Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by aeden »

New Washington consensus is much less rooted in neoliberalism and consists of three planks.
Few paid attention.
The assumption of rational expectations is important in this respect. Agents are in a position to know how the economy works and the
consequences of their actions that take place today for the future. This implies that economic agents know how monetary authorities would react to macroeconomic developments, which influence their actions today. In this sense the practice of modern central banking can be
described as the management of private expectations.
https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_564.pdf
The view we noted as if/then to the taylor rule to leave the rate is the liquidation of the banks to be eliminated which was the whole point.
Do not expect the squad level avarice thought to even fathom what it meant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diTmxxmSf1Q
Last edited by aeden on Fri May 19, 2023 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Karl Rove may have gotten it approximately right when he said those at the top can create the new discernible realities but he neglected some things. It's not merely an empire; it's an empire of debt and every new discernible reality they create adds to the debt. So in that sense, they are faux, temporary realities.
Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis (Agora Series) Hardcover – November 11, 2005
by Will Bonner (Author), Addison Wiggin (Author)

In Empire of Debt, maverick financial writers Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin provide you with the first in-depth look at how the American character has shifted to accommodate its new imperial role; how we have abandoned the private virtues of personal liberty, economic freedom, and fiscal restraint; and how the government has gained control of public life and the economy.
I haven't read this but remember it being discussed. The only real attraction to me is the main title: Empire of Debt, which seems descriptive and clever.

As the summary points out, an Empire of Debt has additional downsides besides all the debt it creates. I think Barbara Tuchman best articulated the downsides when describing the big picture similarities of the distant mirror and the present and coming consequences for allowing the creation of an Empire of Debt.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:02 am
Barbara Tuchman wrote:
If the sixty years seemed full of brilliance and adventure to a few at the top, to most they were a succession of wayward dangers; of the three galloping evils, pillage, plague, and taxes; of fierce and tragic conflicts, bizarre fates, capricious money, sorcery, betrayals, insurrections, murder, madness, and the downfall of princes; of dwindling labor for the fields, of cleared land reverting to waste; and always the recurring black shadow of pestilence carrying its message of guilt and sin and the hostility of God.

Mankind was not improved by the message. Consciousness of wickedness made behavior worse. Violence threw off restraints. It was a time of default. Rules crumbled, institutions failed in their functions. Knighthood did not protect; the Church, more worldly than spiritual, did not guide the way to God; the towns, once agents of progress and the commonweal, were absorbed in mutual hostilities and divided by class war; the population, depleted by the Black Death, did not recover. The war of England and France and the brigandage it spawned revealed the emptiness of chivalry's military pretensions and the falsity of its moral ones. The schism shook the foundations of the central institution, spreading a deep and pervasive uneasiness. People felt subject to events beyond their control, swept like flotsam at sea, hither and yon in a universe without reason or purpose. They lived through a period which suffered and struggled without visible advance. They longed for remedy, for a revival of faith, for stability and order that never came.

The times were not static. Loss of confidence in the guarantors of order opened the way to demands for change, and miseria gave force to the impulse. The oppressed were no longer enduring but rebelling, although, like the bourgeois who tried to compel reform, they were inadequate, unready, and unequipped for the task. Marcel could not impose good government, neither could the Good Parliament. The Jacques could not overthrow the nobles, the popolo minuto of Florence could not advance their status, the English peasants were betrayed by their King; every working-class insurrection was crushed.

Yet change, as always, was taking place. Wyclif and the protestant movement were the natural consequence of default by the church. Monarchy, centralized government, the national state gained in strength, whether for good or bad. Seaborne enterprise, liberated by the compass, was reaching toward the voyages of discovery that were to burst the confines of Europe and find the New World. Literature from Dante to Chaucer was expressing itself in national languages, ready for the great leap forward in print. In the year Enguerrand de Coucy died, Johan Gutenberg was born, although that in itself marked no turn of the tide. The ills and disorders of the 14th Centruy could not be without consequence. Times were to grow worse over the next fifty-odd years, until at some imperceptible moment, by some mysterious chemistry, energies were refreshed, ideas broke out of the mold of the Middle Ages into new realms, and humanity found itself redirected.
A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century
1978
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Lottery Economy Update
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:34 am
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 14, 2023 12:02 am
I did a lottery economy update in the Financial Topics Friday but haven't done one in the Dark Age Hovel for awhile.

From a cyclical standpoint, there are a few things I'm looking at, but what had my attention Friday and today was the March 12, 2003 low on the 20 year (double decennial) cycle. I don't think that will put in a significant long lasting bottom like it did in 2003 but I felt it was prudent to stand aside, especially given the news. I would like to re-establish shorts on any rally.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Mar 16, 2023 1:34 pm
The S&P made a new high for the week this morning. The low this week was Monday morning in the first hour. Though it appears that way, it would not be reasonable to claim that it bottomed on the morning of March 13 just because of the 20 year cycle. For example, in October, the low was 4 days after the 20 year anniversary of the October 9, 2002 low. That was evidence that the cycle may be in force.

Anyway, now that the S&P has rallied 150 points off the Monday morning low, I'm getting interested in going short again. If the market is in real bad shape, it can top right here at the 0.382 retracement of the February/March decline. That would be very bearish if that were to happen. Another possibility is the crash cycle inverts and tops in another day or two. The manipulators like to play that trick and have done so many times in the past 15 years. The one thing that would lead me to believe that the manipulators have control and might be able to get a little more out of it is Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are up strongly today (about 4%) and they can use these stocks to push the average.
I'm starting a short position this morning. The S&P is at 3994. I expect the manipulators to create quite a bit of pain for shorts before the market turns down again. I want to be in the largest short position since the bear market began at wherever the top of this rally ends up being. So far this morning I've done about 1/10 of what I'd ultimately like to do.
I'm loaded short now. It seems reasonable at this point to say that the manipulators have created most of the pain that they will be able to. The bears keep promising "any day now" as they have for weeks while some bulls have recently appeared calling for new market highs. The pop over 4200 today should have cleaned out some stops and turned some participants bullish who were previously bearish, which would minimally be what the manipulators tried to achieve.

I took a draw April 11 to pay taxes (the market barely moved that day) and as of today am holding a little above the worst equity levels of April, even though the market is about 50 points higher, while adding to shorts. As of today's close, I have the largest short position of any close this year.

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

People like you are still living in what we call the reality-based community. You believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality. That's not the way the world really works anymore. We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you are studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors, and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.

The quote originated in a 2004 New York Times piece about the Bush presidency. The author, Ron Suskind, attributes it only to an unnamed "senior adviser to Bush," who was later said to be key Bush architect Rove (though Rove denies ever saying it). Back then, Suskind thought the words were key to the "very heart of the Bush presidency," with its catastrophic lies about Iraq and weapons of mass destruction.
"The quote has had quite an extraordinary life since 2004," Suskind tells me. "We understood it in a particular way in that time. I think we understand more deeply some of the innovations of those in power in that period in terms of separating public dialogue from agreed-upon, discernible reality. Now the loosing of those moorings has grown."

The quote makes Bush-era White House staffers uncomfortable because "they were all talking in this fashion at that time," Suskind says. "But they were very, very ardent about no one understanding the playbook they were using. Which is why the quote lives so powerfully in revealing what was happening in that era as well as revealing many of the demons that were loosed in that time, [which] really are inhabitating our nightmares in this time."
Anyway: I reached out to Karl Rove. I asked him what he thinks of The National repurposing this Bush-era rhetoric.

He replied to my email within 10 minutes.

"Not familiar with the band and the quote is fictitious," Rove wrote. "The only person in the room who supposedly heard this quote was the 'reporter'—none of the other people in the room heard anything like it, including its supposed author (me)." (When I repeated this to Suskind, he confirmed the validity of the quote but clarified that he's never identified Rove as the speaker. He won't say either way; the conversation was meant to be not for attribution, and that agreement still stands.)
https://www.newsweek.com/national-sleep ... ove-662307
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:49 am
And he was talking about the appearance on the world stage of individuals, and he was speaking to the growth of the population and the appearance of new individuals coming into the mass of humanity, and these individuals evidently are barbarians. They came too suddenly to be educated and for the knowledge of how to keep the Western way of life alive. And so these people have increased and now they have taken over power and so now we're in the hands of barbarians. They have no idea of how our society came to be and what is necessary to keep it going. And they're fiddling with the controls. You might think of a monkey flying a 747. They have no idea what they are doing and this is not going to end well with the barbarians at the controls.
We don't have people with a true background of education in history and economics and politics. They're all working on the spur of the moment. They're experimenting to see if this works and see if that works and I really have very serious doubts about the survival of our civilization under such people. I rather expect that a great crisis is coming when the grain will be sifted from the chaff. We're going to see a great separation. Some people are just not going to make it and the old truths are going to come back into fashion because of the need for survival.
--Hugo Salinas Price (transcribed from the link above)

"In 1987 Ricardo succeeded his father Hugo Salinas Price as CEO of Grupo Elektra. He is the fourth richest person in Mexico behind Carlos Slim Helu and the 34th richest person in the world with a wealth of around US $17.4 billion in 2012."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardo_Salinas_Pliego
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Guest

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Guest »

I don't recommend visiting Ireland...ever again...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Q_7RLnD8CfE[/youtube]

aeden
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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by aeden »

In other words we had been raised, for you not to wax cold, you must be on the move in the proper direction.
The willfull ignorance continue to exact a raising price.

Guest

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Guest »

Big cities are descending folks if you have not already left it may be too late. These feral animals have started running the streets.

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by aeden »


JCP

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by JCP »

aeden wrote:
Sun May 21, 2023 3:27 pm
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=KOVLOoF8
They will focus your concerns.
She has really spiraled in the last year. I hate her guts for what she has done to America, but I still feel sorry for her. It's hard to see someone in that condition.

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