Guest wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 7:17 am
P.S. Europe is heading for a massive social explosion. Mass immigration is about to bare its bitterest fruit. Europe is weeks, perhaps even days away, from civil war. I'm sure America will follow.
Something will emerge from the ruins. A piece of the Westerners that survive, and bits and pieces for the third world migrants to starve in.
It seems a lot of people here are predicting collapse, including me. Different collapses. Putin has military problems. Xi has economic problems. Trump has legal problems. You can see that all three are heading in the wrong direction. Autocratic leaders tend toward strange decisions, corruption, surrounding themselves with yes men and believing themselves above everything. Sorry, no.
Gaza is the new one. I am looking at recent history and seeing what has happened when various Arab groups have tried to take on Israel. They generally lose land to Israel every time. Why? Their territories of origin are different. In the Middle East deserts dominate and horse archers were the most common military arm. The common wisdom is that if you are getting into trouble, retreat. With speed and range, it is easy and prudent to get in that habit. In Europe you had forests and well armored infantry with melee weapons. You bore down grimly and fought. It isn’t about which group has the superior DNA, but about how their cultures were shaped by history.
I expect these cultural tendencies to repeat. Hamas will try to hide in their tunnels. They will give Israel the initiative and ability to concentrate. Israel will talk about saving hostages, but the priority will be diminishing Hamas. It will still be ugly for a while, but the result will be the usual.
The problem of mass immigration is real. Aside from people wishing to leave the autocratic Middle East, the cause of it is of course global warming. Conservative insistence on staying the same, depending on fossil fuels, has been too dominant. Sure, ignore the science if convenient. Recently we have had an abundance of fires, hurricanes, droughts, mudslides, etc…. Still, it did not become a crisis issue. It will therefore get worse. Not addressed firmly this crisis, lurking for the next one, the question is whether we will have an awakening as active as the 1960s. Is an active awakening part of the Information Age pattern? Will the various problems be severe enough that we will do something about it immediately, not just propose new values to be implemented later? Will the S&H pattern of turnings be accelerated?
I’m not saying the various problems aren’t pretty serious. Things are heading for collapse all around. However it is the conservative stay the same factions that are heading that way. Beyond that, you can see the traditional new birth of freedom.
Beyond that, though, is the next problem.