Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Navigator
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I don't think this is true at all. Politicians in the loony left
might want to stay out of it, but both Republicans and Democrats would
demand an immediate response, whether in the Senate or the White
House. It's possible that we'd be at war within six hours, no matter
who is president.

However, I think a far more interesting question is: What would Japan
do if the CCP attacks Taiwan?
IMHO, I think that the CCP would wait for serious domestic troubles in the US before moving. This could be trouble with our upcoming election or exchanging fire with Iranians, or a combination of the two.

They would think that we were completely distracted and then strike. I would say they would move towards Taiwan first, but be ready for a full scale war at that time. They would hope that we would allow them to deal with Taiwan as an internal affair, then if/when we don't (or if the Japanese interfere), then they would pull out all the stops.

The Chinese are mainly a land power. They would want to use it everywhere they could, so as to dilute the strength the US could send to any one point. So they would attack into Vietnam and Korea the instant a wider war became "necessary" (in their eyes), because other powers (US, Japan) have interfered with "internal" matters. This would also help them sell the wider war to their population.

To get at Japan, China has to go through Korea. No way they would try to launch an invasion of Japan from Shanghai area towards Kyushu with South Korea in their rear.

The telltale signs would be the Chinese start to "help" the North Korean population, which would mean feeding the North Korean army, so that it is in better shape to help out with the conquest of South Korea.

The US would try to help South Korea first, Taiwan second, and Vietnam third in such a situation. The US has the following divisions that could be sent to the Pacific: 2 Marine division equivalents, the Army's 82d and 101st (air transportable but lacking heavy equipment), the 2d (Korea) and the 25th. Additional forces, say the 1st, 4th, 1st Armor and 1st Cav, would take months to get to Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Vietnam.

So to help Taiwan, the Nationalist would get help from say 1 Marine Division, 2 Airborne and 1 Army infantry division (the 25th), at the most.

The CCP Army has roughly 40 division equivalents. Their Airforce is sufficient to have superiority over the straights to Taiwan temporarily.

The Chinese have the ability to sink the American Carriers. This is the Chinese DF-26, which the USN has admitted it cannot counter. Read about it here:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... apon-85261

I am glad that John is optimistic that we would get into it right away when the Chinese start shooting. Any delay would be extremely bad for our side.

John
Posts: 9295
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

24-May-20 World View -- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China

Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'

** 24-May-20 World View -- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200524





Contents:
Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China
Japan's pacifist constitution and 'collective self-defense'
The Chinese plan for an actual invasion of Taiwan


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Japan, Keisuke Suzuki, Livedoor,
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, William Lai Qingde,
World Health Organization, WHO,
International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO,
China, Li Keqiang,
Shinzo Abe, collective self-defense

Jeepdinger
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Jeepdinger »

In looking at a possible confrontation between China-Taiwan a few things immediately jump out at me. The following is my opinion based on the assumption that Taiwan will reject a political takeover by the mainland, and military action ensues.

China has had time to plan a military takeover of Taiwan at a time and place of their choosing. They have been building their military for years for this plan. They "know" that they will win. They are China. They will be confident of success. The only thing that would slow them down would be foreign interference. Hence the push for the Taiwan issue being an "internal affair" for China, and everyone else should stay out of it. This attitude will cause them to be overconfident and predictable, and therefore they will have many blunders and setbacks in any attack they make. They can blame the loss of life on the enemy and then call up or conscript from the large group (30+ million) of young, single males that will be itching for a fight. Chinese propaganda will be turned up to 11.

Taiwan also knows all this. They know the disparity in military power and resources is only growing larger with time. Look at a map, Taiwan is tiny in comparison to China. Simply put, available resources in a time of war will be more limited for Taiwan. I'm confident that Taiwan can punch above their weight, but not so high that they would be able to stop a determined China. Instead, Taiwan's survival depends on foreign support for weapons, troops, food, and any other materials needed to fight against China. Mainly because the war will be fought on their soil, so the destruction will be local to Taiwan. Taiwan has also probably known this for a long time and has had time to prepare. Don't be surprised to see a scorched earth delaying action to make China pay for every inch of land taken. Taiwan needs to slow China down to allow allies time to join in. Japan and USA should immediately help, and if they do not you can expect the Taiwanese media to be screaming for help on every media channel they have. I don't see the American people allowing the USA leadership to stay out of it, especially after the escalating tensions with China. Without help, Taiwan falls.

The most worrisome option, is if China just flattens Taiwan. Overwhelming damage (non-nuclear) used as an example to other potential targets. It sets the tone for don't mess with China. China would then have to rebuild and repopulate the island. China has shown that they will just build cities for no reason. Taiwan as we know it would be gone. This would be more difficult to spin internally, but not so difficult that this option is completely off the table. This option may be more feasible if initial attacks on Taiwan failed miserably for China. Then the propaganda machine would have more leverage. If this option occurs, would other countries be more likely to give in to China demands to prevent the same happening to them? Would this level of sacrifice be worth other, larger rewards? Would China care?

