aircraft that are actually operational and the second largest economy in the world (1st going by PPP metrics)

What I'd expect is, if and when war breaks out, both China and the U.S. will go in thinking it'll last no more than a couple months. We'll expect to sweep all before us like Desert Storm and China will convince themselves that we have no stomach to fight and will capitulate after one solid blow. Unlike Afghanistan, whom few could find on a map, a war with China has far higher stakes and one we couldn't afford to lose, which most of us know. Hatred and distrust of China is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans agree on.

It's hard to predict since news out of China is so controlled. I think it's safe to say that the average Chinese person doesn't have any strong desire to conquer more territory. Possibly Taiwan since it's been pounded into them for decades that this is a part of China. But is the average Chinese person willing to actually fight for it? Don't know. Is the CCP willing to accept the huge consequences of attacking Taiwan? Keep in mind that China depends on sea-borne trade for many imports, especially of oil, and most of its exports. It would not be that hard to shut down that trade since China's navy is essentially short ranged and is not capable of projecting force much out of land ranged air power.

Any Chinese leader has to factor in the consequences of having China's economy shut down and tens of millions of people out of work. Possibly for a long time due to business moving to different countries in response. In the 1950's this was not a problem, but today? It's been shown that autocratic leaders can make poor decisions with huge consequences (Russia), but China tends to be more conservative.

My own prediction, which certainly could be wrong, is that China will not attempt to take over Taiwan militarily anytime soon if the world continues much as it is.

The world is NOT continuing much as it had been in China. They're rapidly going old school, good ol' Mao days. Draconian laws of all sorts trying to rapidly change society, and the preposterous zero COVID showing itself as proof of their ability to achieve absolute social control. They're laying the groundwork for semi-self sufficiency by torturing the population into accepting a much lower standard of living. They've been doing the prepping stuff for their country because they know only too well how vulnerable they are to being cut off.
Support will be strong for their "reunification" but getting any kind of Japanese involvement whatsoever will drive the population to strongly support anything they do. It really does seem as far fetched and improbable as Russia/Ukraine did earlier this year. They'll have to be desperate, to make the attempt brutal and fast in execution.

[utahbob]

Thank you Bob for the interesting perspective!
Please comment on the Chips Act whether this could will force their hand in decision making. From what I've gathered, it's something akin to a total denial of their ability to import higher end semiconductor and any technology or tools used in this technology. They'll be curtailed from military and industrial capacity almost completely? Apparently they cannot produce any higher end chips and import most everything related. Blockading the island would be a tit for tat. They're control of import/export from the island would undermine the industry in like kind until a compromise is found or a fight is begun.?

Full Moon,
Sorry for the late answer to your question. Life has been busy for me, from the Australian point of view and a brief overview: https://interestingengineering.com/cult ... argo-china. Biden has codified Trump’s policy on China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tochLfjWuM4. The communist party of China will do everything in its power to circumvent this. It is the law: https://www.lawfareblog.com/beijings-ne ... se-offense The actual law translated in English: https://www-gov-cn.translate.goog/zheng ... r_pto=wapp. It is mainland Chinese law enforced by The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and Ministry of State Security https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_ ... ty_(China)
I cannot predict the future, but I bet this will cause communist-controlled China great pain, and combined with other negative factors, mainland China will fall behind the US and the Western World in chip production.

[Tom Mazanec]

Russian forces pound Donetsk with 'greatest brutality', Ukrainian authorities say Access to the comments Comments
By Euronews with AP • Updated: 06/11/2022 - 13:43
https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/06/rus ... rities-say

Kyiv prepares for a winter with no heat, water or power
BySAM MEDNICK Associated Press
November 6, 2022, 9:05 AM
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... n-92754498

Live news: Russian-controlled Kherson region suffers power cuts
By Virginia Pietromarchi
Published On 6 Nov 20226 Nov 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog ... -to-russia

1 minute readNovember 6, 202211:50 AM ESTLast Updated 3 hours ago
Russian-installed Kherson authorities say no electricity, water in city after 'sabotage'
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-11-06/

[Tom Mazanec]

Hypersonic Hype? This Is Why US ‘Trails’ Russia, China & Even North Korea In Hypersonic Missile Development
EXPERT REVIEWS
By
Prakash Nanda
November 6, 2022
https://eurasiantimes.com/why-is-the-us ... c-weapons/

6 Nov, 2022 10:05
HomeWorld News
US jets in 'show of force' to Iran – WaPo
https://www.rt.com/news/566031-us-warplanes-iran-saudi/

Putin knows that undersea cables are the west’s Achilles heel
https://www.ft.com/content/0ddc5b48-b25 ... 60f4eab37b

Russia Says Zircon Hypersonic Missiles Can Now Be Fired From Mobile Launchers; Developer Says ‘Intensifying Work’
By
Tanmay Kadam
November 5, 2022
https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-says-z ... ying-work/

In U-Turn, Bulgarian Parliament Votes Overwhelmingly To Send Arms To Ukraine
BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, NOV 05, 2022 - 08:45 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ms-ukraine

[tim]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/25/c ... -bass.html

China’s Xi removing officials focused on ‘reform and opening’, says Kyle Bass

Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital founder and CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss China’s Party Congress, Xi’s removal of reformist from the politburo, and China’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan.

[Cool Breeze]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/25/c ... -bass.html

China’s Xi removing officials focused on ‘reform and opening’, says Kyle Bass

Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital founder and CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss China’s Party Congress, Xi’s removal of reformist from the politburo, and China’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan.

Kyle's been talking Chinese decline and fall for a long time now, just like he bought all those nickels for silver, just like he said in early 2010s Japan was crashing, just like he said Hong Kong was a disaster and the trade was anti HK and China 2-3 years ago ... another guy who after 2008 has done ... nothing.

And I don't dislike him, but he's like Gordon Chang with 5-10 less years of the media trot out of being wrong, continuously.