What will be telling is how many other countries around the South China sea all respond to a Taiwanese plea for help. Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia may help initially. They may stay out of it to preserve their military resources for further Chinese aggression directly against them. Staying out of it early on will only allow China to defeat them in detail at a later time of China's choosing. China may also choose to leverage the size of their army and push on South Korea and Vietnaml at the same time in a 3 prong attack. 2 land attacks and 1 naval attack may be possible, especially if 1 is a good feint. The purpose mainly to be a distraction for any allied help for Taiwan. Where should allies (USA) respond if all three are attacked? Quick reaction forces tend to be limited in size and number, and splitting them up would reduce their effectiveness. Would USA be able to save multiple states in different zones at same time? Would one have to be sacrificed? Expect a US media blitz and lots of finger pointing in this scenario to further divide any resistance to Chinese aggression. While USA has quick reaction forces that could respond, it will take time for the american war machine (military industrial complex) to crank up to a level that can sustain a war against china. If the quick reaction forces are not enough, or not fast enough, then Taiwan may not have enough time to survive. I suspect that this level of confrontation will be seen coming, and all sides will prepare. Actual kickoff will be at the discretion of the aggressor, and the defenders will have to be prepared to buy time.

For an interesting take on a small island nation fighting a superior power, Tom Kratman's Carrera series (7 books in all) is quite good. It's fiction, but the advanced planning to fight a superior foe is laid out in this story. Unfortunately, I have gone away from reading fiction as reality is much stranger now.

Also, on a slight tangent, if you are interested in a story about a small, capitalistic country fighting against an entrenched bureaucracy controlled by a deep state take a look at David Weber's Honor Harrington Series. The second half of the series develops into something now familiar and has split into 3 different series with parallel story arcs. It's a complicated story. Looking back, it was not only entertaining but now appears to have been prescient.

Nathan Redshield

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Nathan Redshield »

I am leery that the US, especially under President Biden, would even defend Taiwan and Japan. I would expect there to be immediate opposition in Congress and among the American people. Oh, there'd be a little whining from quasi-Buchananites on ANY foreign adventures, but the big problem is that many of the younger sort have been schooled to be pro-Red China and pro-Soviet because such regimes are more in line with Progressive and Democratic values. Further there is the problem of the residue of World War Two propaganda's permeating our society to be anti-Japan enough that the Democrats in Congress might find some clever ways to sabotage coming to the aid of Japan. Of course, back in late 1979 I was expecting a Soviet non-nuclear invasion of Western Europe because Jimmy Carter would have done nothing to stop them and leftist governments in Europe would not have fought the Soviets. Why the Russians/Soviets didn't take the opportunity to save their regime is a mystery. Perhaps tho' the planning for the Warsaw Pact invasion of the West was not so promising to the point of being half-hearted and not even seriously planned.
One thing to note: the Red Chinese I don't think have ever mounted the military moves described above for real. Perhaps they might have the Warsaw Pact's planning problem: how do you plan for an invasion/war you believe you have no real hope of winning? The people in charge of the invasion through the Fulda Gap were denied any information of what was on the other side of the border for fears they would use it to defect. So they obtained the necessary info by going to second-hand bookstores for books and maps of pre-1939 Germany and solved their problem that way. Next, they expected to refuel their tanks and other vehicles by seizing fuel at filling stations as they invaded. Finally, their supply lines to the rear relied on some rail lines with serious capacity problems bordering on running on single track with passing sidings. What kept the peace in Europe was that the Americans believed the Red Army was unstoppable--and the Red Army believed the Americans were unbeatable.
So, what will happen? Who knows? But a lot of people may go through the motions and we'll see..

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

What if the Philippines joins China or South Korea surrenders?

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

It will be interesting to see how the wearing of masks in high heat will effect which side of the divide will be ready to rumble.Will the body politic continue to magnify their ever expanding grasp of an entire economy and power base to where it cannot be contained any longer by the traditional methods of civility and lawful order?

Trevor
Posts: 1106
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Something I'm curious: why don't Russia and Germany have the same kind of loathing for each other Japan and China do? In WWII, Germany launched a war of extermination against them and killed around 10 million Russian soldiers, 15 million civilians, not counting millions more across Eastern Europe. However, while relations aren't what I would call warm, I also don't see the same deep hatred China and Japan have for one another.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Trevor wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 11:07 am
Something I'm curious: why don't Russia and Germany have the same kind of loathing for each other Japan and China do? In WWII, Germany launched a war of extermination against them and killed around 10 million Russian soldiers, 15 million civilians, not counting millions more across Eastern Europe. However, while relations aren't what I would call warm, I also don't see the same deep hatred China and Japan have for one another.
Maybe because the Russians raped and murdered millions of Germans in 1945? The Russians took a horrific and criminal revenge on the German ciillian population. The Chinese never got to that to the Japanese.

John
Posts: 9295
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 24-May-2020 World View: Thanks for your service

To all veterans: Thanks for your service.

To those now in the armed services: Thanks for your service.

To those doctors, nurses and other medical staff working on the front
lines of the war against Covid-19: Thanks for your service.

To all other public employees, including but not limited to police,
firemen, teachers, bus drivers and sanitation workers: Thanks for your
service.

John

utahbob
Posts: 69
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:10 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by utahbob »

Thank you John, it is a honor to serve our constitution and fellow citizens.
You might find this interesting:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hong ... SKBN23101T
The last two sentences are very telling:
"China believes Tsai to be a “separatist” bent on declaring the island’s formal independence. Tsai says Taiwan is already an independent country called the Republic of China, its official name."

I wondering if the CCP can take that laying down?

Also, how long can the Indians and Chinese play games before ordinance starts flying:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian- ... es-2234082

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests